Governmental policies drive the LUCC trajectories in the Jianghan Plain

The prosperity of farmers is closely tied to governmental policies. The Jianghan Plain is an important region for commodity grains, cotton and edible oil for China. The trajectories of land use and land cover change (LUCC) of the study area from 1995 to 2010 were studied based on the LUCC database of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The LUCC was characterised by a continuous decrease of arable land and continuous increase of waters and construction land. The LUCC was obviously concurrent with the implementation of related national policies. The transition to construction land was ever well controlled by ‘Notice regarding the further strengthening of land management and arable land protection’ promulgated in 1997. However, it flourished again with the ‘Rise of Central China Strategy’ taking effect since 2006. The transition of construction land to others reflects an uncommon trend, which must be strengthened with the strict implementation of the overall plan, which imposes a limited acreage quota of construction land to each district. The policies were quite contradictory to the transition of waters. LUCC related to waters is most active, which was driven by both natural forces and national policies. Just after the devastating flood of 1998, the state council of China put forward the Green Policy to govern the major rivers. As to the study area, it is mainly to ‘push over dykes to let flood through and return farmland to lakes’. In 2004, the Grain Direct Subsidy Policy was implemented, which, along with the surge in the price of rice, resulted in a strengthening trend of conversion of ponds to paddy fields.     

加油站电气设备安全隐患分析及防范对策

针对加油站电气设备存在的诸多问题,通过对加油站典型电气事故案例分析、电气隐患危害程度分级、第一级电气隐患原因分析、电气防爆检测要求与技术进行总结,对加油站电气设备隐患检查及安全管理提出建议和改进措施,为提升加油站电气安全管理水平提供指导。     

航空装备研制风险的综合赋权-双基点法评估

为实现对航空预研项目技术风险的定量评估,建立技术风险评价指标体系,建立基于综合赋权和双基点方法的综合评估模型,采用层次分析法(AHP)求得主观权重,熵值赋权法求得客观权重,运用线性规划方法求得对2类权重加权的权值,构造综合权重;使用正负理想点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进;实例分析中,通过对某航空预研项目5种不同的方案进行风险评估,得出各方案的优劣度,选出了较为优化的技术方案,该方法可用于指导其他装备研制风险的评估。     

Aerosol optical properties of regional background atmosphere in Northeast China

Aerosol optical properties from 2005 to 2008 at the Longfengshan regional background station in Northeast China were measured and analyzed. The annual mean of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 440 nm for the four years was about 0.27 ± 0.25, 0.39 ± 0.37, 0.35 ± 0.34, and 0.38 ± 0.38, respectively, and the corresponding annual mean for the Angstrom exponent between 440 nm and 870 nm was about 1.43 ± 0.48, 1.23 ± 0.37, 1.53 ± 0.47, and 1.55 ± 0.42. The average monthly AOD_440nm showed similar seasonal variation with a maximum in spring and a minimum in autumn. The monthly means of AOD at 440, 675, 870 and 1020 nm increase from the January to March with the maxima about 0.77 ± 0.04, 0.65 ± 0.04, 0.58 ± 0.06, 0.57 ± 0.07, respectively and decrease from September to February with the minima about 0.32 ± 0.12, 0.22 ± 0.09, 0.15 ± 0.08, and 0.13 ± 0.07 in January. The monthly mean of Angstrom exponent shows a minimum in March (0.97 ± 0.52) and a maximum in September (1.66 ± 0.29). Both the AOD and Angstrom exponent presents single peak distributions of occurrence frequencies. The Longfenshan data showed high AODs (>1.00) both clustering in the fine mode growth wing and the coarse mode. Two typical cases under dust and haze conditions showed that the AOD under dusty day decreased from 2.20 to 1.20 and the Angstrom exponent increased from 0.10 to 1.00. On the contrast, the AOD under haze day remained relatively stable about 0.90 and the Angstrom exponent was around 1.40. The 3-day backtrajectory analysis at Longfengshan illustrated that the air-masses near ground on the dust day were from Bohai Sea and passed through Liaodong Peninsula and Northeast plain in China. But the air-masses on 500 m AGL were originated from western Mongolia and crossed Gobi deserts, Otindag Sand Land and Horqin Sand Land in Northeast China. The air-masses at Longfengshan near ground 500 m and 1000 m AGL on the haze days were from North China Region and passed through Northeast Heavy Industrial Base in Northeast China.     

汶川地震灾区小流域洪水计算方法初探

汶川地震灾区小流域山洪不仅造成巨大损失,同时也是泥石流等灾害的激发因素,探寻一种准确且可操作的洪水峰值流量计算方法对防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文选择不同产流和汇流计算方法,组合成不同水文模型,进行小流域洪水过程计算,对模拟结果和参数选择进行对比,旨在探究最适合该地区的小流域水文计算方法。分别选择SCS曲线法、Green-Ampt入渗法、初损稳渗法进行坡面产流计算,应用SCS单位线法、Snyder单位线法和运动波方程进行坡面和沟道汇流计算,组合成5种小流域产汇流计算模型,利用6场洪水进行参数率定和结果验证。模拟结果对比分析,得出SCS曲线法是最适宜的产流模型,其与SCS单位线、运动波汇流计算方法组合而成的SCS和SKK模型,峰现时间的模拟误差最小,在0~25 min之间;洪峰流量模拟的相对误差较小,平均误差不超过4%;洪水总量模拟误差在10%左右。另外,这两种模型参数设置及确定较简单,更适合在数据稀缺的小流域中进行洪水模拟应用。研究可为汶川地震灾区小流域山洪和泥石流等灾害的流量估算提供方法和参数借鉴。     

环境保护成为长三角城市新型城镇化建设共识

2014年3月国家发展和改革委员会(简称国家发改委)颁布的《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》为今后我国城镇化发展指明了方向,成为未来城镇化发展的纲领性文件。长江三角洲(简称长三角)是我国最大也是最强的经济区域,是我国仅有的世界级城市群,作为国家新型城镇化所在地,有23个成员城市列入国家试点。在《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》颁布一周年之际,长江三角洲城市经济协     

A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

环境中重金属和有机污染物的物种敏感性分布研究进展

物种敏感性分布法(SSD,Species Sensitivity Distribution)是一种相对于传统评价因子法具有更高置信度的统计学外推方法,在环境质量基准制定及生态风险评价中得到广泛应用。本文对近年来国内外重金属和有机污染物的物种敏感性分布研究成果进行了综述,阐述了在水体、土壤和沉积物等环境介质中应用SSD方法开展生态风险评价的研究现状,从SSD模型选择、毒性数据点筛选等方面对影响SSD模型不确定性的因素进行探讨,并对SSD方法在生态风险评价领域的应用进行了展望。     

纳米铜颗粒的种间毒性关系

纳米颗粒的种间毒性关系尚无明确结论,因此很难判断纳米颗粒对未进行毒性测试的物种的风险如何。本文作者将5种水蚤(Daphnia magna, Daphnia pulex, Daphnia galeata, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Chydorus sphaericus)暴露于4种不同粒径的纳米铜颗粒(CuNPs)和1种亚微米铜颗粒的悬浊液中,考察物种的形态特征与CuNPs急性毒性的关系。结果显示,杆状的CuNPs比球状的CuNPs毒性更低。纳米铜颗粒与溶出铜离子均对CuNPs的毒性有贡献,其中,当新生蚤的体长、体表面积和身体体积更小时,5种悬浊液中颗粒的毒性更大。5种蚤的身体体积与5种CuNPs的毒性显著相关(r_adj²>0.51, p < 0.001),78-nm CuNPs与蚤身体体积的相关性最好 (r_adj²?=?0.95, p < 0.001)。这个研究可以为纳米颗粒对有相似外形特征的物种进行毒性种间外推提供线索。
精选自Lan Song, Martina G. Vijver, Geert R. de Snoo and Willie J.G.M. Peijnenburg. Assessing toxicity of copper nanoparticles across five cladoceran species. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3000
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3000/full     

A pilot study on the effect of Cu,Zn, and Cd on the spectral curves and chlorophyll of wheat canopy at tiller stage

The aim of this study was to investigate canopy spectral reflectance responses to different levels of heavy metals copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) induced stress. Random blocks design experiment was conducted to simulate Cu, Zn, and Cd at five concentration levels. Chlorophyll and visible and near infrared canopy reflectance were measured for each treatment 56 days after seeding using chlorophyll meter SPAD-502 and spectroradiometer, respectively. New vegetative indices termed ratio of inclination angles (RIA), MERIS (the medium resolution imaging spectrometer) terrestrial chlorophyll index (MTCI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to assess the response of canopy spectral reflectance to different heavy metal levels. Significant spectral variability especially in blue, red, and near infrared reflectance was observed for different heavy metal treatments. One-sample test showed significant difference for NDVI, MTCI, and RIA among five-level treatments at the 0.01 level. Correlation analysis demonstrated that the two vegetative indices (RIA and MTCI) were significantly correlated with chlorophyll meter values for Cd, Cu, and Zn treatments. However, NDVI was only significantly correlated with chlorophyll meter values for Cu and Zn treatments. Linear regression analysis also illustrated that RIA and MTCI were potential indices for predicting chlorophyll concentration with significant F test under Cu-, Zn-, and Cd-mediated stress.