MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

Assessing the sustainability of water governance systems: the sustainability wheel

We present and test a conceptual and methodological approach for interdisciplinary sustainability assessments of water governance systems based on what we call the sustainability wheel. The approach combines transparent identification of sustainability principles, their regional contextualization through sub-principles (indicators), and the scoring of these indicators through deliberative dialogue within an interdisciplinary team of researchers, taking into account their various qualitative and quantitative research results. The approach was applied to a sustainability assessment of a complex water governance system in the Swiss Alps. We conclude that the applied approach is advantageous for structuring complex and heterogeneous knowledge, gaining a holistic and comprehensive perspective on water sustainability, and communicating this perspective to stakeholders.     

Molecular studies on the ouabain binding site of the Na+, K+-ATPase in milkweed butterflies

Summary. The Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase of the Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) is insensitive to the inhibition by cardiac glycosides due to an amino acid replacement: histidine instead of asparagine at position 122 of the α-subunit representing the ouabain binding site. By PCR amplification of the DNA sequence of this site, a PCR product of 270 bp was obtained from DNA extracted from Danainae species (Danaus plexippus, D. chrysippus, D. gillipus, D. philene, D. genutia, Tirumala hamata, Euploea spp., Parantica weiskei, P. melusine), Sphingidae (Daphnis nerii) and mimics of milkweed butterflies (Hypolimnas missipus, Limenitis archippus and L. arthemis, Nymphalidae). Analysis of the nucleotide sequences revealed that the single point mutation in the ouabain binding domain (AAC-Asn for CAC-His) was present only in Danaus plexippus, but not in the other species investigated. Since these milkweed butterflies also store cardenolides, other structural modifications of the Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase may have occurred or other strategies of cardenolide tolerance have been developed. Received 15 May 2000; accepted 29 June 2000     

Biodegradation of Poly(3-Hydroxybutyrate) Produced from Cupriavidus necator with Different Concentrations of Oleic Acid as Nutritional Supplement

The environmental impact caused by the disposal of plastics has motivated the development of biodegradable materials. Recent studies showed that supplementation with oleic acid (OA) in cultures producing poly(3-hydroxybutyrate), P(3HB), increased the polymer productivity. However only few studies have shown the properties and biodegradation profile of the polymer obtained. This research investigated the influence of OA concentration on the biodegradation of the P(3HB) obtained from cultures of Cupriavidus necator. The crystallinity of the casting films determined by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was reduced from 70% (0 g L⁻¹ of OA) to 52% (3.0 g L⁻¹ of OA). A reduction of 11 °C in the melting temperature was observed with 3.0 g L⁻¹ of OA. The kinetic of biodegradation was: 3.0 > 1.5 > 0.9 > 0.3 > 0 g L⁻¹ of OA.