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101.
Dina A. Salman Saud A. Amer Frank A. Ward 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2014,50(5):1208-1225
Climate variability and population growth have intensified the search internationally for measures to adapt to fluctuations in water supplies. An example can be found in the lower part of the transboundary Tigris‐Euphrates Basin where water shortages in 2008‐2009 resulted in high economic costs to irrigation farmers. Losses to irrigators in the lower basin have made a compelling case to identify flexible methods to adapt to water shortage. Few published studies have systematically examined ways to enhance the flexibility of water appropriation systems to adapt to water shortage. This article addresses an ongoing challenge in water governance by examining how profitability at both the farm and basin levels is affected by various water appropriation systems. Four water appropriation systems are compared for impacts on farm income under each of three water supply scenarios. Results show that a (1) proportional sharing of water shortages among provinces and (2) unrestricted water trading rank as the top two appropriation systems. The shadow price of water for irrigation rises from zero at a full water supply level to US$93/1,000 m3 when supply falls to 20% of full levels. Similar methods could be used to analyze challenges facing the design or implementation of water appropriation systems in the world's irrigated regions. 相似文献
102.
Narayan Yoganandan Hans Hauschild John Humm Yuvaraj Purushothaman Frank A. Pintar 《Traffic injury prevention》2019,20(4):S32-S37
AbstractObjective: The focus of this study is side impact. Though occupant injury assessment and protection in nearside impacts has received considerable attention and safety standards have been promulgated, field studies show that a majority of far-side occupant injuries are focused on the head and thorax. The 50th percentile male Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) has been used in oblique and lateral far-side impact sled tests, and regional body accelerations and forces and moments recorded by load cells have been previously reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate the chestband-based deflection responses from these tests.Methods: The 3-point belt–restrained 50th percentile male THOR dummy was seated upright in a buck consisting of a rigid flat seat, simulated center console, dashboard, far-side side door structure, and armrest. It was designed to conduct pure lateral and oblique impacts. The center console, dashboard, simulated door structure, and armrest were covered with energy-absorbing materials. A center-mounted airbag was mounted to the right side of the seat. Two 59-gage chestbands were routed on the circumference of the thorax, with the upper and lower chestbands at the level of the third and sixth ribs, respectively, following the rib geometry. Oblique and pure lateral far-side impact tests with and without airbags were conducted at 8.3 m/s. Maximum chest deflections were computed by processing temporal contours using custom software and 3 methods: Procedures paralleling human cadaver studies, using the actual anchor point location and actual alignment of the InfraRed Telescoping Rods for the Assessment of Chest Compression (IR-TRACC) in the dummy on each aspect—that is, right or left,—and using the same anchor location of the internal sensor but determining the location of the peak chest deflection on the contour confined to the aspect of the sensor; these were termed the SD, ID, and TD metrics, respectively.Results: All deformation contours at the upper and lower thorax levels and associated peak deflections are given for all tests. Briefly, the ID metrics were the lowest in magnitude for both pure lateral and oblique modes, regardless of the presence or absence of an airbag. This was followed by the TD metric, and the SD metric produced the greatest deflections.Conclusion: The chestbands provide a unique opportunity to compute peak deflections that parallel current IR-TRACC-type deflections and allow computation of peak deflections independent of the initial point of attachment to the rib. The differing locations of the peak deflection vectors along the rib contours for different test conditions suggest that a priori attachment is less effective. Further, varying magnitudes of the differences between ID and TD metrics underscore the difficulty in extrapolating ID outputs under different conditions: Pure lateral versus oblique, airbag presence, and thoracic levels. Deflection measurements should, therefore, not be limited to an instrument that can only track from a fixed point. For improved predictions, these results suggest the need to investigate alternative techniques, such as optical methods to improve chest deflection measurements for far-side occupant injury assessment and mitigation. 相似文献
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104.
Learning from local knowledge: modeling the pastoral-nomadic range management of the Himba, Namibia.
Birgit Müller Anja Linst?dter Karin Frank Michael Bollig Christian Wissel 《Ecological applications》2007,17(7):1857-1875
It is widely accepted that successful grazing management strategies in semiarid ecosystems need to be adapted to the highly temporal and spatially heterogeneous forage production. Nevertheless, a full understanding of the key factors and processes for sustainable adaptive management has yet to be reached. The investigation of existing, successful range management systems by simulation models may help to derive general understanding and basic principles. The semi-nomadic Himba in northern Namibia applied a sophisticated management system until the mid-1990s which combined season-dependent pasture use (resulting in rainy-season pastures and dry-season pastures), preservation of reserves for drought and sanctions for rule breaking. A stochastic ecological simulation model has been developed here which represents the main aspects of this management system. With this model we analyze (1) which components of the traditional Himba strategy are essential for sustainability and (2) what happens to the state of the rangeland system under socioeconomic changes. This study shows that temporally and spatially heterogeneous pasture use yields higher productivity and quality of a pasture area than the pressure of homogeneous permanent grazing. Two aspects are of importance: (1) intra-annual heterogeneous use (resting of the dry-season pastures during the rainy season) and (2) interannual heterogeneous use (spatial extension of grazing in years of drought). This management system leads to an effective build-up and use of a buffer in the system: the reserve biomass (the non-photosynthetic reserve organs of the plants), an indicator for grazing and management history. Analyzing purchase as one form of socioeconomic change, we demonstrate that easier market access to purchase livestock may lead to a decline in vegetation quality. However, cattle production increases as long as rest periods on parts of the pasture during the rainy season are granted. Methodologically, we emphasize that simulation models offer an excellent framework for analyzing and depicting basic principles in sustainable range management derived from local knowledge. They provide the opportunity of testing whether these basic principles are also valid under different ecological and socioeconomic settings. 相似文献
105.
Frank J. Joyce 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1993,32(2):71-77
Summary Rufous-naped wrens (Campylorhynchus rufinucha) in northwestern Costa Rica build breeding nests most frequently in ant-acacia trees (Acacia collinsii) and occasionally near wasp nests in ant-acacia trees. By moving occupied wasp nests (Polybia rejecta) to randomly chosen ant-acacia trees with wren nests, I tested the hypothesis that wrens nesting near wasp nests were more likely to fledge young than wrens not nesting near wasp nests. Wrens whose nests were near experimentally relocated wasp nests were significantly more likely to fledge young (37.5% of 16 attempts in 1987 and 75% of 12 attempts in 1988) than were wrens whose nests had no wasp nests placed near them (0% of 16 attempts in 1987 and 20% of 15 attempts in 1988). In 15 cases, repeated nesting attempts occurred in the same trees both with and without experimentally-placed wasp nests. Analysis of these data allowed a comparison of the effect of wasp nests on fledging success while differences among trees were controlled. Within the same tree, nesting attempts associated with wasp nests were significantly more likely to fledge young than nesting attempts without wasp nests. Predation was the primary cause of nest failure, and within forest, white-faced monkeys (Cebus capucinus) were the most important predators. The difference in success of wren nests with and without wasps and observations of predators indicate that enhancement of fledging success was due to deterrence of predatory vertebrates by wasps. 相似文献
106.
107.
108.
109.
Frank C. Curriero Michael E. Hohn Andrew M. Liebhold Subhash R. Lele 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2002,9(1):89-110
Geostatistics is a set of statistical techniques that is increasingly used to characterize spatial dependence in spatially referenced ecological data. A common feature of geostatistics is predicting values at unsampled locations from nearby samples using the kriging algorithm. Modeling spatial dependence in sampled data is necessary before kriging and is usually accomplished with the variogram and its traditional estimator. Other types of estimators, known as non-ergodic estimators, have been used in ecological applications. Non-ergodic estimators were originally suggested as a method of choice when sampled data are preferentially located and exhibit a skewed frequency distribution. Preferentially located samples can occur, for example, when areas with high values are sampled more intensely than other areas. In earlier studies the visual appearance of variograms from traditional and non-ergodic estimators were compared. Here we evaluate the estimators' relative performance in prediction. We also show algebraically that a non-ergodic version of the variogram is equivalent to the traditional variogram estimator. Simulations, designed to investigate the effects of data skewness and preferential sampling on variogram estimation and kriging, showed the traditional variogram estimator outperforms the non-ergodic estimators under these conditions. We also analyzed data on carabid beetle abundance, which exhibited large-scale spatial variability (trend) and a skewed frequency distribution. Detrending data followed by robust estimation of the residual variogram is demonstrated to be a successful alternative to the non-ergodic approach. 相似文献
110.
Frank Götmark 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1997,40(1):41-49
Conspicuous color patterns in birds may lead to increased risk of predation. Alternatively, bright birds may be aposematic
or unprofitable prey, which leads to decreased predation. During four autumns, I examined whether the black-and-white plumage
of (stuffed) magpies Pica pica increases or reduces the risk of attack by migrating goshawks Accipiter gentilis. Attack risk was higher for normal magpies than for cryptic, brown magpies whether the mounts were placed near one another
or far apart. However, the brown magpie may have been avoided because of its novelty. For magpies and cryptic jays Garrulus glandarius exposed together, the attack risk was similar. In 2 years, magpie and jay mounts were also exposed far apart. In 1994, with
an invasion of migrating jays, attack risk was much higher for jays than for magpies. In 1995, with a normal density of jays,
hawks attacked the magpies more often. The results demonstrate frequency-dependent prey selection by goshawks, which would
influence any predation cost of bright plumage. The attacks on normally colored magpie mounts suggest that magpies are not
aposematic. Trials with photographs and human observers indicated that normal magpies were somewhat easier to detect than
jays. The plumage of the magpie possibly increases the risk of predation, but may be favoured by sexual or social selection.
Received: 18 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996 相似文献