Geoadditive regression modeling of stream biological condition

Indices of biotic integrity have become an established tool to quantify the condition of small non-tidal streams and their watersheds. To investigate the effects of watershed characteristics on stream biological condition, we present a new technique for regressing IBIs on watershed-specific explanatory variables. Since IBIs are typically evaluated on an ordinal scale, our method is based on the proportional odds model for ordinal outcomes. To avoid overfitting, we do not use classical maximum likelihood estimation but a component-wise functional gradient boosting approach. Because component-wise gradient boosting has an intrinsic mechanism for variable selection and model choice, determinants of biotic integrity can be identified. In addition, the method offers a relatively simple way to account for spatial correlation in ecological data. An analysis of the Maryland Biological Streams Survey shows that nonlinear effects of predictor variables on stream condition can be quantified while, in addition, accurate predictions of biological condition at unsurveyed locations are obtained.     

Spatial modelling for the development of agri-environmental programs

Spatial modelling of environmental indicators has been well established in landscape ecology and in nature conservation on regional and national scales over the recent past. Yet, using spatial information as a basis for the coordination of environmental measures on a trans-national European level reveals several shortcomings and hindrances, ranging from data quality issues and methodological aspects to discussions on how to define ecological indicators across Europe. This paper analyzes the potential of spatial modelling for the development and implementation of agri-environmental measures as part of rural development policies, discussing critical aspects of spatial environmental modelling as well as chances, trends and demands.     

Fluctuating sexual dimorphism and differential hibernation by sex in a primate, the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus)

The aim of this study was to investigate reproductive strategies and their consequences in gray mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus), small solitary nocturnal primates endemic to Madagascar. Previous reports of sexual dimorphism in favor of males and females, respectively, a high potential for sperm competition and pheromonal suppression of mating activity among captive males, led us to investigate mechanisms of intrasexual competition in a wild population. Based on 3 years of mark-recapture data, we demonstrate that sexual dimorphism in this species fluctuated annually as a result of independent changes in male and female body mass. Male body mass increased significantly prior to the short annual mating season. Because their testes increased by 100% in the same period and because their canines are not larger than those of females, we suggest that large male size may be advantageous in searching for estrous females and in enabling them to sustain periods of short-term torpor. In contrast to reports from captive colonies, we found no evidence for two morphologically distinct classes of males. Finally, we also show that most adult males are active throughout the cool dry season that precedes the mating season, whereas most adult females hibernate for several months. This is in contrast to other solitary hibernating mammals, where males typically emerge 1–2 weeks before females. Thus, this first extended field study of M.␣murinus clarified previous conflicting reports on sexual dimorphism and male reproductive strategies in this primitive primate by showing that their apparent deviation from predictions of sexual selection theory is brought about by specific environmental conditions which result in sex-specific life history tactics not previously described for mammals. A general conclusion is that sexual selection can operate more strongly on males without resulting in sexual dimorphism because of independent selection on the same traits in females. Received: 6 July 1997 / Accepted after revision: 28 March 1998