Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Simulation of germination of pioneer species along an experimental drought gradient

The germination of ten plant species from the Iberian Peninsula was assessed along a water deficit gradient between -0. 1652 (moist) and -0.4988 MPa (dry) of osmotic potential, created by addition of increasing concentrations of polyethylene glycol (PEG 6000) to distilled water in which plants were grown hydroponically. The level and rate of germination of Daucus carota and Thapsia villosa significantly decreased with decreasing psi. Seeds of Dactylis glomerata and Dittrichia viscosa had positive germination responses to low osmotic potentials; germination of Epilobium hirsutum was not affected by osmotic potential. Germination of Medicago arabica, Cynosurus cristatus, Cistus ladanifer and Cistus albidus, was no favored by the addition of polyethylene glycol (PEG). Germination of Foeniculum vulgare and Thapsia villosa was inhibited by PEG.     

Effects of ultraviolet radiation and contaminant-related stressors on arctic freshwater ecosystems

Climate change is likely to act as a multiple stressor, leading to cumulative and/or synergistic impacts on aquatic systems. Projected increases in temperature and corresponding alterations in precipitation regimes will enhance contaminant influxes to aquatic systems, and independently increase the susceptibility of aquatic organisms to contaminant exposure and effects. The consequences for the biota will in most cases be additive (cumulative) and multiplicative (synergistic). The overall result will be higher contaminant loads and biomagnification in aquatic ecosystems. Changes in stratospheric ozone and corresponding ultraviolet radiation regimes are also expected to produce cumulative and/or synergistic effects on aquatic ecosystem structure and function. Reduced ice cover is likely to have a much greater effect on underwater UV radiation exposure than the projected levels of stratospheric ozone depletion. A major increase in UV radiation levels will cause enhanced damage to organisms (biomolecular, cellular, and physiological damage, and alterations in species composition). Allocations of energy and resources by aquatic biota to UV radiation protection will increase, probably decreasing trophic-level productivity. Elemental fluxes will increase via photochemical pathways.     

Vapour pressures, aqueous solubility, Henry's law constants and air/water partition coefficients of 1,8-dichlorooctane and 1,8-dibromooctane

New data on the vapour pressures and aqueous solubility of 1,8-dichlorooctane and 1,8-dibromooctane are reported as a function of temperature between 20 °C and 80 °C and 1 °C and 40 °C, respectively. For the vapour pressures, a static method was used during the measurements which have an estimated uncertainty between 3% and 5%. The aqueous solubilities were determined using a dynamic saturation column method and the values are accurate to within ±10%. 1,8-Dichlorooctane is more volatile than 1,8-dibromooctane in the temperature range covered (p_sat varies from 3 to 250 Pa and from 0.53 to 62 Pa, respectively) and is also approximately three times more soluble in water (mole fraction solubilities at 25 °C of 5.95 × 10⁻⁷ and 1.92 × 10⁻⁷, respectively). A combination of the two sets of data allowed the calculation of the Henry’s law constants and the air water partition coefficients. A simple group contribution concept was used to rationalize the data obtained.     

Modeling lead bioavailability and bioaccumulation by Lumbriculus variegatus using artificial particles. Potential use in chemical remediation processes

Artificial particles, specifically a diverse selection of chromatographical resins, have been recommended and used as a useful experimental model to predict the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of sediment-bound organic chemicals. In this work the same experimental model was adopted to investigate the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of lead by the freshwater oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus. Particle-water partition coefficients were also determined. Sand particles and the anionic exchange resin promoted a similar uptake and bioaccumulation of lead. Instead, in the presence of the cationic exchanger the metal was not detected in the animals. For neutral particles, the uptake and accumulation depended on the chemistry of the functional groups at the active sites. In addition, a significant negative correlation was found between bioaccumulation and the particle-water partition coefficients. These studies may help to develop alternative methods for chemical remediation of lead-contaminated aquatic systems.     

Statistical evaluation of chronic toxicity data on aquatic organisms for the hazard identification: the chemicals toxicity distribution approach

Presently, in the Globally Harmonised System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals the classification of substances for long-term effects to aquatic life is based on acute toxicity in combination with degradation and/or bioaccumulation potential. Recently an OECD Working Group was created to develop the classification scheme to accommodate chronic toxicity data related to aquatic organisms for assigning a chronic hazard category. This study focuses on a new approach for setting chronic toxicity cut-off values based on Chemicals Toxicity Distributions (CTDs). A CTD is obtained through statistical fitting of the data used by regulatory bodies for setting hazard-based classifications. The CTDs were made using the lowest aquatic NOEC value of each chemical. A review of different toxicological sources reporting acute aquatic toxicities was carried out. Initially, the data were arranged according to the specific source and distributions for key taxonomic groups (i.e. fishes, crustaceans and algae) were evaluated separately. In most cases, no significant departures from normality were observed. Thereafter, a compiled database containing >900 values was developed and the CTDs were constructed for each taxonomic group. Significant deviation from normality (P < 0.05) was observed in the fishes and crustaceans' CTDs. However, this deviation was apparently produced by the presence of only seven values with NOECs <1 x 10(-5) mg l(-1), while high correlation between the data and the normal scores (r-values>or= 0.989) indicated that the data were samples from normal distributions. From these observations, potential cut-off values would allow quantitative estimations of the percentage of chemicals falling into each specific category. This approach results in a simple classification hazard scheme where most chemicals are covered in one of the categories, allowing a clear distribution of the chemicals among three categories for chronic toxicity.