Does the risk of encountering lions influence African herbivore behaviour at waterholes?

A central question in the study of predator–prey relationships is to what extent prey behaviour is determined by avoidance of predators. Here, we test whether the long-term risk of encountering lions and the presence of lions in the vicinity influence the behaviour of large African herbivores at waterholes through avoidance of high-risk areas, increases in group size, changes in temporal niche or changes in the time spent in waterhole areas. In Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, we monitored waterholes to study the behaviour of nine herbivore species under different risks of encountering lions. We radio-collared 26 lions in the study area which provided the opportunity to monitor whether lions were present during observation sessions and to map longer-term seasonal landscapes of risk of encountering lions. Our results show that the preferred prey species for lions (buffalo, kudu and giraffe) avoided risky waterholes. Group size increased as encounter risk increased for only two species (wildebeest and zebra), but this effect was not strong. Interestingly, buffalo avoided the hours of the day which are dangerous when the long-term and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and all species showed avoidance of waterhole use at night times when lions were in the vicinity. This illustrates well how prey can make temporal adjustments to avoid dangerous periods coinciding with predator hunting. Additionally, many herbivores spent more time accessing water to drink when the long- and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and they showed longer potential drinking time when the long-term risk of encountering lions was high, suggesting higher levels of vigilance. This study illustrates the diversity of behavioural adjustments to the risk of encountering a predator and how prey respond differently to temporal variations in this risk.     

Trans-Sahara migrants select flight altitudes to minimize energy costs rather than water loss

Meteorological conditions influence strongly the energy and water budget of birds. By adjusting their flights spatially and temporally with respect to these conditions, birds can reduce their energy expenditure and water loss considerably. By radar, we quantified songbird migration across the western Sahara in spring and autumn. There autumn migrants face the trade-off between (a) favorable winds combined with hot and dry air at low altitudes and (b) unfavorable winds combined with humid and cold air higher up. Thus, it can be tested whether birds may chose altitudes to minimize water loss instead of energy expenditure. We predicted optimal flight altitudes with respect to water loss and energy expenditure based on a physiological flight model when crossing the western Sahara and compared these model predictions spatially and temporally with measured songbird densities. The model aiming for minimal water consumption predicted a mean flight altitude of 3,400 m under autumn conditions. However, 64% of the nocturnal songbird migration flew at altitudes below 1,000 m above ground level profiting from tailwind. This preference for tailwind in autumn, despite the hot and dry air, emphasizes the importance of energy savings and diminishes the significance of possible water stress for the selection of flight altitude. Nevertheless, during daytime, high energy expenditure due to air turbulences and water loss due to warmer air and direct solar radiation prevent songbirds from prolonging their nocturnal flights regularly into the day. Birds crossing the Sahara save water by nocturnal flights and diurnal rests.     

Challenges of simulating complex environmental systems at the landscape scale: A controversial dialogue between two cups of espresso

With the advancement of computational systems and the development of model integration concepts, complexity of environmental model systems increased. In contrast to that, theory and knowledge about > environmental systems as well as the capability for environmental systems analyses remained, to a large extent, unchanged. As a consequence, model conceptualization, data gathering, and validation, have faced new challenges that hardly can be tackled by modellers alone. In this discourse-like review, we argue that modelling with reliable simulations of human-environmental interactions necessitate linking modelling and simulation research much stronger to science fields such as landscape ecology, community ecology, eco-hydrology, etc. It thus becomes more and more important to identify the adequate degree of complexity in environmental models (which is not only a technical or methodological question), to ensure data availability, and to test model performance. Even equally important, providing problem specific answers to environmental problems using simulation tools requires addressing end-user and stakeholder requirements during early stages of problem development. In doing so, we avoid modelling and simulation as an end of its own.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

The effect of low molecular weight chelators on iron chelation and free radical generation as studied by ESR measurement

The purpose of this work was to improve our current knowledge of the non-enzymatic mechanisms involved in brown rot fungal decay of wood, but also to improve our understanding of chelator-mediated reactions that may occur in other biological systems where low pH conditions may prevail. Several key steps (iron chelation and reduction) during early non-enzymatic wood decay processes have been studied by using electron spin resonance (ESR). It has been proposed that low molecular weight chelators as well as Fenton reagents are involved in brown rot decay, at least in early non-enzymatic stages. In this work, the binding between a catecholate model chelator and ferric iron was studied by ESR spectroscopy. The effects of the model chelator, Fenton reagents, as well as the reaction conditions on free radical generation were also studied using ESR spin-trapping techniques. The results indicate: (1) The relative quantity of the chelator-iron complex can be determined by measurement of the intensities of the characteristic g = 4.3 ESR signal. (2) The effects of the chelator:iron ratio, the pH, and other reaction parameters on the hydroxyl radical generation in a Fenton type system can be determined using ESR spin-trapping techniques. (3) Data support the hypothesis that superoxide radicals are involved in chelator-mediated Fenton processes.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

The evolution of cheating and selfish behavior

Summary We examine the necessary conditions for the spread of genes that determine selfish and cheating behaviors and the rate of spread of these genes through structured populations, in order to address the question of the invadability of altruistic systems by anti-social mutations. We find that, although cheaters always have a higher relative fitness than altruists within groups, population structures which permit the evolution of altruism also preclude invasion by anti-social mutations. These results are related to a discussion by Hamilton (1971) concerning the limits to the evolution of altruistic and selfish behaviors.