Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

The effects of light and thallus scour from<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Ecklonia radiata</Emphasis> canopy on an associated foliose algal assemblage: the importance of photoacclimation

Kelp canopies have long been recognised for their influence on the structure of algal assemblages on sublittoral reefs. In Marmion Lagoon, Western Australia, we investigated how a canopy of the small kelp Ecklonia radiata affected the associated foliose algal assemblage and what potential mechanisms were responsible for the effects we observed. Light levels and physical abrasion (thallus scour) by an E. radiata canopy were manipulated in an orthogonal fixed-factor experiment that revealed that changes in light, but not thallus scour, had a significant effect on the composition of the algal assemblage. Reduced light levels were associated with a decrease in the Shannon-Wiener diversity index and an increased dominance of the foliose algae Pterocladia lucida and Rhodymenia sonderi. Photobiological investigations of three foliose species, P. lucida, R. sonderi and Chauviniella coriifolia indicated that they were able to photoacclimate to low light levels by increasing thallus absorption by up to 11%. Photoacclimation was also evident by an increase in the maximum rate of electron transport under low-light conditions. We conclude that the E. radiata canopy in Marmion Lagoon structures the foliose algal assemblage through the modification of the light environment and that this effect may be mediated by differences in the ability of different species of foliose algae to photoacclimate.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Sperm competition in horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus)

Male horseshoe crabs have two mating tactics. Some males come ashore attached to a female (clasping the posterior margin of the females' carapace with their modified pedipalps) and nest with her on the intertidal portion of the beach during the high tide. Other males come ashore unattached and crowd around nesting couples. Fertilization is external and unattached males that are in contact with a pair, i.e. satellite males, release sperm, so the assumption has been that they are fertilizing eggs. We conducted a paternity analysis to determine the proportion of eggs fertilized by attached and satellite males. Pairs with one satellite were observed during nesting on beaches in Florida and Delaware and their eggs were collected and reared to the late trilobite or first instar horseshoe crab stage. DNA was extracted from these offspring and from each adult (female, attached and satellite male) for use in paternity analysis. A Limulus-specific hypervariable microsatellite locus was identified and primers were constructed to amplify this locus via the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Genotypes of putative parents and offspring were determined by resolving length variants of these PCR products on acrylamide gels. This allowed us to determine parentage of the offspring. We demonstrate that satellite males fertilized 40% of the eggs on average, attached males fertilized 51% and 4% of the eggs that were laid by the female were fathered neither by the attached male nor by the satellite (and 5% could not be determined unambiguously). There is high variability in the success of satellite males, ranging from 0 to 88%. Part of this variability can be explained by the position of the satellite relative to the attached male. We discuss the mechanics of fertilization and the possible advantages for multiple mating in this species.     

Prenatal detection of monosomy 21 mosaicism

We report a case of chromosomal mosaicism for monosomy 21 revealed in amniotic fluid cell culture. Ultrasound examination at 19 weeks' gestation showed in utero growth retardation and a complex cardiac malformation. A repeated amniocentesis confirmed the presence of monosomy 21 mosaicism. In view of the sonographically detected fetal abnormalities, termination of pregnancy was elected.     

User experience and operational feasibility of four point-of-collection oral fluid drug-testing devices according to Brazilian traffic agents

Objective: Traffic fatalities in Brazil still rank among the highest worldwide, with an overall rate of 23.4 deaths/100,000 inhabitants/year. Although alcohol and drug use play an important role in traffic accidents, national data about their relative influence are scarce. Drug screening is not routinely performed by traffic agents because alcohol is the only substance regularly investigated in roadblocks. Therefore, we aimed to describe the initial traffic agent user experience for 4 handheld point-of-collection oral fluid drug testing devices used in routine roadblocks in Brazil, focusing on usage perceptions in hopes of generalizing this approach for other developing countries.

Methods: Four different oral fluid collection devices were evaluated: The DDS2, the DOA MultiScreen, the Dräger DrugTest 5000, and the Multi-Drug Multi-Line Twist Screen Device. Fourteen trained traffic agents obtained oral fluid from 164 drivers and performed 37 qualitative evaluations of the devices. Traffic agents filled out a questionnaire focusing on 9 feasibility criteria: Overall simplicity for roadside operation; operational success; saliva sample collection time; sample analysis time; ease of sample preparation and analysis; agreement with observed clinical signs; overall hygiene and safety; sufficient operating instructions; and hygiene of saliva collection. These were weighted based on an expert panel and yielded an overall composite device experience score that ranged from 1 (poor) to 100 (excellent).

Results: Ease of use, operational success, and acceptable collection and analysis time were considered the most important criteria by the expert panel. The results ranged from 27.3 to 88.9% for simplicity of use; 45.5 to 100.0% for operational success; 27.3 to 100% for acceptable collection time; and 36.4 to 100.0% for acceptable analysis time. The final device scores, based on the agents’ user experiences, ranked as follows: DOA MultiScreen: 49.3/100; Dräger DrugTest 5000: 82.4/100; Multi-Drug Multi-Line Twist Screen Device: 84.3/100; DDS2: 88.4/100.

Conclusion: Based on the selected criteria, 3 of the 4 devices were considered useful by traffic agents in routine roadblock operations. The weighted evaluations suggest that their ease of use (handling, sampling analysis, and reliability), as well as their agreement with findings obtained by other means, defined their utility to traffic agents, although such appraisals must be further analyzed in future studies.     

Transfer of natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to ants, bryophytes and lichen in a semi-natural ecosystem

Few data are available to quantify the transfer of both natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to detritivorous invertebrates to facilitate estimation of the internal dose to such biota in models used to assess radiation exposure. To enhance the available data, activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ⁹⁰Sr, ^239?+?240Pu, ²⁴¹Am, ²³⁵U and ²³⁸U were measured in ants (Formicidae) and corresponding undisturbed soil collected from the Zlatibor mountain in Serbia and ant/soil concentration ratios (CR) calculated. The ²⁴¹Am concentration ratios for ants were fourfold higher than those calculated for ants in a previous study whereas they are similar to the more numerous data previously reported for a range of detritivorous invertebrates in other studies. CR values for ¹³⁷Cs in ants were similar to the few other reported values and slightly lower than those for a range of detritivorous invertebrates. Those for ^239?+?240Pu were slightly higher than those for ants in two other studies but they were close to upper limit of a range of data reported for detritivorous invertebrates. All the CR values will be included in a future revision of the ERICA Tool database and will particularly improve the information available for uranium.     

Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.     

First-trimester screening: dealing with the fall-out

The articles collected together in this issue describe first-trimester screening for a variety of complications. With the advance of both technology and research, early pregnancy screening is becoming ever more sophisticated and complex. While there are clear benefits to most women receiving early reassurance that their baby is developing as expected, there is no evidence to suggest that an earlier prenatal diagnosis has less long-term emotional impact than at later gestations. The poignancy of ultrasound images for many parents means that it can be especially difficult to manage the anxiety when an ultrasound marker is highlighted as potential cause for concern. They can then face a journey of anxiety-laden uncertainty, which can extend through much of the pregnancy, and even beyond. Professionals involved in screening need to recognise and acknowledge such adverse side-effects and develop the skills necessary to help parents understand and cope with the uncertainties inherent in the process. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.