Characterizing Uncertainty in Daily Streamflow Estimates at Ungauged Locations for the Massachusetts Sustainable Yield Estimator

Hydrologic characterization at ungauged locations is one of the quintessential challenges of hydrology. Beyond simulation of historical streamflows, it is similarly important to characterize the level of uncertainty in hydrologic estimates. In tandem with updates to Massachusetts Sustainable Yield Estimator, this work explores the application of global uncertainty estimates to daily streamflow simulations. Expanding on a method developed for deterministic modeling, this approach produces confidence intervals on daily streamflow developed through nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves; the 95% confidence is examined. Archived cross‐validations of daily streamflows from 66 watersheds in and around Massachusetts are used to evaluate an approach to uncertainty characterization. Neighboring sites are treated as ungauged, producing relative errors that can be resampled and applied to target sites. The method, with some modification, is found to provide appropriately narrow confidence intervals that contain 95% of the observed streamflows in cross‐validation. Further characterizing uncertainty, multiday means of daily streamflow are evaluated. Working through cross‐validation in Massachusetts, two‐ to three‐month averages of daily streamflow show the best performance. These two approaches to uncertainty characterization inform how streamflow simulation produced for prediction in ungauged basins can be used for water resources management.     

Relationships between Danish organic farming and landscape composition

This article presents an investigation of relationships between organic farming and landscape composition in Denmark. Landscape composition was analysed in terms of density of uncultivated landscape elements (I), number of land uses per hectare (II), diversity of land use (III) and mean field size (IV). Two analytical approaches were used. The first was based on an examination of the national agricultural registers for 1998, 2001 and 2004. The second approach used aerial photo interpretation for an analysis of 72 conventional and 40 organic farms within three sample areas for 1982, 1995 and 2002. The national analysis indicated that organic farming has a direct effect on landscape composition. In 2001, organic farms were characterised by a higher number of land uses per ha, a higher land use diversity and smaller mean field sizes. From 1998 to 2004, conversion to organic farming was related to an increasing number of land uses per ha, increasing land-use diversity and decreasing mean field sizes. Relationships between organic farming and landscape composition were independent of variations in regional location, farm size or farm size change. At the level of sample areas, a significant relationship between organic farming and landscape composition was only found for densities of small biotopes. However, when differences in farm size and physical geographical conditions between conventional and organic farms were taken into account, several significant differences in landscape composition were clarified in two of the three sample areas. Furthermore, changes in landscape composition following conversion to organic farming were largely biased by the characteristics of the sample areas. Thus, in contrast to the national level, the sample area study indicated that differences in landscape composition between organic and conventional farms were not a direct implication of organic farming practices, but were related to variations within other parameters and to the location of organically farmed land.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Aerosol physical,chemical and optical properties during the Rocky Mountain Airborne Nitrogen and Sulfur study

During the Rocky Mountain Airborne Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS) study, conducted during the spring and summer of 2006, a suite of instruments located near the eastern boundary of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) measured aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties. Three instruments, a differential mobility particle sizer (DMPS), an optical particle counter (OPC), and an aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), measured aerosol size distributions. Aerosols were sampled by an Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sampler and a URG denuder/filter-pack system for compositional analysis. An Optec integrating nephelometer measured aerosol light scattering. The spring time period had lower aerosol concentrations, with an average volume concentration of 2.2 ± 2.6 μm³ cm^?3 compared to 6.5 ± 3.9 μm³ cm^?3 in the summer. During the spring, soil was the single largest constituent of PM_2.5 mass, accounting for 32%. During the summer, organic carbon accounted for 60% of the PM_2.5 mass. Sulfates and nitrates had higher fractional contributions in the spring than the summer. Variability in aerosol number and volume concentrations and in composition was greater in the spring than in the summer, reflecting differing meteorological conditions. Aerosol scattering coefficients (b_sp) measured by the nephelometer compared well with those calculated from Mie theory using size distributions, composition data and modeled RH dependent water contents.     

Comments on and implications of a steady-state in coastal marine ecosystems

Coastal ecosystems can be thought of as being established by a number of physico-geochemical drivers, e.g. geochemistry and bathymetry of the basins, climate, tidal and freshwater flows, natural and anthropogenic inputs of nutrients and toxins, all of which exert an influence on the resulting communities of organisms. Depending on the interactions among the major drivers, ecosystems may occur on both large and small scales and be basin-wide or within basins. For individual and separate ecosystems to exist with some permanence in time, e.g. reach a steady-state, they also have to be ‘defended’. Defences are mechanisms that counter changes to maintain the status quo. We argue, and present evidence to support the notion, that the defence mechanisms are inextricably tied to primary production and the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter and provide buffers that mitigate potentially adverse impacts by trace toxins. Colloid pumping, production of complexing ligands and sulfide formation are some of the mechanisms that control trace substances. Current methods for assessing ecosystems do not address the issue of steady-state, nor do they take account of defence activities, e.g. buffering. Therefore, they cannot assess the ‘robustness’ of ecosystems or their ability to resist change, for good or bad. Also, defence mechanisms may, for a time, mask future potentially serious impacts, suggesting that monitoring efforts with limited budgets should consider the measurement of the inputs into ecosystems as well as the immediate or short-term result of the inputs.     

Note On a Slurry Method of Particle Induction

A slurry method of induction of test particles into a high-temperature, high-pressure gaseous flow stream is presented. The method can provide accurate control and sensitive adjustment of the particle feed and can have an ameliorative effect on particle statistics.     

Habitat utilization and alteration by the invasive burrowing isopod, Sphaeroma quoyanum, in California salt marshes

In recent years the pace of exotic species introduction and invasion has accelerated, particularly in estuaries and wetlands. Species invasions may affect coastal ecosystems in many ways. Alteration of sedimentary environments, through structure formation and burrowing, has particularly dramatic effects on coastal habitats. This study examines modification of channel bank and marsh edge habitat by the burrowing Australasian isopod Sphaeroma quoyanum Milne Edwards, in created and natural salt marshes of San Diego Bay and San Francisco Bay. Abundance and distribution patterns of this isopod species, its relationships with habitat characteristics, and its effects on sediment properties and bank erosion were examined seasonally, and in several marsh microhabitats. Mean isopod densities were 1541 and 2936 individuals per 0.25 m² in San Francisco Bay, and 361 and 1153 individuals per 0.25 m² in San Diego Bay study sites during December and July 1998, respectively. This isopod forms dense, anastomosing burrow networks. S. quoyanum densities did not differ as a function of location within creeks or location in natural versus created marshes. Burrows, which are on average 6 mm wide and 2 cm long, were associated with firm sediments containing high detrital biomass. Although erosion is a natural process along salt marsh banks, enclosure experiments demonstrated that isopod activities can enhance sediment loss from banks. In areas infested with S. quoyanum, losses may exceed 100 cm of marsh edge per year. The effects of habitat alteration by this invading species are likely to increase in severity in the coastal zone as these ecosystems become degraded. Received: 30 March 2000 / Accepted: 21 September 2000