Trends of perfluorochemicals in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears: Indications of shifts to decreasing trends

Time-series of perfluorinated alkylated substances (PFASs) in East Greenland polar bears and East and West Greenland ringed seals were updated in order to deduce whether a response to the major reduction in perfluoroalkyl production in the early 2000s had occurred. Previous studies had documented an exponential increase of perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS) in liver tissue from both species. In the present study, PFOS was still the far most dominant compound constituting 92% (West Greenland ringed seals), 88% (East Greenland ringed seals) and 85% (East Greenland polar bears). The PFOS concentrations increased up to 2006 with doubling times of approximately 6 years for the ringed seal populations and 14 years in case of polar bears. Since then a rapid decrease has occurred with clearing half-lives of approximately 1, 2 and 4 years, respectively. In polar bears perfluorohexane sulphonate (PFHxS) and perfluorooctane sulphonamide (PFOSA) also showed decreasing trends in recent years as do perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). For the West Greenland ringed seal population perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), PFDA and PFUnA peaked in the mid 2000s, whereas PFNA, PFDA and PFUnA in the East Greenland population have been stable or increasing in recent years. The peak of PFASs in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears occurred at a later time than in Canadian seals and polar bears and considerably later than observed in seal species from more southern latitudes. We suggest that this could be explained by the distance to emission hot-spots and differences in long-range transport to the Arctic.     

Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

The effects of triclopyr on 2,4‐D mineralization in two soils

Abstract

The effects of the herbicide triclopyr (3,5,6‐trichloro‐2‐pyridinyloxyacetic acid) on the mineralization of 2,4‐D (2,4‐dichlorophenoyxacetic acid) in two soils which differed in their histories of prior exposure to the two herbicides were investigated. The relative effects of triclopyr on 2,4‐D mineralization and most probable numbers of 2,4‐D degraders were dependent upon the soil. Triclopyr was shown to increase 2,4‐D mineralization rates in a soil which had been exposed to both 2,4‐D and triclopyr, but decreased the mineralization rate of 2,4‐D and inhibited the increase of most probable numbers of 2,4‐D degraders in a soil that had not been directly exposed to either herbicide.     

Geographic Profiling to Assess the Risk of Rare Plant Poaching in Natural Areas

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.     

Overview of Contemporary Issues of Forest Research and Management in China

With 207 million ha of forest covering 22% of its land area, China ranks fifth in the world in forest area. Rapid economic growth, climate change, and forest disturbances pose new, complex challenges for forest research and management. Progress in meeting these challenges is relevant beyond China, because China’s forests represent 34% of Asia’s forests and 5% of the worlds’ forests. To provide a broader understanding of these management challenges and of research and policies that address them, we organized this special issue on contemporary forest research and management issues in China. At the national level, papers review major forest types and the evolution of sustainable forestry, the development of China’s forest-certification efforts, the establishment of a forest inventory system, and achievements and challenges in insect pest control in China. Papers focused on Northern China address historical, social, and political factors that have shaped the region’s forests; the use of forest landscape models to assess how forest management can achieve multiple objectives; and analysis and modeling of fuels and fire behavior. Papers addressing Central and South China describe the “Grain for Green” program, which converts low productivity cropland to grassland and woodland to address erosion and soil carbon sequestration; the potential effects of climate change on CO₂ efflux and soil respiration; and relationships between climate and net primary productivity. China shares many forest management and research issues with other countries, but in other cases China’s capacity to respond to forest management challenges is unique and bears watching by the rest of the world.     

An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine spatial resolutions and great vegetation detail. We introduce LANDIS PRO 6.0, a landscape model that simulates forest succession and disturbances on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. LANDIS PRO 6.0 improves on existing forest landscape models with two new data structures and algorithms (hash table and run-length compression). The innovative computer design enables LANDIS PRO 6.0 to simulate very large (>10⁸ ha) landscapes with a 30-m spatial resolution, which to our knowledge no other raster forest landscape models can do. We demonstrate model behavior and performance through application to five nested forest landscapes with varying sizes (from 1 million to 100 million 0.09-ha cells) in the southern Missouri Ozarks. The simulation results showed significant and variable effects of changing spatial extent on simulated forest succession patterns. Results highlighted the utility of a model like LANDIS PRO 6.0 that is capable of efficiently simulating large landscapes and scaling up forest landscape processes to a common regional scale of analysis. The programming methodology presented here may significantly advance the development of next generation of forest landscape models.     

Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function

A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model.     

Antenatal diagnosis of a de novo paracentric inversion of chromosome 11

A de novo paracentric inversion of chromosome 11 identified through antenatal diagnosis is described along with long-term follow-up information on the child and discussion of reported experiences with de novo inversions.     

A Rapid Method for Assessing the Environmental Performance of Commercial Farms in the Pampas of Argentina

The generation of reliable updated information is critical to support the harmonization of socio-economic and environmental issues in a context of sustainable development. The agro-environmental assessment and management of agricultural systems often relies on indicators that are necessary to make sound decisions. This work aims to provide an approach to (a) assess the environmental performance of commercial farms in the Pampas of Argentina, and (b) propose a methodological framework to calculate environmental indicators that can rapidly be applied to practical farming. 120 commercial farms scattered across the Pampas were analyzed in this study during 2002 and 2003. Eleven basic indicators were identified and calculation methods described. Such indicators were fossil energy (FE) use, FE use efficiency, nitrogen (N) balance, phosphorus (P) balance, N contamination risk, P contamination risk, pesticide contamination risk, soil erosion risk, habitat intervention, changes in soil carbon stock, and balance of greenhouse gases. A model named Agro-Eco-Index was developed on a Microsoft-Excel support to incorporate on-farm collected data and facilitate the calculation of indicators by users. Different procedures were applied to validate the model and present the results to the users. Regression models (based on linear and non-linear models) were used to validate the comparative performance of the study farms across the Pampas. An environmental dashboard was provided to represent in a graphical way the behavior of farms. The method provides a tool to discriminate environmentally friendly farms from those that do not pay enough attention to environmental issues. Our procedure might be useful for implementing an ecological certification system to reward a good environmental behavior in society (e.g., through tax benefits) and generate a commercial advantage (e.g., through the allocation of green labels) for committed farmers.     

Evaluating the use of Social Impact Assessment in the context of agricultural development projects in Iran

The utilisation of Social Impact Assessment (SIA) in Iran is analysed in terms of its policy context and its application in practice. Five case studies where SIA was employed in conjunction with Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) for agricultural development projects are evaluated. In addition, the performance of the policy context is assessed. This research revealed that there are legal and institutional constraints to the effective functioning of SIA in Iran, and that there are deficiencies in the operating guidelines. There were serious problems associated with the way SIA was undertaken in all five case studies. Recommendations to improve the policy framework for the conduct of SIA are made. The recommendations advocate for a higher profile of SIA within legislation, for social issues to have greater emphasis in official guidelines for the conduct of EIA and SIA, and for a range of measures to increase the professionalism of SIA practice.