The Need for Scale Sensitive Approaches in Spatially Explicit Land Use Change Modeling

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.     

Land Use Changes in Regional Economic Theory

Land use and land cover changes are a major source of environmental degradation and therefore a serious issue in sustainable development studies and in the integrated assessment of environmental problems. In an attempt to understand part of the complexity of land use change we here aim to explore the ways in which economists deals with the land use issue. We argue that space is one of the forgotten items in economics. Economists often seem to ignore high-resolution spatial dynamics either because they are not considered as an important feature of the problem or out of habit. It seems as though there is a trade-off between spatial resolution and human behaviour in current applications. Certain types of models are capable of capturing the spatial complexity of urban and regional areas, for instance, by using cellular automata. Other types of land use models clearly have shortcomings where it concerns spatial detail. Dynamic modelling approaches do not guarantee a high spatial resolution.We propose to give more attention to agent based modelling as this type of modelling provides a specific connection between processes on micro level and macro-level spatial structures.     

Migratory crustaceans as biomonitors of metal pollution in their nursery areas. The Lesina lagoon (SE Italy) as a case study

Lichens collected in an unpolluted forest (background) in November 2004, transplanted at 41 sampling sites along the Madina-Tetteh Quarshie road, retrieved in February 2005 and analysed were found to contain higher concentrations of Manganese (Mn), Vanadium (V), lead, Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr) and Nickel (Ni) than in the background area. Observations showed that of all the heavy metals studied, Manganese concentrations were highest at all sampling points with maximum values around a traffic light, an intersection and car fitting/mechanic workshops. Significant correlations were found between Ni and Mn, Mn and Cr and Mn and V. Statistical analysis also revealed a relatively even dispersion of the studied elements on the eastern side of the road than on the western side.     

Magnesium hydroxide bulk and colloid-associated 152Eu in an alkaline environment: colloid characterisation and sorption properties in the presence and absence of carbonate

The distribution of 152Eu between magnesium hydroxide bulk, colloids and solution has been assessed under alkaline conditions, such as those in nuclear fuel storage ponds. The colloidal phase has been characterised by two complementary methods: coupled ultrafiltration-ICP-AES and scanning electron microscopy. The quantity and the size distribution of the colloidal phase is strongly ionic strength-dependent. A decrease of the quantity of colloids, in particular the larger size ranges, has been observed with increasing ionic strength. Small colloids (1 kDa-10 kDa fraction) are predominant at all ionic strengths. The morphology of colloids, observed by field-emission gun scanning electron microscopy, appears to change from hexagonal prismatic (characteristic to the mineral) to spherical (energetically more favourable) as size decreases. The distribution of 152Eu between the solid and liquid/colloidal phases has been investigated at carbonate concentrations ranging from 0 to 10(-2) M by coupled ultrafiltration and gamma-spectrometry. Mg(OH)2 bulk appears to be a very strong sorbent for 152Eu, since complete sorption onto the bulk happens for carbonate concentrations as high as 10(-3) M. Scavenging of 152Eu by Mg(OH)2 colloids is negligible in the presence of Mg(OH)2 bulk. The distribution of 152Eu between liquid and colloidal phases has been investigated in the absence of bulk at various carbonate concentrations. A significant uptake of 152Eu by the colloids in solution has been observed, which decreases with increasing carbonate concentration. 152Eu appears to be mainly associated to the smallest colloids (1 kDa-10 kDa fraction). There is a strong correlation between the sorption properties and the surface area of the colloids.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

Cross-border response of mosses to heavy metal atmospheric deposition in Southeastern Bulgaria and European Turkey

First cross-border atmospheric pollution of 11 heavy metals and toxic elements assessed by Hypnum cupressiforme was reported for a part of Southeastern Europe (Southeastern Bulgaria and European Turkey). Moss monitoring technique followed the main requirements of European Moss Survey. Moss samples were collected in April 2006 both in Bulgaria and Turkey. Concentration of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Sb, V, and Zn were determined by ICP-AES. Interlaboratory parallel calibration (exchanged four moss samples from each country), standard reference moss materials (M2 and M3) results ensured the study. ANOVA showed no differences between measured results in both laboratories at the 99% confidence level. Principle Component Analyze proved two factors: F1 group of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Fe, Ni, and V and F2 of Cu, Pb, and Zn as main atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained showed approximately Cu and Pb high concentrations around Istanbul and Burgas and Zn pollution in Istanbul district. Arsenic cross-border atmospheric pollution in the study area of Southeastern Europe was found.     

An assessment of fluoride in the coastal aquifer of the Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat (India)

The fluoride (F) concentration in the coastal aquifers of Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat was determined by potentiometric method using an ion-selective electrode. The fluoride concentration in these aquifers varies between 0.060 to 3.51 mg/L. It was also found that F has a positive correlation with pH and HCO(3)(-) whereas negatively correlated with Ca(2+), indicating that high fluoride in ground water is associated with low calcium content. This suggests that the higher pH of water promotes the leaching of fluoride and thus affects the concentration of fluoride in the ground water. It was also found that there exists no relationship between F, EC, and ground water table from surface in the ground water.     

A comparison of techniques to sample salamander assemblages along highland streams of Maryland

Amphibians may be useful indicators of biological condition in small streams so determining which sampling technique maximizes encounters at the least cost and at the optimal time of year is important. Area constrained surveys (ACS), used by the Maryland Biological Stream Survey, were tested against cover board surveys, drift fences with pitfall and funnel traps, quadrat leaf litter searches, and leaf litter bags. Sixteen, 100 m-long sites were established in headwater streams in the Savage River State Forest in Garrett County, Maryland. Each technique was randomly assigned to a 25 m stream section within each overall sampling site, and sites were sampled once each month from May to October (2005) with additional sampling in March and April (2006). Area constrained surveys yielded means of 2.7 taxa and 14.9 total individuals per sampling visit, which was significantly higher than the yield of all other methods in all months except October and March, when yields were low for all techniques. Area constrained surveys were also significantly more cost-effective per taxon and per individual compared to all other methods. September produced the most taxa and individuals, October and March produced the least, and yields for April through August were similar to September. We employed removal sampling at four sites in April 2006, but abundance could not be estimated because a significant linear decrease in the accumulated catch versus catch per unit effort did not occur for three of the sites.     

Principal response curves technique for the analysis of multivariate biomonitoring time series

Although chemical and biological monitoring is often used to evaluate the quality of surface waters for regulatory purposes and/or to evaluate environmental status and trends, the resulting biological and chemical data sets are large and difficult to evaluate. Multivariate techniques have long been used to analyse complex data sets. This paper discusses the methods currently in use and introduces the principal response curves method, which overcomes the problem of cluttered graphical results representation that is a great drawback of most conventional methods. To illustrate this, two example data sets are analysed using two ordination techniques, principal component analysis and principal response curves. Whereas PCA results in a difficult-to-interpret diagram, principal response curves related methods are able to show changes in community composition in a diagram that is easy to read. The principal response curves method is used to show trends over time with an internal reference (overall mean or reference year) or external reference (e.g. preferred water quality or reference site). Advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed and illustrated.     

Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to deforestation in Northeastern Turkey: a case study in Rize

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzes spatial and temporal changes in land use and forest cover patterns in a typical mountain forest area in Rize Forest Enterprise of the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1984 and 2007 using GIS and FRAGSTATS. The quantative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/forest cover. As an overall change between 1984 and 2007, there was a net decrease of 2.30% in total forested areas. On one hand, productive forest areas decreased 12,506 ha, on the other hand, degraded forest areas increased 14,805 ha. In examining the changes of crown closure and development stages of forest ecosystem during the study period, the forest stand area with medium crown closures increased. Regenerated area increased while the other development stages were left to grow to mature development stages in the period. These results regarding to crown closure and development stage showed that forest quality has increased but total forest areas decreased. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Rize and Cayeli towns. In terms of spatial configuration, analysis of the metrics revealed that landscape structure in Study area had changed substantially over the 23-year study period, resulting in fragmentation of the landscape as indicated by the large patch numbers and the smaller mean patch sizes due to heavy timber subtraction, illegal cutting, and uncontrolled stand treatments.