North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems

Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected into the future according to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios of three General Circulation Models for three periods, the decades surrounding 2030, 2060, and 2090. Prominent in the projections were (1) expansion of climates suitable for the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mexico, (2) expansion of climates typifying desertscrub biomes of western USA and northern Mexico, (3) stability of climates typifying the evergreen-deciduous forests of eastern USA, and (4) northward expansion of climates suited to temperate forests, Great Plains grasslands, and montane forests to the detriment of taiga and tundra climates. Maps indicating either poor agreement among projections or climates without contemporary analogs identify geographic areas where land management programs would be most equivocal. Concentrating efforts and resources where projections are more certain can assure land managers a greater likelihood of success.     

How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.     

Two (or three) is not equal to one: Multiple jobholding as a neglected topic in organizational research

The objective of this Incubator is to stimulate research in the area of multiple jobholding (MJH), a long‐neglected topic in organizational behavior. We first discuss the prevalence of, and motivation for, MJH and then discuss possible dangers and benefits of MJH. Throughout, we discuss ideas for future research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acute effects of removing large fish from a near-pristine coral reef

Large animals are severely depleted in many ecosystems, yet we are only beginning to understand the ecological implications of their loss. To empirically measure the short-term effects of removing large animals from an ocean ecosystem, we used exclosures to remove large fish from a near-pristine coral reef at Palmyra Atoll, Central Pacific Ocean. We identified a range of effects that followed from the removal of these large fish. These effects were revealed within weeks of their removal. Removing large fish (1) altered the behavior of prey fish; (2) reduced rates of herbivory on certain species of reef algae; (3) had both direct positive (reduced mortality of coral recruits) and indirect negative (through reduced grazing pressure on competitive algae) impacts on recruiting corals; and (4) tended to decrease abundances of small mobile benthic invertebrates. Results of this kind help advance our understanding of the ecological importance of large animals in ecosystems.     

Contemporary Environmental Art in China: Portraying Progress,Politics, and Ecosystems

Art has long been an important force in environmental movements. In China, environmental art is a fast-growing sector of the art scene. This new area of emphasis is expanding the function of art and aiding in China’s environmental movement by challenging both imported Western practices and Maoist era philosophy, thereby opening up new ways of considering the relationship between human “progress,” political systems, economic practices, and their repercussions on existing ecosystems. I turn to artist Xu Xiaoyan’s paintings to explore how the notion of “progress” can be challenged through art. I use Deleuze and Guattari’s theory of deterritorialization and reterritorialization to map how Xu’s art offers viewers space to think outside dominant paradigms, creates the potential for changes in human consciousness, considers the environment as a composition of relationships and interactions, and provokes discussion concerning the impact of linear notions of time on human conceptions of nature.     

Spatial distribution and quantification of endocrine-disrupting chemicals in Sado River estuary, Portugal

The important Portuguese Sado River estuary has never been investigated for the presence of potentially endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), such as natural estrogens (estradiol, estrone), pharmaceutical estrogens (17α-ethynylestradiol), phytoestrogens (daidzein, genistein and biochanin A), or industrial chemicals (4-octylphenol, 4-nonylphenol, and bisphenol A). Thus, the main objective of this study was to evaluate their presence at 13 sampling points distributed between both the industrial and the natural reserve areas of the estuary, zones 1 and 2, respectively. For that, water samples collected in summer and winter were processed by solid phase extraction and analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection and gas chromatography–mass spectroscopy. Results showed that estrone, ethynylestradiol, all the aforementioned phytoestrogens as well as bisphenol A and 4-octylphenol were found in zone 1. In zone 2, neither estrogens nor 4-OP were found. However, in the same zone, daidzein (500 ng/L) and genistein (320 ng/L) attained their highest levels in summer, whereas biochanin A peaked in winter (170 ng/L). Furthermore, bisphenol A was also found in some areas of zone 2, but showed similar concentrations in both surveys (about 220 ng/L). This study demonstrated that the Sado River estuary had low EDCs levels, suggesting that the Sado’s high hydrodynamic activity may be involved in the dilution of local pollution. It was suggested that at the current levels of concentrations, all assayed EDCs are unlikely to individually cause endocrine disruption in local animals. However, under a continuous exposure scenario, an additive and/or synergistic action of the estrogenic chemicals load can not be excluded, and so, continuous monitoring is advisable.     

Carbon monoxide concentrations in Santiago City at street levels and their vertical gradient

Carbon monoxide concentrations were measured at ground level (1 m) near heavy traffic streets in downtown Santiago de Chile in periods of low (November and December), intermediate (April) and high (May) ambient concentrations. Also, measurements were carried out at several heights (from 1 to 127 m) in Santiago’s main street during winter time. Measurements carried out at ground level show maximum values during the morning rush hour, with values considerably higher than those reported by the urban air quality network, particularly in summer time. However, the measured values are below air quality standards. Vertical CO profiles were measured in a tower located in the center of downtown. Below 40 m (average altitude of neighboring buildings), the profiles do not show a consistent vertical gradient, with CO concentrations increasing or decreasing with height, regardless of atmospheric stability. In this low altitude range, the observed vertical profiles are poorly predicted by a street canyon model, and the measured concentrations can not be described by a simple exponential decay. At higher altitudes (40 and 127 m) a negative gradient in CO concentrations is observed, both for stable and unstable atmospheric conditions. The values of CO measured at 127 m are relatively well described by an Eulerian dispersion model running with current CO emission inventories for Santiago, although this model tends to predict stepper CO gradients than the observed ones.