A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km²) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.     

Living close, doing differently: small-scale asynchrony in demography of two species of seabirds

Studies on spatiotemporal pattern of population abundance predict that close populations should exhibit a high level of synchrony, reflected in a parallel time variation of at least one demographic parameter. We tested this prediction for two threatened species of Procellariiformes sharing similar life history traits: the European Storm Petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus) and the Balearic Shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus). Within each species, we compared adult survival, proportion of transients (breeders that do not settle), and average productivity at two neighboring colonies. Physical and environmental features (e.g., food availability) of the breeding sites were similar. However, while Balearic Shearwater colonies were free of predators, aerial predators occurred especially in one colony of the European Storm Petrel. Despite this difference, we found similar results for the two species. A high proportion of transient birds was detected in only one colony of each species, ranging between 0.00-0.38 and 0.10-0.63 for the petrels and shearwaters, respectively. This seems to be an emergent feature of spatially structured populations of seabirds, unrelated to colony size or predator pressure, that can have important demographic consequences for local population dynamics and their synchrony. Local survival of resident birds was different at each colony, an unexpected result, especially for predator-free colonies of Balearic Shearwater. Productivity varied between the two colonies of European Storm Petrels, but not between the two colonies of Balearic Shearwaters. We demonstrated that within each species, several demographic parameters were colony specific and sufficiently different to generate short-term asynchronous dynamics. Our findings suggest that, in spatially structured populations, local factors, such as predation or small-scale habitat features, or population factors, such as individual quality or age structure, can generate unexpected asynchrony between neighboring populations.     

Is spread of invasive species regulated? Using ecological theory to interpret statistical analysis

We investigate a recent proposal that invasive species display patterns of spatial "spread regulation" analogous to density-dependent regulation of population abundances. While invasive species do offer valuable tests of ecological theories about spatial spread, we argue that the statistical approach used in the study is not useful, and that the proposed definition of "spread regulation" is likely to be confusing. While concepts of negative feedbacks in spatial spread may be reasonable, the proposed definition of "spread regulation" encompasses accelerating, constant, or decelerating spread. There is no compelling biological or practical reason to adopt such a definition. Moreover, we show that the statistical patterns (from time series of ratios of newly to recently invaded sites) proposed as evidence of spread regulation are predictable from basic diffusion models or other common models of constant spread with some stochasticity in dynamics and/or observations. Because such a wide range of processes would generate the observed patterns, no clear biological conclusions emerge from the proposed approach to spread analysis. When regarded in the context of the impacts and management of invasive species, the proposed regulation concept has the potential to create costly misunderstandings.     

Comparative analysis of macrofaunal species richness and composition in Posidonia oceanica, Cymodocea nodosa and leaf litter beds

We investigated macrofaunal species richness and composition in Posidonia oceanica, Cymodocea nodosa and Leaf litter beds within a coastal area of the Gulf of Oristano in proximity of the Cabras lagoon (western Sardinia, Italy). A total of 124 taxa were found, of which 116 were identified at the species level. They were analyzed based on both taxonomic and substrate affinity classification. Presence/absence analysis revealed that P. oceanica, C. nodosa and Leaf litter were all characterized by a conspicuous number of soft-bottom polychaetes (e.g., Prionospio multibranchiata and Ampharete acutifrons) and crustaceans (e.g., Corophium sextonae and Dynamene bidentatus), also known as detritivores. There were also major differences between the three habitats investigated. Consistent with its structural complexity, P. oceanica showed the highest species richness [E(S ₅₀)] and the most diversified macrofaunal assemblages, both in terms of taxonomic groups and taxa associated with different substrates. The two seagrasses, however, showed a similar species composition and differed from Leaf litter for the exclusive presence of hard-bottom species (e.g., the tunicate Phallusia fumigata) and seagrass-associated species (e.g., the polychaete Syllis garciai and the decapod Paguristes syrtensis). In contrast, Leaf litter showed the most differences between the habitats, and was characterized by the bivalves Abra alba and Cerastoderma glaucum, not found in seagrass beds, and by Loripes lacteus and Ruditapes decussatus. Leaf litter also had the highest content of organic matter (26.7% ± 1.4) and total organic carbon (10.3% ± 0.4). Our results confirmed the facilitative role of living seagrasses, in particular P. oceanica, as related to their structural complexity, for numerous species from different substrates (e.g., hard bottom species). This study also showed that leaf litter beds act as a particular environment where sediment instability, leaf breakdown, and organic matter enrichment and decomposition strongly influence animal distribution. Finally, our results highlighted the ecological and trophic importance of seagrass-derived detritus and the associated macroinvertebrate detritivores within seagrass-dominated systems.     

Spatial–temporal pattern of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus L. 1758) gonad maturation across the Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is a migrating species straddling the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. It is assumed that this species is divided into a western and an eastern stock, which spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, respectively. To learn more about the reproductive behavior of the eastern BFT stock, we tracked gonadal development in adult fish that were sampled between April and July during three consecutive years (2003–2005). Sampling campaigns were carried out using common fishing methods at selected locations within the Mediterranean Sea, namely Levantine Sea, Malta, and Balearic Islands. An additional sampling point, Barbate, was situated northwest of the Straits of Gibraltar along the Atlantic coast. Morphometric parameters such as the total body mass (M _B) and the weights of the gonads (M _G) were recorded, and the respective gonadosomatic index (GSI) values were calculated. The data collected revealed two important trends: (1) GSI values are higher in fish caught in the eastern rather than the western locations across the Mediterranean Sea, and (2) the GSI reaches maximum values between late May and early June in Levantine Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea), and only 2 and 4 weeks later in the central (Malta) and western (Balearic Islands) locations, respectively. The advanced gonadal development in BFT correlates well with higher sea surface temperatures. Our findings also distinguish the northern Levantine Sea BFT population (mean M _B 78.41 ± 4.13 kg), and the Barbate BFT population with the greatest M _B (all fish sampled > 100 kg). These data reflect a situation in which the eastern Mediterranean basin may function as a habitat for young BFT, until they gain a larger M _B and are able to move to the Atlantic Ocean. However, the existence of genetically discrete BFT populations in the Mediterranean Sea cannot be ruled out.     

Uncertainty propagation in vegetation distribution models based on ensemble classifiers

Ensemble learning techniques are increasingly applied for species and vegetation distribution modelling, often resulting in more accurate predictions. At the same time, uncertainty assessment of distribution models is gaining attention. In this study, Random Forests, an ensemble learning technique, is selected for vegetation distribution modelling based on environmental variables. The impact of two important sources of uncertainty, that is the uncertainty on spatial interpolation of environmental variables and the uncertainty on species clustering into vegetation types, is quantified based on sequential Gaussian simulation and pseudo-randomization tests, respectively. An empirical assessment of the uncertainty propagation to the distribution modelling results indicated a gradual decrease in performance with increasing input uncertainty. The test set error ranged from 30.83% to 52.63% and from 30.83% to 83.62%, when the uncertainty ranges on spatial interpolation and on vegetation clustering, respectively, were fully covered. Shannon’s entropy, which is proposed as a measure for uncertainty of ensemble predictions, revealed a similar increasing trend in prediction uncertainty. The implications of these results in an empirical distribution modelling framework are further discussed with respect to monitoring setup, spatial interpolation and species clustering.     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Climate and maternal effects modify sex ratios in a weakly dimorphic marsupial

There is growing evidence that the sex ratios of wild vertebrate populations are determined by mechanisms that are directly influenced by environmental characteristics. The Trivers–Willard (TWH) and extrinsic modification (EMH) hypotheses postulate differing determinants of mammalian offspring sex ratios. TWH states that mothers allocate resources according to their current condition and sex-specific offspring costs. EMH states that environmental forces that affect maternal condition determine offspring sex ratios, independently of maternal tactics of sex-biased allocation. We statistically assessed support for each of these hypotheses using long-term life histories of the allied rock-wallaby, Petrogale assimilis; a continuously breeding, polygynous, weakly dimorphic marsupial. We showed that birth sex ratios were equal and independent of maternal and environmental conditions. However, secondary sex ratios were male-biased under good environmental conditions and for high quality mothers or mothers in good condition. Sex differences in offspring survival contributed to these biases: (1) environmental conditions strongly influenced survival to pouch emergence (in support of EMH) and (2) maternal quality affected survival to the end of maternal care (in support of TWH). Environmental effects on survival were more important than maternal factors over the entire period of maternal care and contributed most to male-biased sex ratios at pouch emergence. In contrast, maternal mass was the best predictor of sex ratios at the end of maternal care—the life history stage where offspring body mass differed between the sexes.     

Re-orientation in clock-shifted homing pigeons subjected to a magnetic disturbance: a study with GPS data loggers

Some authors have proposed that homing pigeons are able to correct the error in orientation following a phase-shift treatment by using the magnetic compass reference. They reported that clock-shifted pigeons bearing magnets display a greater deflection compared to magnetically unmanipulated clock-shifted birds. However, this hypothesis tested by recording pigeons’ vanishing bearings has led to contradictory results. The present study reports pigeons’ tracks recorded with a GPS and shows that clock-shifted pigeons bearing magnets displayed a greater deviation through the whole route compared to the magnetically unmanipulated shifted pigeons. Moreover, the analysis of the tracks shows that the birds belonging to both experimental groups stop in coincidence with their subjective night. When re-starting their journey, the birds corrected the clock-shift induced error in orientation, but the magnetically manipulated pigeons were less efficient in doing so. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that homing pigeons released from unfamiliar location re-orient after clock shift by using the magnetic compass.     

Bioassay-guided isolation of allelochemicals from Avena sativa L.: allelopathic potential of flavone C-glycosides

The allelopathic potential of oat (Avena sativa L., var. Argentina, Poaceae, Cyperales) was investigated under field and laboratory conditions. In field trials, oat plants provided an effective control of weeds, showing a species-specific impact: the most abundant weed species, Picris echioides was reduced by 94% in number of individuals. Aerial parts of oat plants, harvested immediately before soil incorporation, were utilized in a bioassay-guided isolation, which was aimed at identifying the phytotoxic compounds in a methanol/water extract of the aerial parts of the plants. Further partitions of extract gave an active n-butanol portion composed of flavonoids and saponins. Phytotoxic activity was detected for the flavonoid fraction, whereas no activity was found for the saponin mixture. Germination of an indicator species, lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.), was completely inhibited at flavonoid concentrations of 6.7, 10.0, and 20.0 mg/mL, and conversely the number of abnormal seedlings was greatly increased from 2% of control to over 96% at concentrations equal to 6.7 and 10.0 mg/mL. Analysis of the flavonoid fraction by ESI-MS techniques identified two components of the mixture as isoorientin 2-O-glucoside and isovitexin 2″-O-arabinoside. Saponins were characterized as avenacoside A, avenacoside B, 26-desglucoavenacoside A, and 26-desglucoavenacoside B. Both flavone C-glycosides and saponins were isolated previously from oat.