Binary logistic regression—Instrument for assessing museum indoor air impact on exhibits

This paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The prediction of the impact on the exhibits during certain pollution scenarios (environmental impact) was calculated by a mathematical model based on the binary logistic regression; it allows the identification of those environmental parameters from a multitude of possible parameters with a significant impact on exhibitions and ranks them according to their severity effect. Air quality (NO₂, SO₂, O₃ and PM_2.5) and microclimate parameters (temperature, humidity) monitoring data from a case study conducted within exhibition and storage spaces of the Romanian National Aviation Museum Bucharest have been used for developing and validating the binary logistic regression method and the mathematical model. The logistic regression analysis was used on 794 data combinations (715 to develop of the model and 79 to validate it) by a Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20.0). The results from the binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that from six parameters taken into consideration, four of them present a significant effect upon exhibits in the following order: O₃>PM_2.5>NO₂>humidity followed at a significant distance by the effects of SO₂ and temperature. The mathematical model, developed in this study, correctly predicted 95.1 % of the cumulated effect of the environmental parameters upon the exhibits. Moreover, this model could also be used in the decisional process regarding the preventive preservation measures that should be implemented within the exhibition space.

Implications: The paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The mathematical model developed on the environmental parameters analyzed by the binary logistic regression method could be useful in a decision-making process establishing the best measures for pollution reduction and preventive preservation of exhibits.     

Long term and short term coastal line changes of the Eastern Gulf of Finland. Problems of coastal erosion

Traditionally the coastal zone of the easternmost (Russian) part of the Gulf of Finland has not been considered as an area of active litho- and morphodynamics, but a recent study has shown that the easternmost part of the coastal zone suffers from erosion. Within some coastal segments the shoreline recession rate reaches 2 ?C 2.5?m/year. As well as determining the hydrodynamic reasons for recent erosion acceleration, important geological and geomorphic features of coastal zone which influenced the lithodynamics were established. The Kurortny District of St.Petersburg is located along the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland to the west of the St. Petersburg Flood Protection Facility. It has special importance as a unique recreation zone of the North-West of Russia. Coastal erosion is one of the most serious problems of the area. The analysis of historical materials, archive aerial photographs and modern high-resolution satellite images have shown that advancing parts of coast are almost non-existant with most sections of the coast being eroded and further retreating. Field monitoring between 2004 and 2007 showed intense damage to sandy beaches during autumn and winter storms and progressive erosion of the dunes system. Among the most important natural reasons for the erosion processes are that the coastline is open to storm waves induced by westerly and south-westerly winds, the geological structure of coastal area (easily eroded Quaternary deposits) and a sediment deficit. In some areas sediment loss was the result of the submarine coastal slope morphology (a steep slope of a narrow submarine terrace within the area of sediment drift discharge), with erosion of an alongshore submarine sandy terrace and erosion runnels at the depth 8?C12?m. The situation becomes worse due to anthropogenic impact. The southern coastal zone dynamics are also very active. According to an aerial and satellite photos analysis from 1975?C1976 to 1989?C1990, sandy beaches to the west of Lebyazhye village were eroded up to 30?m, and near Bolshaya Izora village up to 70?m. The comparison of coastine GPSsurvey with old nautical and topographic charts published in the 1980s shows the considerable change.     

Gaps and opportunities for the World Heritage Convention to contribute to global wilderness conservation

Wilderness areas are ecologically intact landscapes predominantly free of human uses, especially industrial‐scale activities that result in substantial biophysical disturbance. This definition does not exclude land and resource use by local communities who depend on such areas for subsistence and bio‐cultural connections. Wilderness areas are important for biodiversity conservation and sustain key ecological processes and ecosystem services that underpin planetary life‐support systems. Despite these widely recognized benefits and values of wilderness, they are insufficiently protected and are consequently being rapidly eroded. There are increasing calls for multilateral environmental agreements to make a greater and more systematic contribution to wilderness conservation before it is too late. We created a global map of remaining terrestrial wilderness following the established last‐of‐the‐wild method, which identifies the 10% of areas with the lowest human pressure within each of Earth's 62 biogeographic realms and identifies the 10 largest contiguous areas and all contiguous areas >10,000 km². We used our map to assess wilderness coverage by the World Heritage Convention and to identify gaps in coverage. We then identified large nationally designated protected areas with good wilderness coverage within these gaps. One‐quarter of natural and mixed (i.e., sites of both natural and cultural value) World Heritage Sites (WHS) contained wilderness (total of 545,307 km²), which is approximately 1.8% of the world's wilderness extent. Many WHS had excellent wilderness coverage, for example, the Okavango Delta in Botswana (11,914 km²) and the Central Suriname Nature Reserve (16,029 km²). However, 22 (35%) of the world's terrestrial biorealms had no wilderness representation within WHS. We identified 840 protected areas of >500 km² that were predominantly wilderness (>50% of their area) and represented 18 of the 22 missing biorealms. These areas offer a starting point for assessing the potential for the designation of new WHSs that could help increase wilderness representation on the World Heritage list. We urge the World Heritage Convention to ensure that the ecological integrity and outstanding universal value of existing WHS with wilderness values are preserved.     

Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.     

Express-phytotest for choosing conditions and following process of soil remediation

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Phyto- and bioremediation are perspective methods for soil recultivation. In spite of resistance of plant-hyperaccumulators and degrading microorganisms to...     

Geological factors controlling occurrence and distribution of arsenic in groundwaters from the southern margin of the Duero Basin,Spain

Groundwater from springs and boreholes on the southern edge of the Cenozoic Duero Basin (DB) of Spain has concentrations of arsenic (As) which are commonly above the EC drinking-water limit of 10 μg/L and reach observed values up to 241 μg/L. Groundwater compositions within the sedimentary aquifer vary from Ca–HCO₃ type, variably affected by evaporation and agricultural pollution at shallow levels, to Na–HCO₃ compositions in deeper boreholes of the basin. Groundwater conditions are mainly oxidising, but reducing groundwaters exist in sub-basins within the aquifer, localised flow paths likely being influenced by basement structure. Arsenic concentrations are spatially variable, reaching up to 38 μg/L in springs of the Spanish Central System (SCS) basement aquifer and up to 62 μg/L in springs from the DB. Highest As concentrations are associated with the Na–HCO₃ compositions in deep boreholes (200–450 m depth) within the DB. These have high pH values (up to 9.6) which can give rise to associated elevated concentrations of V and U (up to 64 and 30 μg/L, respectively). In the deep borehole waters of the DB, oxidising flows derived from the mineralised igneous–metamorphic basement and discharging via major faults, and are considered the origin of the higher concentrations. Compositions are consistent with desorption of As and other anionic species from metal oxyhydroxides in an oxic environment. Under locally reducing conditions prevalent in some low-flow parts of the DB, an absence of detectable dissolved As is coincident with low or undetectable SO₄ concentrations, and consistent with loss via formation of authigenic sulphide minerals. Mitigation measures are needed urgently in this semi-arid region where provision of alternative sources of safe drinking water is logistically difficult and expensive.     

Transplacental amniocentesis: Is it really a higher-risk procedure?

The aim of this study was to compare transplacental with non-transplacental amniocentesis in terms of related complications. Between January 1991 and December 1992, 4564 genetic amniocenteses were performed in 4527 patients (4491 singleton, 35 twin, and one triplet pregnancy) at 15–16 weeks of gestation. All the procedures were ultrasound-guided and performed by the same operator. In 1487 cases, an anterior placenta was traversed with the needle, whereas in 3077 cases, the needle was inserted directly into the amniotic cavity without traversing the placenta. After the exclusion of patients in whom amniotic cell culture failed or in whom an abnormal karyotype was obtained, and of patients lost to follow-up, a total of 4454 patients (98 per cent) were followed for 30 days after amniocentesis. Two spontaneous abortions occurred after a transplacental procedure, and five after a non-transplacental procedure (P = not significant). There were no episodes of amniotic fluid leakage in the first group, whereas 16 ruptures of the membranes that resolved spontaneously occurred in the second group (P<0·01). Our data suggest that transplacental amniocentesis carries a similar abortive risk to and a lower risk of transient rupture of the membranes than non-transplacental amniocentesis and may therefore be preferred at the gestational period examined (15–16 weeks). However, the risk of feto-maternal haemorrhage, which is reported to be higher for a transplacental procedure, must be considered in the case of an anterior placenta.     

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Larix Spp. and Pinus Sylvestris and Their Climatypes in Siberia

Inter- and intraspecific effects of climate change were assessed for the dominant conifers of Siberia (60–140^∘E and 48–75^∘N): Larix spp. (L. sibirica, L. dahurica, and L. sukaczewii) and Pinus sylvestris . The approach employed a tri-variate (degree-days above 5 ^∘C, degree-days below 0 ^∘C, and a moisture index) estimate of the climatic envelope within which exists the actual ecological distribution of a species and their constituent climatypes (genotypes physiologically attuned to similar environments). Limits of the actual ecological distribution were approximated by reducing the climatic envelope according to effects of permafrost and interspecific competition. Climatypes were mapped within the climatic envelope according to the climatic interval that must separate populations for reasonable assurance of genetic differentiation. This interval was calculated from response functions that related 13-year growth and survival of a species to the difference in climate between the provenance of a climatype and the climate of numerous test sites distributed across Russia. Mapping species' distributions and their climatypes was done for the contemporary climate and for future climates predicted by the HadCM3GGa1 scenario of Hadley Centre. The results showed that if the forests of the future are to reflect the adaptedness of today, the distribution of species will shift and genotypes within species will be redistributed. Some contemporary climatypes are projected to disappear from Siberia while others common elsewhere would evolve. To mitigate these effects, climatypes should be transferred today to the expected future location of their climatic optima, a distance that is likely to approach 700–1200 km for these species.     

Effects of food availability on dispersal and cub sex ratio in the Mednyi Arctic fox

Since the Pleistocene, Arctic foxes, Alopex lagopus, on Mednyi Island in the North Pacific have been isolated in a small area with rich food resources and no other terrestrial carnivores. This situation provides an unusually simple system within which the effect of food dispersion on demography and social organisation was examined. We studied the composition, location and dispersal of 67 Arctic fox groups and mapped their major food resources (seabird colonies) during 1994–2000 on Mednyi. We compared our observations with the predictions of models of sex-ratio determination. Our observations are most consistent with the predictions of Julliard's (2000) model, where mothers are expected to produce more offspring of the most dispersing sex in low-quality habitats, and more offspring of the most philopatric sex in high-quality habitats. The polygynous foxes on Mednyi Island lived where the principal food resources were patchily distributed (present on 11% of the shoreline), and cub survival to dispersal age or reproductive adult was higher in rich (25/45) than in poor (24/79) home ranges. Furthermore, dispersal was strongly sex-biased: most females (60%) remained on their natal ranges, whereas very few males (9%) did so. Significantly more female than male cubs (54 compared with 24) emerged from dens in resource rich ranges, whereas the sex ratio on poor ranges was approximately equal (51 females and 56 males). While our observations are also to some extent consistent with the local resource enhancement (LRE) hypothesis (which predicts a bias towards the sex most likely to cooperate with parents), this does not account for the observed spatial variability.     

Positive correlation between helpers at nest and nestling immune response in a cooperative breeding bird

In cooperatively breeding species, helpers may contribute to the success of the brood by increasing the number of independent offspring, but also, they may affect offspring condition and, hence, their survival and recruitment into the breeding population. This second type of benefits is rarely included in theoretical models or assessed in field studies. Immune response is a good proxy of individual quality and fitness, and there is good evidence that the performance of the immune system of chicks during the nestling phase is related to their chances of survival and future reproduction. However, no study has so far explored whether helpers at the nest might contribute to enhance immune functioning of nestlings in species with a cooperative breeding system. Here we investigate this issue in the azure-winged magpie (Cyanopica cyanus) and found for the first time a positive correlation between the number of helpers at nest and the cell-mediated immune response of nestlings. This effect was not explained by a general improvement of body condition of chicks because it was independent of individual variation in body mass or tarsus length. Our results suggest that helping can have subtle effects on the quality of offspring that may influence their survival and future reproduction.