Absence of trends in relative risk estimates for the association between Black Smoke and daily mortality over a 34 years period in The Netherlands

A major issue in air pollution epidemiology is whether the associations that are found in the statistical analyses on the health effects of air pollution reflect real causal associations of single components or mixtures thereof, or just reflect statistical associations that are mainly the result of the high correlation between the separate components, one of them being the true causal factor.In a previous analysis on the relationship between daily SO₂ levels and daily mortality in The Netherlands [Buringh, E., Fischer, P., Hoek, G., 2000. Is SO₂ a causative factor for the PM-associated mortality risks in The Netherlands? Inhal. Toxicol. 12 (Suppl. 1), 55–60.], it was shown that the statistical significant association between daily variation in SO₂ and daily mortality did not reflect a causal relation. Black Smoke levels in The Netherlands have decreased 4-fold during the 34 years in the period 1972–2006 (annual average from 27 μg m^?3 to 6 μg m^?3). This large decrease in concentrations enabled us to use the same approach for this component as was done earlier for SO₂ to assess whether a decreasing trend in Black Smoke levels in The Netherlands is associated with an increasing trend in mortality relative risks or not.We used daily averaged Black Smoke (BS) data from 1972 to 2006. In the first two decades (1970–1990) only sparse data were available. Based on the availability of the data, we selected data from 1972 to 1974 and from 1982 to 1984 because during these two periods continuous daily measurement series were available. For the later years (1989–2006) data covering the whole of The Netherlands were available, giving a total of 24 years of daily data. Data on daily total mortality counts (excluding external causes), cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality for the whole population of The Netherlands were analyzed with regard to daily Black Smoke levels using generalized additive Poisson regression models (GAM). Period specific relative risk estimates were compared and differences in estimates between periods were evaluated.We found no consistent increase in relative risks for daily total and cause-specific mortality over time, despite the decreasing trend in the Black Smoke levels in The Netherlands. Average relative risks for total mortality varied over the different periods from 0.997 per 10 μg m^?3 daily Black Smoke to 1.010 per 10 μg m^?3. Average relative risks for cardiovascular mortality varied from 0.988 per 10 μg m^?3 to 1.010 per 10 μg m^?3 and for respiratory mortality from 1.000 to 1.010 per 10 μg m^?3. For weekly averaged concentrations the average relative risks for total mortality varied over the different periods from 1.004 per 10 μg m^?3 Black Smoke to 1.018 per 10 μg m^?3. Average relative risks for cardiovascular mortality varied from 1.003 per 10 μg m^?3 to 1.016 per 10 μg m^?3 and for respiratory mortality from 1.000 to 1.050 per 10 μg m^?3.The result of our analyses suggests that Black Smoke cannot be excluded as a potential causal agent because relative risks over time show no increasing trend despite the decreasing trend in Black Smoke concentrations.     

Perceptions of using low-quality irrigation water in vegetable production in Morogoro,Tanzania

This study was conducted to examine perceptions of the farmers and key informants on the use of low-quality irrigation water for vegetable production in urban and peri-urban areas in Morogoro, Tanzania. The methods used to collect data were farmer surveys (n = 60), focus group discussions (n = 4) and key informants interviews (n = 15). The results showed that the respondents had a positive perception on using low-quality irrigation water for vegetable production. The reported benefits include availability of water throughout the year, highest soil and crop nutrients in irrigation water, less costs of buying commercial fertilizers, vegetable production all year round, sustainable income generation from selling vegetables and also jobs creation in the community among farmers and vegetable sellers. Findings from Mann–Whitney U test and Kruskal–Wallis test score on farmers perception scales indicate an association between the source of low-quality water used and the respondents’ sex. Accordingly, female farmers had higher positive perception on the benefits of low-quality water compared to male farmers. Higher perception score was also observed among farmers who used polluted river water in irrigation vegetable production compared to farmers who used wastewater. Since low-quality irrigation water is a good strategy of coping with scarcity of freshwater for communities which have no alternative source of irrigation water, the study recommends multi-sectorial agencies across the country to be involved in formulating policies and creating health promotion awareness for safe use of low-quality water for benefit maximization and health risk reduction.     

Critical factors for the recovery of marine mammals

{en} Over the past decades, much research has focused on understanding the critical factors for marine extinctions with the aim of preventing further species losses in the oceans. Although conservation and management strategies are enabling several species and populations to recover, others remain at low abundance levels or continue to decline. To understand these discrepancies, we used a published database on abundance trends of 137 populations of marine mammals worldwide and compiled data on 28 potentially critical factors for recovery. We then applied random forests and additive mixed models to determine which intrinsic and extrinsic factors are critical for the recovery of marine mammals. A mix of life‐history characteristics, ecological traits, phylogenetic relatedness, population size, geographic range, human impacts, and management efforts explained why populations recovered or not. Consistently, species with lower age at maturity and intermediate habitat area were more likely to recover, which is consistent with life‐history and ecological theory. Body size, trophic level, social interactions, dominant habitat, ocean basin, and habitat disturbance also explained some differences in recovery patterns. Overall, a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors were important for species’ recovery, pointing to cumulative effects. Our results provide insight for improving conservation and management strategies to enhance recoveries in the future.     

Temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton monitored by a combination of monitoring buoys,pigment analysis and fast screening microscopy in the Fehmarn Belt Estuary

For 2 years, a baseline investigation was carried out to collect reference information of the present environmental status in the Fehmarn Belt and adjacent area. The temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton was monitored by a combination of monitoring buoys, pigment analysis and fast screening microscopy. The overall phytoplankton succession in the Fehmarn Belt area was found to be influenced primarily by the seasonal changes, where various diatoms dominated the spring and autumn blooms and flagellates like Chrysochromulina sp., Dictyocha speculum and various dinoflagellates were occasionally abundant in late spring and summer. The phytoplankton groups were remarkably uniform horizontally in the investigation area while large differences in both biomasses and composition of individual phytoplankton groups were seen vertically in the water column, especially in the summer periods, in which the two-layer exchange flow between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is showing a particularly strong stratification in the Fehmarn Belt. The chlorophyll a concentrations ranged continuously from 1 to 3 μg/L at the three permanent buoy stations during the 2 years of monitoring, except for the spring and autumn blooms where chlorophyll a increased up to 18 μg/L in the spring of 2010 and up to 8 μg/L in the autumn of 2009. Recurrent blooms of filamentous cyanobacteria are common during the summer period in the Baltic Sea and adjacent areas, but excessive blooms of cyanobacteria did not occur in 2009 and 2010 in the Fehmarn Belt area. The combination of the HPLC pigment analysis method and monitoring buoys continuously measuring fluorescence at selected stations with fast screening of samples in the microscope proved advantageous for obtaining information on both the phytoplankton succession and dynamic and, at the same time, getting information on duration and intensity of the blooms as well as specific information on the dominant species present both temporally and spatially in the large Fehmarn Belt area.     

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.     

Trends in the exploitation of South Atlantic shark populations

Approximately 25% of globally reported shark catches occur in Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries. Strong declines in shark populations have been detected in the North Atlantic, whereas in the South Atlantic the situation is less clear, although fishing effort has been increasing in this region since the late 1970s. We synthesized information on shark catch rates (based on 871,177 sharks caught on 86,492 longline sets) for the major species caught by multiple fleets in the South Atlantic between 1979 and 2011. We complied records from fishing logbooks of fishing companies, fishers, and onboard observers that were supplied to Brazilian institutions. By using exploratory data analysis and literature sources, we identified 3 phases of exploitation in these data (Supporting Information). From 1979 to 1997 (phase A), 5 fleets (40 vessels) fished mainly for tunas. From 1998 to 2008 (phase B), 20 fleets (100 vessels) fished for tunas, swordfishes, and sharks. From 2008 to 2011 (phase C), 3 fleets (30 vessels) fished for multiple species, but restrictive measures were implemented. We used generalized linear models to standardize catch rates and identify trends in each of these phases. Shark catch rates increased from 1979 to 1997, when fishing effort was low, decreased from 1998 to 2008, when fishing effort increased substantially, and remained stable or increased from 2008 to 2011, when fishing effort was again low. Our results indicate that most shark populations affected by longlines in the South Atlantic are currently depleted, but these populations may recover if fishing effort is reduced accordingly. In this context, it is problematic that comprehensive data collection, monitoring, and management of these fisheries ceased after 2012. Concurrently with the fact that Brazil is newly identified by FAO among the largest (and in fastest expansion) shark sub‐products consumer market worldwide.