Estimating means and variances: The comparative efficiency of composite and grab samples

This paper compares the efficiencies of two sampling techniques for estimating a population mean and variance. One procedure, called grab sampling, consists of collecting and analyzing one sample per period. The second procedure, called composite sampling, collectsn samples per period which are then pooled and analyzed as a single sample. We review the well known fact that composite sampling provides a superior estimate of the mean. However, it is somewhat surprising that composite sampling does not always generate a more efficient estimate of the variance. For populations with platykurtic distributions, grab sampling gives a more efficient estimate of the variance, whereas composite sampling is better for leptokurtic distributions. These conditions on kurtosis can be related to peakedness and skewness. For example, a necessary condition for composite sampling to provide a more efficient estimate of the variance is that the population density function evaluated at the mean (i.e.f()) be greater than . If , then a grab sample is more efficient. In spite of this result, however, composite sampling does provide a smaller estimate of standard error than does grab sampling in the context of estimating population means.     

Empowering women. The solution to a global crisis

Norway's Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland holds a medical degree from the University of Oslo and a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard University. She served as Norway's Minister of the Environment during 1974-79, and was elected to the Norwegian parliament in 1977. Brundtland is currently chairperson of the World Commission on Environment and Development with ten years of experience as a physician and twenty years as a politician. An edited version of her keynote address to the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development is presented. The Minister's experience has taught her that improved life conditions, a greater range of choices, access to unbiased information, and true international solidarity are the signs of human progress. She stresses the need to empower people, educate them, care for their health, and provide them with equal opportunity to achieve economically. Available combined resources need to be used more efficiently through a reformed and better coordinated UN system, policies must be changed, the role and status of women strengthened, safe, comprehensive reproductive health services provided, and measures taken to achieve a balance between population size and sustainable development in keeping with available global resources.     

Declines in organochlorines in eggs of red-breasted mergansers from Lake Michigan, 1977–1978 versus 1990

From 1977–1978 to 1990, concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and most organochlorine pesticides declined in eggs of red-breasted mergansers (Mergus serrator) nesting on islands in northwestern Lake Michigan. Total PCBs decreased 60% (from 21 ppm in 1977–1978 to 8.5 ppm in 1990) and p,p-DDE decreased 66% (from 6.5 to 2.2 ppm). Dieldrin decreased only 16% (from 0.82 to 0.69 ppm). In 1990, 79.1% of incubated eggs hatched, which was not significantly different from the 83.5% that hatched in 1977–1978.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

Estimating the change of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present using a carbon cycle model

The authors used a global High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), consisting of a biome model and a carbon cycle model, to estimate the changes of carbon storage in the major pools of the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present. The climate change data to drive the biosphere for 18 000 BP were derived from an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Using the AGCM anomalies interpolated to a 0.5 degrees grid, the HRBM data base of the present climate was recalculated for 18 000 BP. The most important processes which influenced the carbon storage include (1) climate-induced changes in biospheric processes and vegetation distribution, (2) the CO(2) fertilization effect, (3) the inundation of lowland areas resulting from the sea level rise of 100 m. Two scenarios were investigated. The first scenario, which ignored the CO(2) fertilization effect, led to total carbon losses from the terrestrial biosphere of -460 x 10(9) t. Scenario 2, which assumed that the model formulation of the CO(2) fertilization effect as used for preindustrial to present could be extrapolated to the glacial 200 microl litre(-1) (ppmv, parts per million per volume), gave a carbon fixation in the terrestrial biosphere of +213 x 10(9) t. The two scenarios were compared with CO(2) concentration data and isotopic ratios from air in ice cores. The results of Scenario 1 are not in agreement with the data. Scenario 2 gives realistic delta(13)C shifts in the atmosphere but the biospheric carbon storage at the end of the glacial period seems too large. The authors suggest that the low atmospheric CO(2) concentration may have favoured the C-4 plants in ice age vegetation types. As a consequence the influence of the low CO(2) concentration was eventually reduced and the glacial carbon storage in vegetation, litter, and soil was increased.     

Growth and development of cellular slime mould Dictyostelium discoideum treated with DDT

The effects of dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) on the growth, phagocytic activity, ultrastructure and developmental stages of a well known species of the cellular slime mould, Dictyostelium discoideum were studied. DDT, at doses of 60 ppm and above, inhibited growth of the vegetative cells and this was also evident from the colony blots which were smaller in size. A dose-dependent inhibition occurred in the phagocytic activity and macromolecular syntheses of DDT-treated cells. The cytomorphology of growing Dictyostelium cells, as revealed under light and electron microscopes, was profoundly affected by DDT treatment. Further, a considerable delay occurred in the various morphogenetic events in the slime mould cells exposed to DDT.     

Effects of acid rain on growth and nutrient concentrations in Scots pine and Norway spruce seedlings grown in a nutrient-rich soil

The effects of artificially applied acid precipitation on growth and nutrient concentrations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) seedlings were investigated in a long-term acid irrigation experiment in field conditions. Seedlings of northern and southern origin were planted in boxes containing peat and composted soil rich in nutrients, and sprinkler irrigated with water acidified with nitric and sulphuric acids to pH 3 or pH 4 for periods varying from two to three and a half growing seasons during 1986-1989. Water irrigated (pH 5.4-7.6) and non-irrigated groups of seedlings were also included in the experiment. At the end of the experiment needles, main and lateral shoots and roots were collected from the seedlings for the determination of height growth and biomass partitioning, and for the analysis of S, N, Mg, P, K, Ca, Mn and Fe concentrations. The treatment effects compared to the irrigated control were studied using multivariate analyses of variance and covariance. In the pine seedlings the total dry matter production increased by 25-70% compared with the irrigated controls when the total wet deposition to the seedlings exceeded 67 kg S ha(-1) and 36 kg N ha(-1) (e.g. after two growing seasons' exposure of the pH 3 treatment). The increase was mainly due to an increase in needle dry weight (54-72% greater at pH 3) and root weight (20-65% greater at pH 3), whereas the height growth or shoot weight growth were less affected. The northern provenance pine seedlings responded more clearly to the pH 3 irrigation than the southern ones. The treatments had no consistent effects on any of the growth variables studied in the spruce seedlings, however. The pines had higher root and foliage Ca concentrations as a result of the acid irrigation, whereas in spruce, acid rain decreased the Ca concentration in needles and shoots. Root Mn and Fe concentrations were higher in both species as a result of the pH 3 treatment. A higher soil conductivity and Ca concentration resulted from the prolonged pH 3 treatment. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the long-term growth and nutrient allocation response of conifers to acid precipitation is dependent both on the tree species and on the nutritional status of the soil.     

Interactions between copper and cadmium modify metal organ distribution in mature tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus

Sexually mature female tilapia were exposed to sublethal concentrations of waterborne Cu and/or Cd over 6 days, and subsequent body concentrations of these metals were determined in several organs. The results show that the distribution of Cu and Cd was metal and organ specific. This is demonstrated, for example, by the observation that in tilapia, Cu exposure did not result in Cu accumulation in the liver, whereas in the intestinal wall, notably high concentrations of Cu and Cd were measured in metal exposed fish. In addition to single metal exposed fish, we also determined Cu and Cd body distribution in Cu?Cd co-exposed fish. The observed interactions in metal accumulation were most pronounced in the organs of fish exposed to low, environmentally realistic, metal concentrations.     

Estimation of volatile organic compounds in Kuwaiti houses after the Gulf war

Interest in indoor air quality is steadily increasing. Exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is associated with health effects as diverse as childhood respiratory disease, lung cancer and cardiovascular disease. In an effort to assess the environmental impact indoors from possible sources of VOCs, such as (i) open oil lakes, (ii) chemical and petrochemical industries and (iii) indoor pollution from household items, concentrations of aliphatic and aromatic VOCs, comprising n-hexane to n-hexadecane, benzene, toluene, xylene, ethyl benzene, methanol and o-dichlorobenzene, were measured in indoor air samples from seven different cities in Kuwait using a gas chromatograph. The data for the period March to May 1993 are presented. The VOCs, as measured, were surprisingly low and they are below the concentrations set by the American Hygienists Association. However, although the concentration of the estimated VOCs being low, were cumulative effects of them entering the human body and water sources cannot be ruled out.     

Marginal bleaching of thalli of Rhizocarpon as evidence for acid rain in the Norra Storfjället, Sweden

Recent lichen surveys in the foreland of The Syterb?cken glacier reveal that the crustose lichens, principally species of Rhizocarpon section Rhizocarpon, exhibit marginal bleaching, readily distinguishable from normal pigmented forms. The largest elliptical thallus of Rhizocarpon measured 290 mm maximum diameter on a bedrock outcrop beyond the margin of Little Ice Age moraines in the upper Syterb?cken Valley. Many small and large thalli of Rhizocarpon suffered damage to the periphery of individual thalli. We examine here some of the possible hypotheses explaining these occurrences. Among others, these are bedrock lithology, ice crystal blasting, long-term snowbank cover, ultraviolet exposure and acid rain. While at this time none of the possibilities can be ruled out entirely, acid rain would appear to be at least one of the factors involved. Acid rain, which is known to produce a soil pH as low as 3.3 in the field area, appears to provide a high input of H(+) ions that the lichen algal component cannot withstand. However, the lack of similar effects on associated foliose or fruticose forms raises the possibility that perhaps two or more factors specific to the environment of Rhizocarpon are operating.