Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region1

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.     

Faith-based climate action in Christian congregations: mobilisation and spiritual resources

This article seeks to explain how and why church congregations mobilise on environmental issues and what – if anything – is distinctive about that mobilisation. Building on and adapting Resource Mobilisation Theory (RMT), we develop the idea of “spiritual resources” to help explain how a collection of spiritual identities, values, symbols and narratives can facilitate distinctive collective action on environmental issues. Our analysis draws on data derived from an in-depth case study of climate active groups in Scotland. It includes content analysis of websites, news stories as well as ethnographic observation of selected church and secular groups engaged in climate activity. We find church groups do enjoy a distinct set of resources – comprising tradition, rituals and symbols shaped by theology and doctrine – which are not wholly captured by other explanations of climate mobilisation. While these spiritual resources do not directly translate into specific environmental or climate action they can, especially when combined with other resources, lead to environmental activities distinctly motivated, and distinctly practised at the individual and community level.     

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Modelling the Choice Between Multiple-Use vs. Specialised Forest Management and its Impact on Forest Management Costs

Forests provide ecosystem services, including timber production. In some cases, private forest owners perform management actions in order to enhance the provision of such services, or they may be encouraged by public policies and payments. This paper focuses specifically on the decision to set forest land aside for biodiversity conservation, as part of the more general question of the efficiency of multiple-use vs. specialised management of forest lands. We propose an econometric analysis to identify factors in the set-aside choice and measure the impact of this decision on forest management costs. The results show that the set-aside choice depends on the landowners’ income and motivations related to forest amenities. The choice of specialised management, as reflected in the set-aside decision, has a significant and positive impact on the intensity of management in the remainder of the forest and on management costs. From a policy implications point of view, these results suggest that instruments such as forest certification, subsidies and reverse auctions for conservation will be most likely to attract the interest of those forest owners with personal motivations and forest properties that offer both benefit and cost advantages in opting for such specialised management strategies.

     

Identifying important species that amplify or mitigate the interactive effects of human impacts on marine food webs

Some species may have a larger role than others in the transfer of complex effects of multiple human stressors, such as changes in biomass, through marine food webs. We devised a novel approach to identify such species. We constructed annual interaction-effect networks (IENs) of the simulated changes in biomass between species of the southeastern Australian marine system. Each annual IEN was composed of the species linked by either an additive (sum of the individual stressor response), synergistic (lower biomass compared with additive effects), or antagonistic (greater biomass compared with additive effects) response to the interaction effect of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and fisheries. Structurally, over the simulation period, the number of species and links in the synergistic IENs increased and the network structure became more stable. The stability of the antagonistic IENs decreased and became more vulnerable to the loss of species. In contrast, there was no change in the structural attributes of species linked by an additive response. Using indices common in food-web and network theory, we identified the species in each IEN for which a change in biomass from stressor effects would disproportionately affect the biomass of other species via direct and indirect local, intermediate, and global predator–prey feeding interactions. Knowing the species that transfer the most synergistic or antagonistic responses in a food-web may inform conservation under increasing multiple-stressor impacts.