Forest ecosystems and the changing patterns of nitrogen input and acid deposition today and in the future based on a scenario

A global assessment of the impact of the anthropogenic perturbation of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles on forest ecosystems is carried out for both the present-day [1980-1990] and for a projection into the future [2040-2050] under a scenario of economic development which represents a medium path of development according to expert guess [IPCC IS92a]. Results show that forest soils will receive considerably increasing loads of nitrogen and acid deposition and that deposition patterns are likely to change. The regions which are most prone to depletion of soils buffering capacity and supercritical nitrogen deposition are identified in the subtropical and tropical regions of South America and Southeast Asia apart from the well known 'hotspots' North-Eastern America and Central Europe. The forest areas likely to meet these two risks are still a minor fraction of the global forest ecosystems, though. But the bias between eutrophication and acidification will become greater and an enhanced growth triggered by the fertilizing effects of increasing nitrogen input cannot be balanced by the forest soils nutrient pools. Results show increasing loads into forest ecosystems which are likely to account for 46% higher acid loads and 36% higher nitrogen loads in relation to the 1980-1990 situation. Global background deposition of up to 5 kg N ha-1 a-1 will be exceeded at more than 25% of global forest ecosystems and at more than 50% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils. More than 33% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils will receive acid loads which exceeds their buffering capacity. About 25% of forest areas with exceeded acid loads will receive critical nitrogen loads.     

Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Objectives: The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

Methods: Two estimates of drivers’ self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

Results: A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.     

Feasibility study of preparation and certification of reference materials for nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide in diffusive samplers

This paper presents the results of a feasability study for the preparation and certification of reference materials (RMs) for nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) in diffusive samplers. RMs for NO(2) were prepared by exposure to gas mixtures in a chamber while the RMs for SO(2) were prepared by liquid spiking. Certification of RMs for NO(2) was found feasible with a certified uncertainty of 5.8% and a proposed shelf life of 5 years. The uncertainty was calculated with contribution from the homogeneity of preparation, stability and transport of the CRMs and from an external verification of the certified value. To reach 5.8% of uncertainty, the contribution of the differences between the results of analysis by ion chromatography and colorimetry must be eliminated. It is proposed to solve this by pre-extracting the samplers with water before analysis. The results of this study indicate that the samplers are stable for at least two years before and after exposure when stored in a refrigerator. By contrast, the certification of RMs for SO(2) was found to not be feasible due to instability problems. This instability was attributed to reaction of sulfate on the walls of the samplers. Alternatively, the preparation of RMs by simultaneous exposure to SO(2) and NO(2) has been tested. Satisfying homogeneities has been reached both for NO(2) and SO(2).