经济发展与农业面源污染：分解模型与实证研究

借鉴Islam的研究思路,构建农业面源污染影响因素分解的理论模型。并利用1990～2010年省际面板数据进行实证研究,探讨农业面源污染演变的内在驱动机制,以期为农业面源污染控制和管理提供理论依据。主要研究结论如下：（1）农业面源污染演变受规模效应、结构效应和减污效应的共同影响;（2）规模效应对农业面源污染的影响为正,这说明农业生产规模和农村人口规模的扩大会增大农业面源污染的排放。结构效应的两个重要方面（经济作物比重的提高和畜禽养殖业产值比重的提高）都会导致农业面源污染的加剧。技术进步和经济发展的减污效应开始初步发挥,二者都能有效减少农业面源污染,这为实现农业生产与生态环境的协调发展提供了可能     

Spatial-temporal analysis of wetland landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta

The influence of anthropogenic activities,especially artificial dykes,on the coastal wetland landscape is now considered as a serious problem to the coastal ecosystem.It is important and necessary to analyze changes of coastal landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes for the protection and management of coastal wetland.Our study aimed to reveal the quantitative characteristics of the coastal wetland landscape and its spatial-temporal dynamics under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta(YRD).It was analyzed by the methods of the statistical analysis of landscape structure,five selected landscape indices and the changes of spatial centroids of three typical wetland types,including reed marshes,tidal fiats and aquaculture-salt fields.The results showed that:(1)Reduction of wetland area,especially the degradation of natural wetlands,had been the principal problem since the dykes were constructed in the YRD.The dykes created conditions for the development of artificial wetlands.However,the new born artificial wetlands were still less than the vanished natural wetlands.(2)Compared with the open area,the building of artificial dykes significantly speeded up the changes of landscape patterns and the aggravation of the landscape fragmentation in the closed area.(3)The changes of area-weighted centroids of three typical wetland landscapes were greatly affected by dykes,and the movement of the centroid of the aquaculture-salt field was very sensitive to the dykes constructed in the corresponding period.     

Urbanization in China Based on International Comparison: A Discussion with Two Prevalent Views

Abstract>

Two prevalent views are reviewed on China’s urbanization firstly. Then, this article highlights the characteristics and pattern of urbanization in the world based on the quadrants map, using data of 118 countries or areas. The results indicate that the process of urbanization in the world excluding the data of China has slowed down gradually. A further exploration examines China’s urbanization process and economic development over time, which reveals that both urbanization level and the level of economic development belong to the low-grade coordination pattern. The low level of urbanization is closely connected with the low level of economic development. Actually, China’s urbanization gap appeared during 1985–1995, but it has been eliminating this urbanization gap since 1995 as a result of rapid urbanization growing. The complicated realities revealed in this analysis challenge the existing two prevalent views.     

清洁发展机制与中国对策

清洁发展机制是应对气候变化国际法律制度之下的补充性履约措施。通过阐述清洁发展机制的渊源、清洁发展机制的实质内涵和基本特征,总结中国清洁发展机制项目实践,揭示中国应用清洁发展机制的偏差,预测清洁发展机制发展方向,指出中国将被迫退出清洁发展机制,提出中国面向清洁发展机制的具体对策。     

Rank regression analysis of correlated water quality data from South East Queensland

With growing population and fast urbanization in Australia, it is a challenging task to maintain our water quality. It is essential to develop an appropriate statistical methodology in analyzing water quality data in order to draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advices in water management. This paper is to develop robust rank-based procedures for analyzing nonnormally distributed data collected over time at different sites. To take account of temporal correlations of the observations within sites, we consider the optimally combined estimating functions proposed by Wang and Zhu (Biometrika, 93:459–464, 2006) which leads to more efficient parameter estimation. Furthermore, we apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Smoothing leads to easy calculation of the parameter estimates and their variance-covariance matrix. Analysis of water quality data from Total Iron and Total Cyanophytes shows the differences between the traditional generalized linear mixed models and rank regression models. Our analysis also demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models for analyzing nonnormal data.     

Comprehensive and high-resolution emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the northernmost cities agglomeration of Harbin-Changchun, China: Implications for local atmospheric environment management

Using a bottom-up estimation method, a comprehensive, high-resolution emission inventory of gaseous and particulate atmospheric pollutants for multiple anthropogenic sectors with typical local sources has been developed for the Harbin-Changchun city agglomeration (HCA). The annual emissions for CO, NOx, SO₂, NH₃, VOC_S, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC and OC during 2017 in the HCA were estimated to be 5.82 Tg, 0.70 Tg, 0.34 Tg, 0.75 Tg, 0.81Tg, 0.67 Tg, 1.59 Tg, 0.12 Tg and 0.26 Tg, respectively. For PM₁₀ and SO₂, the emissions from industry processes were the dominant contributors representing 54.7% and 49.5%, respectively, of the total emissions, while 95.3% and 44.5% of the total NH₃ and NOx emissions, respectively, were from or associated with agricultural activities and transportation. Spatiotemporal distributions showed that most emissions (except NH₃) occurred in November to March and were concentrated in the central cities of Changchun and Harbin and the surrounding cities. Open burning of straw made an important contribution to PM_2.5 in the central regions of the northeastern plain during autumn and spring, while domestic coal combustion for heating purposes was significant with respect to SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions during autumn and winter. Furthermore, based on Principal Component Analysis and Multivariable Linear Regression model, air temperature, relative humidity, electricity and energy consumption, and the urban and rural population were optimized to be representative indicators for rapidly assessing the magnitude of regional atmospheric pollutants in the HCA. Such indicators and equations were demonstrated to be useful for local atmospheric environment management.     

Spatiotemporal variations of ambient air pollutants and meteorological influences over typical urban agglomerations in China during the COVID-19 lockdown

To investigate the air quality change during the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of six criteria pollutants in nine typical urban agglomerations in China using ground-based data and examined meteorological influences through correlation analysis and backward trajectory analysis under different responses. Concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂ and CO in urban agglomerations respectively decreased by 18%–45% (30%–62%), 17%–53% (22%–39%), 47%-64% (14%–41%), 9%–34% (0%–53%) and 16%-52% (23%–56%) during Lockdown (Post-lockdown) period relative to Pre-lockdown period. PM_2.5 pollution events occurred during Lockdown in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebe (BTH) and Middle and South Liaoning (MSL), and daily O₃ concentration rose to grade Ⅱ standard in Post-lockdown period. Distinct from the nationwide slump of NO₂ during Lockdown period, a rebound (～40%) in Post-lockdown period was observed in Cheng-Yu (CY), Yangtze River Middle-Reach (YRMR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD). With slightly higher wind speed compared with 2019, the reduction of PM_2.5 (51%–62%) in Post-lockdown period is more than 2019 (15%–46%) in HC (Harbin-Changchun), MSL, BTH, CP (Central Plain) and SP (Shandong-Peninsula), suggesting lockdown measures are effective to PM_2.5 alleviation. Although O₃ concentrations generally increased during the lockdown, its increment rate declined compared with 2019 under similar sunlight duration and temperature. Additionally, unlike HC, MSL and BTH, which suffered from additional (> 30%) air masses from surrounding areas after the lockdown, the polluted air masses reaching YRD and PRD mostly originated from the long-distance transport, highlighting the importance of joint regional governance.     

Contents and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides in vegetable soils of Guangzhou, China

We investigated contents, distribution and possible sources of PAHs and organochlorine pesticides (Ops) in 43 surface and subsurface soils around the urban Guangzhou where variable kinds of vegetables are grown. The results indicate that the contents of PAHs (16 US EPA priority PAHs) range from 42 to 3077 microg/kg and the pollution extent is classified as a moderate level in comparison with other investigations and soil quality standards. The ratios of methylphenanthrenes to phenanthrene(MP/P), anthracene to anthracene plus phenanthrene (An/178), benz[a]anthracene to benz[a]anthracene plus chrysene (BaA/228), indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene to indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene plus benzo[ghi]perylene (In/In+BP) suggest that the sources of PAHs in the soil samples are mixed with a dominant contribution from petroleum and combustion of fossil fuel. The correlation analysis shows that the PAHs contents are significantly related to total organic carbon contents (TOC) (R2=0.75) and black carbon contents (BC) (R2=0.62) in the soil samples. Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and metabolites (DDTs) and hexachlorocyclohexanes and metabolites (HCHs) account largely for the contaminants of OPs. The concentrations of DDTs range from 3.58 to 831 microg/kg and the ratios for DDT/(DDD+DDE) are higher than 2 in some soil samples, suggesting that DDT contamination still exists and may be caused by its persistence in soils and/or impurity in the pesticide dicofol. The concentrations of HCHs are 0.19-42.3 microg/kg.     

构建适应保护资源的政策法律新框架

本文分析了我国资源保护的特殊要求;认为我国进入了强化资源保护阶段,资源保护立法必须适应这个阶段;在此基础上,提出了我国资源保护政策法律新体制的基本构想和建议。     

全球变化对长江三角洲土地持续利用的影响及其对策

全球变化对区域土地持续利用的影响表现为其多方面内容从不同侧面直接或间接地对区域土地利用生产性、安全性、保持性,可行性和接受性产生影响,在长江三角洲地区,全球变化对土地持续利用的影响主要表现为不利的方面：（1）海平面上升导致土地面积减少及土壤性质恶化;（2）自然灾害增多导致土地利用安全性降低;（3）酸雨危害加重导致土地生态环境恶化;（4）地表植被减少及湿润指数降低导致土地退化加剧,针对以上问题,应采取以下对策以促进长江三角洲土地持续利用;（1）加强全球变化监测与预警;（2）制定适应于全球变化的土地持续利用规划;（3）增强土地利用对全球变化的应变能力;（4）加强全球合作,减缓不利于人类生存的全球变化速度。