National-scale estimation of changes in soil carbon stocks on agricultural lands

Average annual net change in soil carbon stocks under past and current management is needed as part of national reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate the potential for soils as sinks to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO2. We estimated net soil C stock changes for US agricultural soils during the period from 1982 to 1997 using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) method for greenhouse gas inventories. Land use data from the NRI (National Resources Inventory; USDA-NRCS) were used as input along with ancillary data sets on climate, soils, and agricultural management. Our results show that, overall, changes in land use and agricultural management have resulted in a net gain of 21.2 MMT C year(-1) in US agricultural soils during this period. Cropped lands account for 15.1 MMT C year(-1), while grazing land soil C increased 6.1 MMT C year(-1). The land use and management changes that have contributed the most to increasing soil C during this period are (1) adoption of conservation tillage practices on cropland, (2) enrollment of cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program, and (3) cropping intensification that has resulted in reduced use of bare fallow.     

Interactions between scientific uncertainty and flood management decisions: Two case studies in Colorado

Flood management policies in the United States rely on scientific information about the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and runoff. Yet, the available information is inherently uncertain because of the complexity of meteorological and hydrological processes. In mountainous areas, flood risk can vary greatly even within short distances depending on local climate, topography, soil characteristics, and land use. This paper describes two Colorado cases in which policy makers were presented with conflicting scientific estimates: revision of the Fort Collins floodplain map and modification of the Cherry Creek Dam. The case studies demonstrate that uncertainty can have substantial impacts on regulatory processes, public safety, and costs. The analysis considers the differing perspectives of various participants in the flood management processes, illustrating the interplay between uncertainties attributable to scientific issues and values issues. It suggests that attempts to provide a single “best” estimate do not necessarily meet the decision needs of all stakeholders. Conclusions indicate a need to improve communication about uncertainty when scientific estimates areprovided to decision makers. Furthermore, in highly controversial decisions, it may be necessary to reframe the discussion to consider the values issues raised by scientific uncertainty.     

Harnessing the potential of integrated systematics for conservation of taxonomically complex,megadiverse plant groups

The value of natural history collections for conservation science research is increasingly recognized, despite their well-documented limitations in terms of taxonomic, geographic, and temporal coverage. Specimen-based analyses are particularly important for tropical plant groups for which field observations are scarce and potentially unreliable due to high levels of diversity-amplifying identification challenges. Specimen databases curated by specialists are rich sources of authoritatively identified, georeferenced occurrence data, and such data are urgently needed for large genera. We compared entries in a monographic database for the large Neotropical genus Myrcia in 2007 and 2017. We classified and quantified differences in specimen records over this decade and determined the potential impact of these changes on conservation assessments. We distinguished misidentifications from changes due to taxonomic remodeling and considered the effects of adding specimens and georeferences. We calculated the potential impact of each change on estimates of extent of occurrence (EOO), the most frequently used metric in extinction-risk assessments of tropical plants. We examined whether particular specimen changes were associated with species for which changes in EOO over the decade were large enough to change their conservation category. Corrections to specimens previously misidentified or lacking georeferences were overrepresented in such species, whereas changes associated with taxonomic remodeling (lumping and splitting) were underrepresented. Among species present in both years, transitions to less threatened status outnumbered those to more threatened (8% vs 3%, respectively). Species previously deemed data deficient transitioned to threatened status more often than to not threatened (10% vs 7%, respectively). Conservation scientists risk reaching unreliable conclusions if they use specimen databases that are not actively curated to reflect changing knowledge.     

Advanced driver assistance systems for teen drivers: A national survey of teen and parent perceptions

Abstract

Objective: Recently developed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have the potential to compensate for teen driving errors and reduce overall crash risk. To date, very limited research has been conducted on the suitability of ADAS for teen drivers—the population most likely to benefit from such systems. The opportunity for ADAS to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes involving teen drivers is hindered when there is a lack of trust, acceptance, and use of those technologies. Therefore, there is a need to study teen and parent perceptions of ADAS to help identify and overcome any potential barriers to ADAS use.

Methods: A U.S. national survey was developed based on themes from previously conducted teen and parent ADAS focus groups. Survey topics included trust in ADAS, effect of ADAS on teen driver safety and driving behavior, effect of ADAS on skill development, data privacy, and cybersecurity. Responses included 5-point Likert scales and open-ended questions. The survey was managed through an online respondent panel by ResearchNow. Eligibility criteria included licensed teens (16–19 years) and parents of licensed teens. Teen and parent responses were compared using chi-square statistics in SAS 9.4.

Results: Two thousand and three (teens?=?1,000; parents?=?1,003) respondents qualified for and completed the survey between September 1 and September 20, 2017. Overall, teens (72%) and parents (61%) felt that ADAS would have a positive impact on transportation. However, teens were more likely to exhibit a positive outlook on ADAS, whereas parents were more likely to have a negative outlook (P?<?.01). Teens felt that ADAS would be useful during bad weather or drowsy driving but were less concerned than parents about ADAS intervention during their own risky driving (P?<?.01). The majority of teens (65%) and parents (71%) agreed that teens should learn to drive on vehicles without ADAS, with parents being more likely to agree than teens (P?<?.01). Parents (55%) were more likely than teens (47%) to be concerned about insurance companies keeping track of teen driving data (P?<?.01). Most respondents exhibited some concern of ADAS being susceptible to hacking (57%).

Conclusions: This study represents the first effort to quantify ADAS perceptions among teen drivers and their parents at the U.S. national level. These data highlight potential barriers to ADAS use among teen drivers, including a relative disinterest among teens for ADAS intervention during risky driving as well as concerns among both teens and parents that ADAS will inhibit skill development. These survey findings will help inform educational programs to accelerate fleet turnover and provide the foundation for ADAS optimization and evaluation studies among sociodemographic groups.     

Evidence-based guidelines for automated conservation assessments of plant species

Assessing species’ extinction risk is vital to setting conservation priorities. However, assessment endeavors, such as those used to produce the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, have significant gaps in taxonomic coverage. Automated assessment (AA) methods are gaining popularity to fill these gaps. Choices made in developing, using, and reporting results of AA methods could hinder their successful adoption or lead to poor allocation of conservation resources. We explored how choice of data cleaning type and level, taxonomic group, training sample, and automation method affect performance of threat status predictions for plant species. We used occurrences from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to generate assessments for species in 3 taxonomic groups based on 6 different occurrence-based AA methods. We measured each method's performance and coverage following increasingly stringent occurrence cleaning. Automatically cleaned data from GBIF performed comparably to occurrence records cleaned manually by experts. However, all types of data cleaning limited the coverage of AAs. Overall, machine-learning-based methods performed well across taxa, even with minimal data cleaning. Results suggest a machine-learning-based method applied to minimally cleaned data offers the best compromise between performance and species coverage. However, optimal data cleaning, training sample, and automation methods depend on the study group, intended applications, and expertise.     

Prenatal diagnosis of enteric duplication cyst of the tongue

Cysts located on the tongue are rare and usually diagnosed in childhood. Here we report on the prenatal diagnosis of an unusual cystic malformation of the tongue with heterotopic intestinal tissue explored by prenatal ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging and on its surgical treatment and histological examination. The prenatal differential diagnoses as well as perinatal management of cystic lesions of the tongue are reviewed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood and avalanche hazard in Colorado: Political implications of the new federalism

This article examines the likely impacts of the United States' new federalism on natural hazard land use management in Colorado. Flood and avalanche hazard programs are the focus of the study Both short- and long-term effects of changes in funding are discussed, and the conclusions summarize probable positive and negative program impacts for the state. These results may help researchers and state authorities mitigate similar effects in their states prior to the enactment of new federalism.     

Fetal intestinal loop dilatation: Follow-up and outcome of a series of 133 consecutive cases (the DILDIG study)

Objectives

To define the prognostic markers of fetal dilated bowel loops.

Methods

National non-interventional study of 133 consecutive prenatal observations of dilated loops including ultrasound examinations, complementary laboratory tests, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), outcomes, and postnatal diagnosis.

Results

One hundred twenty seven cases were classified according to outcome: Group 1, very severe (n = 43), Group 2, children needing specific care (n = 39), and Group 3, healthy children (n = 45). Prenatal ultrasound scan suggested duodenal obstruction in 30 cases, small bowel obstruction in 81, colonic obstruction in 11, and diffuse dilatation in 5. Diameter of dilated loops did not significantly differ between the groups. A poor prognosis was significantly associated with duodenal obstruction, genetic anomalies (53% vs. 21.8%), including aneuploidies or CFTR gene mutations and abnormal amniotic fluid biochemistry (86.4% vs. 38.7%). A good prognosis was associated with regression of dilatation and normal MRI.

Conclusion

In this study, postnatal outcomes for fetuses with intestinal dilatation were best predicted by assessing the level of obstruction with prenatal ultrasound and MRI, determining the presence of associated malformations, amniotic fluid biochemical and genetic testing, and monitoring for regression of bowel dilatation. These results should help inform future guidelines on the prenatal and neonatal management of congenital intestinal obstruction.