Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

A survey of antennal responses by five species of coniferophagous bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) to bark volatiles of six species of angiosperm trees

Summary. Using Porapak Q traps, we collected the bark volatiles of six angiosperm trees native to British Columbia: black cottonwood, Populus trichocarpa Torr. & A. Gray (Salicaceae), trembling aspen, P. tremuloides Michx. (Salicaceae), paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marsh. (Betulaceae), bigleaf maple, Acer macrophyllum Pursh (Aceraceae), red alder, Alnus rubra Bong. (Betulaceae), and Sitka alder, A. viridis ssp. sinuata (Regel) á. L?ve & D. L?ve (Betulaceae). Utilising coupled gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection analysis, the captured volatiles were assayed for antennal responses in five species of coniferophagous bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), sympatric with most or all of the angiosperm trees: the Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, the mountain pine beetle, D. ponderosae Hopkins, the spruce beetle, D. rufipennis (Kirby), the western balsam bark beetle, Dryocoetes confusus Swaine, and the pine engraver, Ips pini (Say). The identities of 25 antennally-active compounds were determined by coupled gas chromatographic-mass spectroscopic analysis, and co-chromatographic comparisons with authentic chemicals. The compounds identified were: hexanal, (E)-2-hexenal, (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol, 1-hexanol, heptanal, α-pinene, frontalin, benzaldehyde, β-pinene, 2-hydroxycyclohexanone, 3-carene, limonene, β-phellandrene, benzyl alcohol, (E)-ocimene, salicylaldehyde, conophthorin, guaiacol, nonanal, methyl salicylate, 4-allylanisole, decanal, thymol methyl ether, (E)-nerolidol, and dendrolasin. A number of these compounds are known semiochemicals that are active in the behaviour of other organisms, including bark beetles, suggesting a high degree of semiochemical parsimony. Antennally-active compounds ranged from seven in A. viridis to 17 in P. trichocarpa. The fewest number of compounds (9) were detected by I. pini and the largest number (24) were detected by D. pseudotsugae. Six compounds excited the antennae of all five species of bark beetles. The large number of antennally-active compounds detected in common by numerous bark beetles and present in common in numerous nonhost trees supports the hypothesis of olfaction-based recognition and avoidance of nonhost angiosperm trees during the process of host selection by coniferophagous bark beetles. Received 13 December 1999; accepted 14 March 2000     

Soft intervention technology as a tool for integrated coastal zone management

After introducing soft defence techniques as an alternative to hard defence techniques, the need is emphasized to consider the coastal area as an integral system. By recalling the main driving factors for coastal management: conflict resolution, resilience and sustainability, we logically arrive at the concepts of ecological engineering and ecotechnology, which are increasingly acknowledged as possible solutions to achieve sustainable use of coastal space as a resource. In this context, we refer to the principles of self design and of ecosystem conservation. In order to deal with real situations we are in need of fundamental ‘tools’ for the application of the soft intervention technology approach. We therefore introduce the concept of physiographic units and develop an initial elaboration for a coastal stretch and for coastal wetlands. The latter deserve more attention because of the already established practices of ecotechnology, at least as far as water and soil quality are concerned, but certainly also concerning morphology, especially in the future. We conclude by briefly discussing how activities undertaken in two research projects currently being conducted under the framework of the Marine Science and Technology Program of the Commission of the European Communities are expected to contribute to the concepts introduced here.     

产业与环境：丹麦展望

近20-30年来,很多国家引进了综合性环境保护法律.然而,人们逐渐认识到,在进行具体技术调控的同时,也需要意识上和管理原则上的改变.为帮助各公司在公司层次上减少、评估、监测和控制环境影响,已经开发了各种环境管理技术.本文根据对丹麦公司的一次调查,论述了下列问题:这些技术是如何在工业中采用的?以及发生态度上的变化了吗?     

Is Syllis gracilis (Polychaeta: Syllidae) a species complex? An allozyme perspective

The genetic relationships between morphologically indistinguishable marine and brackish populations of Syllis gracilis Grube, 1840 (Polychaeta: Syllidae) were studied by means of allozyme electrophoresis. Samples of S. gracilis from marine coastal and brackish-water habitats were examined for variation at 13 presumptive loci. In addition, a sample of the closely related species S. prolifera (Krohn, 1852) was analysed. Five loci were multiallelic in at least one population of S. gracilis and eight loci in S. prolifera. Low to moderate levels of within-population genetic variability were found, with average expected heterozygosity values ranging from H = 0.068 (±0.043 SE) to 0.187 (±0.069 SE) in the populations of S. gracilis; higher values were found in S. prolifera (H = 0.325 ± 0.076). The presence of various private alleles indicated a marked genetic divergence among populations of S. gracilis, with Nei's genetic distances ranging from D = 0.000 to 0.833 and a highly significant F _ST value. Furthermore, evidence for strong genetic heterogeneity between two sympatric marine populations was found. UPGMA cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling pointed out a clear genetic divergence between brackish and marine populations. At least two genetically divergent entities occurred in marine and brackish habitats. This could be due to local adaptation of individuals coming from marine populations to brackish habitats, but more presumably to the occurrence of a species complex within S. gracilis. Received: 6 June 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 2000     

Genetic differentiation in a pelagic crustacean (Meganyctiphanes norvegica: Euphausiacea) from the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea

Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars)is a pelagic crustacean that plays a key role in marine food webs of North Atlantic Ocean and marginal seas. We studied eight population samples collected in the European Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. By means of single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP) and direct sequencing, we investigated a segment of 158 base pairs of the mitochondrial gene coding for the subunit 1 of NADH dehydrogenase. We found 12 sequence variants among the 385 individuals studied. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 14.75% of the total genetic variability was explained by differences between populations, thus indicating absence of panmixia for these populations. Pairwise comparisons revealed three distinct genetic pools: the first one represented by Cadiz Bay, the second one by the Ligurian Sea, and the third one included all the NE Atlantic samples. We also investigated one population from the Alboran Sea (within the Mediterranean basin, east of the Strait of Gibraltar). This population was found to be genetically intermediate between the NE Atlantic samples and the Ligurian sample, suggesting that the restriction to the gene flow is not associated with the Strait of Gibraltar, but possibly with the Oran–Almeria oceanographic front. The present work indicates that M. norvegica, although endowed with a high dispersal capacity because of its pelagic habit, can develop separate breeding units inside the same oceanic basin (the Atlantic). Furthermore, the Ligurian sample should be considered as a distinct evolutionary entity, separated from the Atlantic population. Received: 2 May 1999 / Accepted: 26 November 1999     

Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation and phylogeography of oceanic insects (Hemiptera: Gerridae: Halobates spp.)

Relatively few insects have invaded the marine environment, and only five species of sea skaters, Halobates Eschscholtz (Hemiptera: Gerridae), have successfully colonized the surface of the open ocean. All five species occur in the Pacific Ocean, H. germanus White also occurs in the Indian Ocean, whereas H. micans Esch- scholtz is the only species found in the Atlantic Ocean. We sequenced a 780 bp long region of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene (COI) for a total of 66 specimens of the five oceanic Halobates species. Our purpose was to investigate the genetic variation within species and estimate the amount of gene flow between populations. We defined 27 haplotypes for H. micans and found that haplotype lineages from each of the major oceans occupied by this species are significantly different, having sequences containing five to seven unique base substitutions. We conclude that gene flow between populations of H. micans inhabiting the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean is limited and hypothesize that these populations have been separated for 1 to 3 million years. Similarly, there may be limited gene flow between H. germanus populations found in the Pacific and Indian Ocean and between H. sericeus populations inhabiting the northern and southern parts of the Pacific Ocean. Finally, we discuss our findings in relation to recent hypotheses about the influence of oceanic diffusion on the distribution and population structure of oceanic Halobates spp. Received: 29 July 1999 / Accepted: 23 November 1999