Integrated regional modelling and scenario development to evaluate future water demand under global change conditions

Within climate change impact research, the consideration of socioeconomic processes remains a challenge. Socioeconomic systems must be equipped to react and adapt to global change. However, any reasonable development or assessment of sustainable adaptation strategies requires a comprehensive consideration of human-environment interactions. This requirement can be met through multi-agent simulation, as demonstrated in the interdisciplinary project GLOWA-Danube (GLObal change of the WAter Cycle; ). GLOWA-Danube has developed an integrated decision support tool for water and land use management in the Upper Danube catchment (parts of Germany and Austria, 77,000 km²). The scientific disciplines invoked in the project have implemented sixteen natural and social science models, which are embedded in the simulation framework DANUBIA. Within DANUBIA, a multi-agent simulation approach is used to represent relevant socioeconomic processes. The structure and results of three of these multi-agent models, WaterSupply, Household and Tourism, are presented in this paper. A main focus of the paper is on the development of global change scenarios (climate and society) and their application to the presented models. The results of different simulation runs demonstrate the potential of multi-agent models to represent feedbacks between different water users and the environment. Moreover, the interactive usage of the framework allows to define and vary scenario assumptions so as to assess the impact of potential interventions. It is shown that integrated modelling and scenario design not only provide valuable information, but also offer a platform for discussing complex human-environment-interactions with stakeholders.     

Environmental cross-compliance mitigates nitrogen and phosphorus pollution from Swiss agriculture

In 1993 the Swiss agricultural policy was revised with – amongst other goals – the objective of improving the environmental performance of agriculture. A voluntary agri-environmental scheme to promote integrated production (IP) was introduced. In 1999 the IP standards were integrated in cross compliance requirements and termed Proof of Ecological Performance (PEP). We evaluated the effectiveness of this policy in terms of reducing diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution of ground and surface water. We combined monitoring schemes covering the reference period from before the introduction of IP/PEP (1990–1992) with the evaluation of cause/effect relationships in selected case-study areas. The evaluation showed an overall reduction of diffuse N and P pollution from agriculture even though some goals were not reached. Nitrate leaching declined, but only a 3–4 mg L⁻¹ reduction was observed rather than the intended decrease of 5 mg L⁻¹. The P pollution of surface waters from agriculture decreased by only 10–30% instead of 50%. The intended reduction of the nitrogen surplus of Swiss agriculture by 33% was not attained, but the P surplus of Swiss agriculture was more than halved. IP/PEP practices that improved N and P management included reduced N and P fertiliser inputs and pig and poultry feedstuffs with reduced N and P contents, both of which are a consequence of the requirement of equilibrated farm nutrient balances, as well as increased use of cover cropping and of conservation tillage systems.     

Identification of sex pheromone components of the pea midge, Contarinia pisi (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae)

 Three components in extract of pheromone glands of female pea midges, Contarinia pisi, were found to be active on male pea midge antennae by coupled gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection. The EAD active components were identified as 2-acetoxytridecane, (2S,11S)-diacetoxytridecane, and (2S,12S)-diacetoxytridecane. A blend of these compounds proved to be highly attractive to males in windtunnel experiments. Received: 12 November 1998 / Accepted in revised form: 26 january 1999     

Growth pattern of the sea urchin, Loxechinus albus (Molina, 1782) in southern Chile: evaluation of growth models

The growth pattern of Loxechinus albus in southern Chile was studied using size-at-age data obtained by reading growth bands on the genital plates. The scatter plots of sizes-at-age for samples collected in three different locations indicated that growth is linear between ages 2 and 10. Five different growth models, including linear, asymptotic and non-asymptotic functions, were fitted to the data, and model selection was conducted based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The AIC identified the Tanaka model as the most suitable for two of the three sites. However, the BIC led to the selection of the linear model for all zones. Our results show that the growth pattern of L. albus is different from the predominantly asymptotic pattern that has been reported for other sea urchin species.