Patchy distributions: Optimising sample size

A method for estimating sample size which does not require an a priori definition of desired precision, or the assumption that the population is normally distributed with constant variance, has recently been proposed. This paper discusses this method and presents five modifications which make the method easier to use and reduce the probability of estimating a larger sample size than is actually required. The method is extended and used to estimate the mean abundance of patchily distributed benthic organisms. The technique can be used to guide the design of any environmental sampling programme, be it physical, chemical or biological, where comparisons between times and/or locations are required. Trade-offs between numbers of replicates and numbers of levels/sites are discussed.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

Improvement of the BCR three step sequential extraction procedure prior to the certification of new sediment and soil reference materials

The Standards, Measurements and Testing Programme (formerly BCR) of the European Commission proposed a three-step sequential extraction procedure for sediment analysis, following extensive expert consultations and two interlaboratory studies. This scheme was recently used to certify the extractable trace element contents of a sediment reference material (CRM 601). Although this procedure offers a means to ensure the comparability of data in this field, some difficulties concerning the interlaboratory reproducibility still remain, and a new project is currently being conducted to determine the causes of poor reproducibility in the extraction scheme. The final objective of the project is the certification of new sediment and soil reference materials for their extractable contents of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn. This paper presents the results of a small-scale interlaboratory study, which aimed to test a revised version of the extraction schemes by comparing the original and the modified protocols using the CRM 601 sample. This work offers an improvement to the BCR sequential extraction procedure through intercomparison exercises. This improved procedure will allow the obtaining of CRMs to validate analytical data in the analysis of soils and sediments, and it will also facilitate comparability of data in the European Union.     

Determining Ecoregions for Environmental and GMO Monitoring Networks

A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely.     

An Assessment on Variation of Sulphur Dioxide and Particulate Matter in Erzurum (Turkey)

Sulphur dioxide and PM₁₀ levels are investigated in Erzurum during the periods of 1990–2000 heating season to assess air pollution level. For that reason, emissions of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter were calculated by using consumption of fuels and Turkish emission factors. These emission values were evaluated together with air pollution levels, which were measured at six stations in Erzurum atmosphere during 1990–2000 winter periods. Results reveal that in 1990–1994 heating period, there is an increasing trend in the emissions and air pollution levels over Erzurum, and the air quality limits were not met. The daily 24 h limit (short-term limit) was exceeded 127 days in 1992–1993 winter period. The reason for this increase was found to be the switching to use of low-quality fossil fuels instead of cleaner ones. Results also indicated that there was a considerable decrease in emissions of air pollutants and air pollution levels after 1995. This can be explained by the consumption of more high-quality fossil fuels. The correlation coefficient of SO₂ with PM₁₀ is obtained as r² = 0.85, which is a high value supporting the idea that both pollutants are emitted from the same source.     

Atrazine and Alachlor Inputs to Surface and Ground Waters in Irrigated Corn Cultivation Areas of Castilla-Leon Region, Spain

The inputs of atrazine and alachlor herbicides to surface and ground waters from irrigated areas dedicated to corn cultivation in the Castilla-León (C-L) region (Spain) as related to the application of both herbicides were studied. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were used for monitoring the atrazine and alachlor concentrations in 98 water samples taken from these areas. Seventy-nine of the samples were of ground waters and 19 were of surface waters. The concentration ranges of the herbicides detected in the study period (October 1997–October 1998) were 0.04–25.3 g L^–1 in the surface waters and 0.04–3.45 g L^–1 in the ground waters for atrazine, and 0.06–31.9 g L^–1 in the surface waters and 0.05–4.85 g L^–1 in the ground waters in the case of alachlor. The highly significant correlation observed between the concentrations of both herbicides in the surface waters (r = 0.89, p < 0.001) pointed to a parallel transport of atrazine and alachlor to these waters. A study was made of the temporal evolution of the concentrations of both herbicides, and it was found a maximum recharge of atrazine in the ground waters for April 1998 and of alachlor in October 1997 and October 1998. The temporal evolution of the concentrations of both herbicides in surface waters was parallel. The highly significant correlations observed between atrazine concentrations determined by ELISA and by HPLC (r = 0.92, p < 0.001) and between alachlor concentrations also determined by both methods (r = 0.96, p < 0.001) confirmed the usefulness of ELISA for monitoring both herbicides in an elevated number of samples. Using HPLC, the presence in some waters of the alachlor ethanesulfonate (ESA) metabolite was found at a concentration range of 0.52–4.01 g L^–1. However the interference of ESA in the determination of alachlor by ELISA was negligible. The inputs of atrazine and alachlor to waters found in this study, especially the inputs to ground waters, could pose a risk for human health considering that some waters, though sporadically, are even used for human consumption.     

Assessment of Metal Contamination in Doñana National Park (Spain) using Crayfish (Procamburus Clarkii)

Water quality assessment in the Aznalcollar area was attempted using multivariate methods based on heavy metal concentrations in red swamp crayfish (Procamburus clarkii). Trace levels of four heavy metals, copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb), were detected in crayfish from eleven different stations. Principal component analysis (PCA) highlighted a gradient of contamination between the sampling stations. Cluster analysis (CA) distinguished three groups of stations. Discriminant analysis also differentiated three groups. The group centroids of the first discriminant function were used to devise an index that varies according to the source of the crayfish. These standardized values are proposed for use as a water quality index. The ability of this index to successfully predict environmental quality was proved with random samples.     

Fuel characteristics and emissions from biomass burning and land-use change in Nigeria

Nigeria is one of the 13 low-latitude countries that have significant biomass burning activities. Biomass burning occurs in moist savanna, dry forests, and forest plantations. Fires in the forest zone are associated with slash-and-burn agriculture; the areal extent of burning is estimated to be 80% of the natural savanna. In forest plantations, close to 100% of litter is burned. Current estimates of emissions from land-use change are based on a 1976 national study and extrapolations from it. The following non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) trace gas emissions were calculated from savanna burning: methane (CH₄), 145 gigagrams (Gg); carbon monoxide (CO), 3831 Gg; nitrous oxide (N₂O), 2 Gg; and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 49 Gg. Deforestation rates in forests and woodlands are 300 × 10³ ha (kilohectare, or kha) and 200 × kha per year, respectively. Trace gas emissions from deforestation were estimated to be 300 Gg CH₄, 2.4 Gg N₂O, and 24 Gg NO_x. CO₂ emissions from burning, decay of biomass, and long-term emissions from soil totaled 125 561 Gg. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, because greenhouse gas emission inventories from burning, deforestation, and land-use change require two components: fuel load and emission factors. Fuel load is dependent on the areal extent of various land uses, and the biomass stocking and some of these data in Nigeria are highly uncertain.