Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Radiological Dispersion Devices: are we prepared?

Already before the events of September 11th 2001 concern was raised about the spread of orphan sources and their potential use in Radiological Dispersion Devices by terrorist groups. Although most of the simulated scenarios foresee a rather limited direct health impact on the population, the affected region would suffer from the indirect consequences such as social disruption, cleanup requirements and economic costs. The nature of such a radiological attack would anyway be different compared to conventional radiological accidents, basically because it can happen anywhere at any time. Part of the response resides in a general preparedness scheme incorporating attacks with Radiological Dispersion Devices. Training of different potential intervention teams is essential. The response would consist of a prioritised list of actions adapted to the circumstances. As the psychosocial dimension of the crisis could be worse than the purely radiological one, an adapted communication strategy with the public aspect would be a key issue.     

Sustainable forest management in Iran: a factor analysis

Since 1996, several Forest Resources Management Plans (FRMPs) have been launched by the Iranian government in order to approach sustainable forest management in the Zagros area in west and south-west Iran. This survey study aimed to provide some policy recommendations in order to launch more successful FRMPs. Using a proportional cluster random sampling method, data were collected from 208 forest-dwellers (beneficiaries) and 90 practitioners. The results showed that the FRMPs are far from satisfactory. There are several reasons for this failure. First, the financial resources allocated to these plans are being used for other purposes. Second, the inputs and supplies needed for effective forest management interventions were not in place in a timely manner. Third, the forest management in the area is far from being decentralized. Both the beneficiaries and practitioners believe that forest-dwellers play a weak role in forest management interventions. Factor analysis revealed that three main factors influencing the Zagros management effectiveness are “the management capabilities of forest-dwellers”, “the professional capabilities of practitioners in forest management”, and “public support for forest-dwellers”. The correlation analysis revealed that all the three factors are also positively and significantly associated with the success of the government’s forestry programs. Accordingly, the main recommendation of this study was to reformulate forest management policies in the Zagros area by highlighting participatory approaches, not only as a tool, but also as a goal of FRMPs.     

Atmospheric composition change research: Time to go post-normal?

For more than two decades a number of frameworks for scientific knowledge production are being proposed by science and technology researchers. They all advocate an extended involvement of non-specialists, in particular when it comes to knowledge production applicable to practical societal problems. We look to what extent these new frameworks have taken ground within a particular research community: the ACCENT Network of Excellence which coordinates European atmospheric chemistry and physics research applicable to air pollution and climate change. We did so by stimulating a debate through a “blog”, a survey and in-depth interviews with ACCENT scientists about the interaction between science, policy making and civil society, to which a great deal of ACCENT member contributed in writing or verbally. Most of them had interactions with policy makers and/or the general public, and they generally believe that interactions with spheres other than the scientific are needed. While such interactions give personal insight and satisfaction, they seem to have little impact on the goals and the practice of the scientific work itself. Extended frameworks of science production that go beyond the disciplinary mode seem to emerge at the level of individual scientists, yet they still need to find their way to the level of scientific project management. In this paper we discuss the justifications and barriers to implement a higher degree of extended knowledge integration in applied science projects such as ACCENT. It is felt that the community of atmospheric chemists and physicists is mature for such an implementation and recommendations are given to help and make this happen.     

Quantifying the global fractionation of polychlorinated biphenyls

Due to the wide range of their physical-chemical properties, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have played an important role in the derivation of the global fractionation hypothesis, which predicts changes in the composition of persistent organic pollutant mixtures with latitude. Recent historical emission estimates, the derivation of an internally consistent property data set, in combination with a zonally averaged global fate and transport model, allow a quantitative investigation of the compositional shifts PCBs experience as a function of environmental compartment, latitude and time. Model simulations reproduce the higher relative abundance of lighter PCB congeners with increasing latitude, observed in air and soil, and quantify the relative importance of partitioning, persistence and emissions in establishing PCB patterns. Compositional variations consistent with global fractionation, as well as inverted concentration profiles with higher levels in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, are consistent with only minor fractions of the global PCB inventory being transferred northward.     

The Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality project: an introduction

In the last part of the twentieth century, recognition became widespread of the important effect of agricultural runoff on the health of aquatic ecosystems in the Lake Erie basin and elsewhere. Because of the efforts to remediate Lake Erie, the "dead lake" among the Laurentian Great Lakes, a number of research and demonstration projects were undertaken in the Lake Erie basin to evaluate and foster adoption of conservation tillage and other farming techniques that would reduce runoff while maintaining productivity. In addition, intensive water quality studies of long duration were begun on major tributaries to Lake Erie during this time. The Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality (LEASEQ) project examined governmental programs, changes in agriculture, and changes in water and soil quality during the period 1975-1995, and sought to evaluate the linkages among these factors. The study area is characterized by extensive agricultural land use of soils developed from glacial materials deposited on Paleozoic sedimentary bedrock, mostly limestone. Tile drainage is extensive, particularly in slow-draining clay-rich lacustrine soils in the lower reaches of the watersheds. This paper introduces the study area, its geology, geography, soils, and agricultural history. In addition, we provide an overview of the LEASEQ concept and introduce the 11 other papers in this series, which provide a detailed exposition of the results of our studies.     

DIN Retention‐Transport Through Four Hydrologically Connected Zones in a Headwater Catchment of the Upper Mississippi River1

Abstract: Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) retention‐transport through a headwater catchment was synthesized from studies encompassing four distinct hydrologic zones of the Shingobee River Headwaters near the origin of the Mississippi River. The hydrologic zones included: (1) hillslope ground water (ridge to bankside riparian); (2) alluvial riparian ground water; (3) ground water discharged through subchannel sediments (hyporheic zone); and (4) channel surface water. During subsurface hillslope transport through Zone 1, DIN, primarily nitrate, decreased from ～3 mg‐N/l to <0.1 mg‐N/l. Ambient seasonal nitrate:chloride ratios in hillslope flow paths indicated both dilution and biotic processing caused nitrate loss. Biologically available organic carbon controlled biotic nitrate retention during hillslope transport. In the alluvial riparian zone (Zone 2) biologically available organic carbon controlled nitrate depletion although processing of both ambient and amended nitrate was faster during the summer than winter. In the hyporheic zone (Zone 3) and stream surface water (Zone 4) DIN retention was primarily controlled by temperature. Perfusion core studies using hyporheic sediment indicated sufficient organic carbon in bed sediments to retain ground water DIN via coupled nitrification‐denitrification. Numerical simulations of seasonal hyporheic sediment nitrification‐denitrification rates from perfusion cores adequately predicted surface water ammonium but not nitrate when compared to 5 years of monthly field data (1989‐93). Mass balance studies in stream surface water indicated proportionally higher summer than winter N retention. Watershed DIN retention was effective during summer under the current land use of intermittently grazed pasture. However, more intensive land use such as row crop agriculture would decrease nitrate retention efficiency and increase loads to surface water. Understanding DIN retention capacity throughout the system, including special channel features such as sloughs, wetlands and floodplains that provide surface water‐ground water connectivity, will be required to develop effective nitrate management strategies.     

EFFLUENT FEES,AN ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM FOR ACHIEVING WATER QUALITY: A CASE STUDY1

This paper reports the findings of a case study of the relative costs of a uniform standards system and an effluent fee system of water quality control. A 30-mile stretch of the Black Warrior River in Alabama is considered. The analysis demonstrates that the dischargers could reduce total pollution abatement costs by 33 percent under the suggested effluent fee system.     

ESTIMATING THE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOAD IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: The total suspended sediment loads of four north Mississippi reservoirs were determined from measurements of concentrations of suspended sediment in a vertical profile at several locations on each reservoir made during the year. These data were combined with the stage-height and known stage-volume relationships for each reservoir in a numerical integration to determine the total suspended sediment in the water body. Total suspended sediments were estimated using the product of the suspended sediment concentration in the surface water by the appropriate reservoir volume. The averaged ratios of the estimated to measured suspended sediment loads for each reservoir exceeded 0.90. Since the concentration of suspended sediments in surface waters of north Mississippi reservoirs has been shown as highly correlated with spectral reflectance, estimating the total suspended sediment of these reservoirs using remotely sensed spectral reflectance data is possible.