Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees. Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios.     

Can the envisaged reductions of fossil fuel CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions be detected by atmospheric observations?

The lower troposphere is an excellent receptacle, which integrates anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions over large areas. Therefore, atmospheric concentration observations over populated regions would provide the ultimate proof if sustained emissions changes have occurred. The most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), also shows large natural concentration variations, which need to be disentangled from anthropogenic signals to assess changes in associated emissions. This is in principle possible for the fossil fuel CO(2) component (FFCO(2)) by high-precision radiocarbon ((14)C) analyses because FFCO(2) is free of radiocarbon. Long-term observations of (14)CO(2) conducted at two sites in south-western Germany do not yet reveal any significant trends in the regional fossil fuel CO(2) component. We rather observe strong inter-annual variations, which are largely imprinted by changes of atmospheric transport as supported by dedicated transport model simulations of fossil fuel CO(2). In this paper, we show that, depending on the remoteness of the site, changes of about 7-26% in fossil fuel emissions in respective catchment areas could be detected with confidence by high-precision atmospheric (14)CO(2) measurements when comparing 5-year averages if these inter-annual variations were taken into account. This perspective constitutes the urgently needed tool for validation of fossil fuel CO(2) emissions changes in the framework of the Kyoto protocol and successive climate initiatives.     

Modeling atmospheric mercury deposition in the vicinity of power plants

Two mathematical models of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury (Hg), an Eulerian grid-based model and a Gaussian plume model, are used to calculate the atmospheric deposition of Hg in the vicinity (i.e., within 50 km) of five coal-fired power plants. The former is applied using two different horizontal resolutions: coarse (84 km) and fine (16.7 km). More than 96% of the power plant Hg emissions are calculated with the plume model to be transported beyond 50 km from the plants. The grid-based model predicts a lower fraction to be transported beyond 50 km: >91% with a coarse resolution and >95% with a fine resolution. The contribution of the power plant emissions to total Hg deposition within a radius of 50 km from the plants is calculated to be <8% with the plume model, <14% with the Eulerian model with a coarse resolution, and <10% with the Eulerian model with a fine resolution. The Eulerian grid-based model predicts greater local impacts than the plume model because of artificially enhanced vertical dispersion; the former predicts about twice as much Hg deposition as the latter when the area considered is commensurate with the resolution of the grid-based model. If one compares the local impacts for an area that is significantly less than the grid-based model resolution, then the grid-based model may predict lower local deposition than the plume model, because two compensating errors affect the results obtained with the grid-based model: initial dilution of the power plant emissions within one or more grid cells and enhanced vertical mixing to the ground.     

Attraction to Gamma-Irradiated Wheat in the Angoumois Grain Moth

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate–pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.     

How Widely Applicable is River Basin Management? An Analysis of Wastewater Management in an Arid Transboundary Case

The basin scale has been promoted universally as the optimal management unit that allows for the internalization of all external effects caused by multiple water uses. However, the basin scale has been put forward largely on the basis of experience in temperate zones. Hence whether the basin scale is the best scale for management in other settings remains questionable. To address these questions this paper analyzes the economic viability and the political feasibility of alternative management options in the Kidron/Wadi Nar region. The Kidron/Wadi Nar is a small basin in which wastewater from eastern Jerusalem flows through the desert to the Dead Sea. Various options for managing these wastewater flows were analyzed ex ante on the basis of both a cost benefit and a multi-criteria analysis. The paper finds that due to economies of scale, a pure basin approach is not desirable from a physical and economic perspective. Furthermore, in terms of political feasibility, it seems that the option which prompts the fewest objections from influential stakeholder groups in the two entities under the current asymmetrical political setting is not a basin solution either, but a two plant solution based on an outsourcing arrangement. These findings imply that the river basin management approach can not be considered the best management approach for the arid transboundary case at hand, and hence is not unequivocally universally applicable.     

patterns and trends in levels of suspended particulate matter

The National Air Surveillance Network (NASN) has collected samples of suspended particulate matter since 1957. These data values are graphically summarized by the application of Whittaker-Henderson Type A curve-smoothing formulas to 10 years of data. Fifty-eight urban sites and 20 nonurban sites are studied by this technique, which permits an intuitive grasp of the underlying cyclical patterns as well as long-term trends in nationwide levels of suspended particulate matter. Seasonal patterns are evident for many urban and nonurban sites, although sharp contrasts in seasonal characteristics exist between the two types of sites. Long-term levels tend slightly downward at many urban locations, but the opposite effect is observed at many nonurban sites.     

"Fuel Cleaning" and Materials Separation at Waste-to-Energy Plants

Separation of materials from municipal waste streams is not recycling. Successful recycling is demand-pulled rather than supply-driven; it depends on local markets that reuse separated materials. For this reason EPA's Office of Solid Waste has opposed national mandates for materials separation which do not address associated markets. But a recent Air Act decision could reverse that stance, potentially mandating high levels of materials separation for every new waste-to-energy (WTE) facility.

The decision holds that Best Available Control Technology (BACT) requires PSD permit applicants to consider separating "feasible" levels, of each "readily-ascertainable" waste component that contributes to air emissions when incinerated, despite their installation of advanced emissions controls or the lack of any evidence that emission concentrations would be further reduced by such "fuel cleaning." Because total emissions of any facility may always be reduced by requiring it to consume less fuel—or burn gas rather than oil, or use conservation rather than combust at all—the decision could radicalize New Source Review, transforming preconstruction permits from a process meant to assure specific emissions controls to one in which air agencies deny the existence of emitting sources. The decision could also delay preconstruction permits; force downsizing of disposal facilities EPA concedes to be necessary; accelerate landfill closures; inject air permit writers into solid waste management determinations; and make local waste infrastructure more difficult to finance. It demonstrates the slippery slopes created by attempts to convert single-medium statutes into multi-media programs under the banner of "pollution prevention."     

Highlights of the Second International Conference on Managing Hazardous Air Pollutants

As the time approaches for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to evaluate whether risks from electric utility trace substance emissions are of concern, attention is focused on research to clarify the many issues surrounding this topic. Accordingly, more than 230 representatives of industry, government, international research and academic institutions, equipment manufacturers, and engineering service firms attended the Second International Conference on Managing Hazardous Air Pollutants, which was held in Washington, D.C., on July 13–15,1993. Sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in cooperation with the EPA, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), PowerGen, Coal Research Division of the International Energy Agency, and Canadian Electrical Association, the conference featured more than 50 presentations that both asked and answered questions about utility emission sources, the atmospheric fate of emitted substances, health and environmental studies, risk assessment, and control technologies. The diversity of the audience produced a stimulating exchange of findings, interpretations, and assessments of remaining uncertainties. This exchange provided valuable direction for ongoing research activities worldwide.