Integrated assessment of future CAP policies: land use changes,spatial patterns and targeting

The recent and upcoming reforms of the Common Agricultural Policies (CAPs) aim at strengthening the multifunctional role of agriculture, acknowledging the differences in economic, environmental and social potentials within European regions. This paper presents results from an integrated assessment of existing and future policies within the framework set up in the FP6 EU project MEA-Scope. Spatial explicit procedures allow for the MEA-Scope modelling tools to provide information related to regional, environmental and socio-economics settings. The impact of different policy scenarios on structural change, land abandonment and cropping pattern of typical farms has been assessed based on linked agent-based (ABM) and Linear Programming (LP) models at regional and farm scale for two study areas. For the German case study area Ostprignitz-Ruppin (OPR), the issue of policy targeting has been addressed by relating non-commodity outputs (NCOs) to soil quality and protection status. For the Italian case study area (Mugello), changes in landscape patterns in terms of increased fragmentation or homogeneity as affected by changes in agricultural intensity have been analysed using semivariance analysis. The spatial explicit approach highlighted the relevance of case study research in order to identifying response structures and explaining policy implementation patterns.     

The Fate of Priority Areas for Conservation in Protected Areas: A Fine-Scale Markov Chain Approach

Park managers in alpine areas must deal with the increase in forest coverage that has been observed in most European mountain areas, where traditional farming and agricultural practices have been abandoned. The aim of this study is to develop a fine-scale model of a broad area to support the managers of Paneveggio Nature Park (Italy) in conservation planning by focusing on the fate of priority areas for conservation in the next 50–100 years. GIS analyses were performed to assess the afforestation dynamic over time using two historical maps (from 1859 and 1936) and a series of aerial photographs and ortho-photos (taken from 1954 to 2006) covering a time span of 150 years. The results show an increase in the forest surface area of about 35%. Additionally, the forest became progressively more compact and less fragmented, with a consequent loss of ecotones and open habitats that are important for biodiversity. Markov chain-cellular automata models were used to project future changes, evaluating the effects on a habitat scale. Simulations show that some habitats defined as priority by the EU Habitat Directive will be compromised by the forest expansion by 2050 and suffer a consistent loss by 2100. This protocol, applied to other areas, can be used for designing long-term management measures with a focus on habitats where conservation status is at risk.     

Observations in captivity of the activity patterns and resources utilization of the spider crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Inachus phalangium</Emphasis> (Decapoda,Majidae)

The spider crab Inachus phalangium is common in the sublitoral fringe of the Mediterranean Sea and north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, where it can be found in association with the snakelocks sea anemone Anemonia viridis. Studies concerning its activity patterns and the role of the host sea anemone are lacking. Our study aimed at investigating activity rhythms and resources utilization of I. phalangium reared in captivity. The main behavioral traits exhibited by I. phalangium are performed mostly at night. Two experiments were designed, one examined the time budget of various behavioral acts and the degree of association with the sea anemone, the other analyzed the behavioral response to algae and anemones. We showed that algae have a crucial role in the biology of I. phalangium and that crabs are ready to leave the protection of their host to obtain them. Algae represent both the major component of the diet and one of the most utilized sources of masking material of I. phalangium, which provide, together with specialized cryptic behaviors, protection against predators. Although our data suggest that the association with A. viridis is not obligatory, but the role of the snakelocks sea anemone in the life of I. phalangium is still central, both as an anti-predatory defense and as a nutritional source. The association of I. phalangium with algae and the anemone is a facultative biotrophic commensalistic symbiosis.     

Biomass measurements and weight-to-weight conversion factors: a comparison of methods applied to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis

Wet weight to ash-free dry weight conversion factors were calculated for the bivalve Mytilus galloprovincialis Lamarck; specimens were collected in November 1989 in the Magra Estuary (eastern Ligurian Sea, Italy). Ash-free dry weight was determined by four different methods: (A) mechanical separation of shell and body; (B) shell dissolution with HCl; (C) dissolution of organic matter with NaClO; (D) incineration of the whole organism. The results obtained by these four methods were significantly different, indicating that caution is necessary when comparing biomass data obtained by different methods. Incineration and decalcification with HCl seem to be the best procedures: they not only combine accuracy with speed, but are also the most universally applicable, being equally suitable for soft-bodied or hard-bodied organisms. Mechanical separation can lead to an underestimation of the biomass, whereas treatment with NaClO can lead to its overestimation. However, no method can be considered the best in absolute terms, the final choice depending on the particular weight measurement required (e.g. shell-free dry weight) and the nature of the organism concerned (e.g. an organism with a large carbonate content).     

Neural network modelling for the analysis of forcings/temperatures relationships at different scales in the climate system

A fully non-linear analysis of forcing influences on temperatures is performed in the climate system by means of neural network modelling. Two case studies are investigated, in order to establish the main factors that drove the temperature behaviour at both global and regional scales in the last 140 years. In particular, our neural network model shows the ability to catch non-linear relationships among these variables and to reconstruct temperature records with a high degree of accuracy. In this framework, we clearly show the need of including anthropogenic inputs for explaining the temperature behaviour at global scale and recognise the role of El Niño southern oscillation for catching the inter-annual variability of temperature data. Furthermore, we analyse the relative influence of global forcing and a regional circulation pattern in determining the winter temperatures in Central England, showing that the North Atlantic oscillation represents the driven element in this case study. Our modelling activity and results can be very useful for simple assessments of relationships in the complex climate system and for identifying the fundamental elements leading to a successful downscaling of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.     

Demonstration of spontaneously dividing male fetal cells in maternal blood by negative magnetic cell sorting and fish

We investigated a case of massive feto-maternal bleeding by using negative magnetic cell sorting (MACS) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). A 37-year-old pregnant woman had an uncomplicated amniocentesis for advanced maternal age at 16 weeks' gestation. The fetal karyotype was 46, XY. At 19 weeks' gestation, she had a minor car accident and slight vaginal bleeding. A subsequent Kleihauer-Betke test showed a 140 ml feto-maternal haemorrhage. Serial sonographic examinations indicated a normal fetus and placenta. We performed FISH analysis on maternal peripheral blood at 25 weeks. Anti-CD45 and MACS were used to deplete maternal leucocytes, enriching the proportion of fetal nucleated erythrocytes present. The isolated cells were analysed by using dual-colour FISH with X and Y specific probes. Approximately 65 800 nucleated cells were obtained after MACS depletion. A total of 234 cells were analysed by FISH. The results revealed that 70 of the nucleated cells (30 per cent) were male with one X and one Y signal. Among these cells, six male metaphases were observed in spontaneously dividing cells.