Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

公民对全球环境变化的响应——以上海、香港地区为例

工业革命以来，全球环境发生了前所未有的变化，将可能给地球系统带来灾难性后果，究其原因主要是由于人类活动造成的。人的行为深受意识的影响和制约,环境意识对于环境问题的产生和解决至关重要。本文选取上海、香港两个地区来分析公民对环境的关注度、公民的环保意识、环保行为以及公民对政府环境工作的看法和评价，研究公民对全球环境变化反应的区域差异，为政府制定相关环境保护政策提供理论依据。调查结果显示，上海、香港两地公民在很多环境闷题上具有共识。但是。在对手环境状况好转的期待值、参与环境保护活动的积极性、对人为因素主导力量的认识、环境保护与日常生活的切实关系、为环境保护的支付意愿、对于环境教育内容的认可度等方面存在着一定的差异。     

Rapid growth of clones of the red alga Chondrus crispus: applications in assays of toxic substances and in physiological studies

Growth rates of excised apical segments from three Chondrus crispus Stackhouse clones were rapid, reproducible and easily measured using simple equipment. Clonal segments exhibited a high degree of phenotypic stability, with coefficients of variation in growth rates being typically less than 5%. Sensitivity of the assay was demonstrated using 24-h pulses of the toxicants Cu²⁺ (10 to 150 ppb) and the molluscicide Bayluscide (100 to 500 ppb). As a further demonstration of applicability of this assay system, growth rates were measured over two consecutive 24-h photoperiods using a normally pigmented red gametophytic clone and a green colored mutant derived from it. Growth rates were highest in the first hours of the light phase for both clones, with growth of the green mutant being consistently inferior to that of the normally pigmented one. Significant changes were measured with intervals as short as 4 h using only five apical segments for each treatment. The C. crispus assay described is sensitive, relatively rapid, and statistically robust when applied to toxicant testing in seawater and to physiological studies.     

Importance of eating habits and sample size in the estimation of environmental mercury contamination using biological indicators

The importance of eating habits and the number of fish sampled in the estimation of mercury environmental contamination through biological indicators was studied. The species used were one with piscivorous habits (Anguilla anguilla) and another with omnivorous habits (Ciprinus carpio). From one original sample for each species, randomized samples were generated using the subroutine GGSRS from the mathematics library IMSL, and later the statistical significance of Pearson's correlation coefficient for the relationship between fish weight and mercury concentrations in muscle was obtained for each random sample. The results show that the use of omnivorous species such as Ciprinus carpio as a biological indicator of contamination enables us to carry out estimations with a greater degree of confidence than when piscivorous species such as Anguilla anguilla are used.     

Mikrobielle Sanierung von 2,4,6-Trinitrotoluol (TNT) kontaminierten Böden

Within the limits of a feasability study abouton-site bioremediation methods for TNT-contaminated soils, composting was chosen as a very promising and cheap method. This method was critically compared with those described in the literature and was primarily rated under ecotoxicological aspects. The investigated location is the former munition plant «Tanne» in the aerea of Clausthal-Zellerfeld in Lower Saxony, Germany. To estimate the autochtonic microflora, we assessed the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria and determined their respiration activity in soils. In addition, we isolated bacteria and examined their capacity to metabolize TNTin vitro. Both the amount of autochtonic microrganisms (4.7×10⁸ to 1.2×10¹⁰ colony forming units (cfu)/kg dryweight) as well as their respiration activity did not correlate with the concentrations of nitrotoluenes in the soils. With high contaminated soil (20 g TNT/kg dry weight) we carried out a small compost in the range of 10 liters. During 28 days of composting TNT-concentration decrease over 90% and only minor amounts of monoaminodinitrotoluenes were generated. However, an acidic pretreatment of the compost material at the end of the reaction showed that TNT could be partially resolved under these extreme conditions and that an ecotoxicological risk may still exist. Possible changes in the realization of the composting process in order to make sure that the contaminants are savely bound to the humin matrix are discussed.     

Some observations of the structure of the choroid plexus and its cysts

The structure of the choroid plexus was studied in five normal human embryos, three normal fetuses and three fetuses with choroid plexus cysts. These were detected by ultrasound and the fetuses were karyotypically normal. The choroid plexus appears in the lateral cerebral ventricles at the seventh developmental week. The early structure is lobulated with vessels running in the mesenchymal stroma and forming capillary nets under the single-layered ependymal epithelium. This embryonal structure is converted into the fetal type during the ninth developmental week as the embryonal capillary net is replaced by elongated loops of wavy capillaries that lie under regular longitudinal epithelial folds. The choroid plexus cysts exhibited accumulation of fluid within distended mesenchymal stroma and did not show the wavy folds on this surface, which was smooth. Within this connective tissue of the cyst wall were distended angiomatous interconnecting thin-walled capillaries. Therefore, filled cavities were not lined by any epithelium. We suggest that fetal choroid plexuses cysts (at least in many cases) are in fact pseudocysts exhibiting angiomatous patterns of capillaries in their walls. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.