EMAP Design and River Reach File 3 (RF3) as a Sample Frame in the Central Valley, California

The Central Valley, California, R-EMAP project assessed the effects of highly modified, agriculturally dominated landuse on the aquatic resources of the lower portion of the Central Valley watersheds. The focus of this paper is to assess the utility of the EMAP design and the River Reach File version 3 (RF3) 1:100,000 scale Digital Line Graph (DLG) as a sampling frame. The study area is 34,099 mi²(88,316 km²) and comprises the lower reaches of the Sacramento River and San Joaquin River watersheds to the 1000 ft. (305 m) elevation. Sampling sites are selected using a tessellation stratified design to represent the two main populations of interest: natural streams and man-made waterways. Sites are selected to represent 13,226 miles of streams and sloughs, and 14,648 miles of irrigation canals, ditches and drains. To achieve an approximately equal sample size across stream orders and basins, the sample design was weighted by Strahler order categories to ensure sampling occurred in the higher order streams. Based on office and field reconnaissance, the study provided information on the quality of RF3 as a sampling frame. Site selection using RF3 had a success rate of approximately 44%. The RF3 database has an error rate of approximately 7%. When human influence factors were included, the error rate increased to 16%. There was an 11% error rate when selecting sites for natural streams, and approximately a 14% error rate for man-made waterways. The reconnaissance information indicated that presence or absence of irrigation ditches and return drains depends on changing agricultural uses. Some of the error in the RF3 for natural streams and man-made waterways can be attributed to rapid urban expansion, especially in the San Joaquin basin.     

Constructing “not Implausible” Climate and Economic Scenarios for Egypt

A space of “not-implausible” scenarios for Egypt's future under climate change is defined along two dimensions. One depicts representative climate change and climate variability scenarios that span the realm of possibility. Some would not be very threatening. Others portend dramatic reductions in average flows into Lake Nassar and associated increases in the likelihood of year to year shortfalls below critical coping thresholds; these would be extremely troublesome, especially if they were cast in the context of increased political instability across the entire Nile Basin. Still others depict futures along which relatively routine and relatively inexpensive adaptation might be anticipated. The ability to adapt to change and to cope with more severe extremes would, however, be linked inexorably to the second set of social–political–economic scenarios. The second dimension, defined as “anthropogenic” social/economic/political scenarios describe the holistic environment within which the determinants of adaptive capacity for water management, agriculture, and coastal zone management must be assessed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Using Geographically Isolated Loading Scenarios to Analyze Nitrogen and Phosphorus Exchanges and Explore Tailored Nutrient Control Strategies for Efficient Management

A set of geographically isolated differential nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) load model scenarios from major Chesapeake basins provides information on the relative impact of nutrient loads on primary production and dissolved oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay. Model results show the relationships of deep water dissolved oxygen with nutrient limitation-related algal blooms, organic carbon loads from the watershed, estuarine circulation, nutrient cycling, and nutrient diagenesis. The combined effect of changes in load from multiple basins is additive for changes in both chlorophyll-a and deep water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Management of both N and P are required in the Chesapeake watershed and tidal waters to achieve water quality standards, but overall efficiencies could be gained with strategies that place greater emphasis on P control in the upper Bay and greater emphasis on N control in the lower Bay. The areas of the Bay with the highest degree of dissolved oxygen degradation that generally drive management decisions are mostly P-limited and are significantly influenced by the load from the upper Bay’s basins. Reducing P from the upper Bay’s basins will intensify P limitation and would allow an increase in N of about six times the weight of P reduction. Combining the relative nutrient reduction effectiveness with the relative control cost information could improve management efficiency and provide benefits at a lower cost. This article describes initial steps that can be taken to examine the benefits from N-P exchanges.     

Characterizing dissolved organic matter and evaluating associated nanofiltration membrane fouling

Natural organic matter (NOM) characteristics were determined for three ground waters exhibiting different water quality conditions. The water quality of the three feed waters collected at various water table depths was characterized by XAD-8/-4 resin adsorption, high performance size exclusion chromatography with ultraviolet and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) detections, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) to determine NOM fractionation, molecular weight, and NOM functional groups, respectively. Systematic studies were conducted to identify potential NOM foulants in ground water for nanofiltration (NF) membrane fouling. The results show that the hydrophobic fraction of NOM in all of the samples was significantly high (71-93%) compared to the hydrophilic (1.7-22.6%) and transphilic (5.3-6.6%) fractions. However, insignificant flux-decline (less than 5%) was observed for the highest DOC (36.9 mg l(-1)) and hydrophobic NOM (93%) containing groundwater compared to the other lesser DOC and hydrophobic NOM containing ground waters. This is presumably due to either higher fractions of hydrophilic and transphilic NOM or inorganic interactions that may be major foulants. Based on FTIR, aromatic foulants were observed at 1662 cm(-1) (CO-NH2 or CO conjugated with aromatic rings) for the fouled NF membrane with the relatively low DOC source waters. The contact angle of the clean membrane (52 degrees ) decreased with fouling up to 42-47 degrees for fouled membranes with the various samples.     

Pesticides in urban multiunit dwellings: hazard identification using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis

Many units in public housing or other low-income urban dwellings may have elevated pesticide residues, given recurring infestation, but it would be logistically and economically infeasible to sample a large number of units to identify highly exposed households to design interventions. Within this study, our aim was to devise a low-cost approach to identify homes in public housing with high levels of pesticide residues, using information that would allow the housing authority and residents to determine optimal strategies to reduce household exposures. As part of the Healthy Public Housing Initiative, we collected environmental samples from 42 public housing apartments in Boston, MA, in 2002 and 2003 and gathered housing characteristics; for example, household demographics and self-reported pesticide use information, considering information available with and without a home visit. Focusing on five organophosphate and pyrethroid pesticides, we used classification and regression tree analysis (CART) to disaggregate the pesticide concentration data into homogenous subsamples according to housing characteristics, which allowed us to identify households and associated networks impacted by the mismanagement of pesticides. The CART analysis demonstrated reasonable sensitivity and specificity given more extensive household information but generally poor performance using only information available without a home visit. Apartments with high concentrations of cyfluthrin, a pyrethroid of interest given that it is a restricted use pesticide, were more likely to be associated with Hispanic residents who resided in their current apartment for more than 5 yr, consistent with documented pesticide usage patterns. We conclude that using CART as an exploratory technique to better understand the home characteristics associated with elevated pesticide levels may be a viable approach for risk management in large multiunit housing developments.     

Phylogeny-based conservation priorities for Australian freshwater fishes

Conservation scientists are increasingly interested in the question of how extinction prunes the tree of life. This question is particularly important for Australian freshwater fishes because there is a broad mix of ∼300 old and young species, many of which are severely threatened. We used a complete species-level phylogeny of Australian freshwater fishes to examine phylogenetic nonrandomness of extinction risk. We computed the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity by simulating extinction across the tree under a pattern weighted based on International Union for Conservation of Nature extinction risk category and compared this loss to projected diversity loss under a random null model of extinction. Finally, we calculated EDGE (evolutionary distinctiveness, global endangerment) scores for 251 freshwater and 60 brackish species and compiled a list of high-priority species for conservation actions based on their extinction risk and evolutionary uniqueness. Extinction risk was not random and was clustered in both diversity cradles (recently diversifying, species-rich clades, such as Galaxiidae and Percichthyidae) and museums (older, species-poor groups, such as freshwater chondrichthyans). Clustered extinction made little difference to the average expected loss of phylogenetic diversity. However, the upper bound of loss was higher under a selective model of extinction, particularly when the counts of species lost were low. Thus, the loss of highly threatened species would diminish the tree of life more than a null model of randomly distributed extinction.  High priority species included both widely recognized and charismatic ones, such as the Queensland lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri), river sharks, and freshwater sawfishes, and lesser-known species that receive less public attention, including the salamanderfish (Lepidogalaxias salamandroides), cave gudgeons, and many galaxiids, rainbowfishes, and pygmy perches.     

Identifying opportunities for expert-mediated triangulation in monitoring wildlife trade on social media

Wildlife trade has rapidly expanded on social media platforms in recent years, offering an easy means for traders to access international markets. Investigating this trade activity poses a complex challenge to researchers seeking to understand online trade and moderators seeking to disrupt illicit and harmful activity. Current survey methods frequently rely on text-based searches and focus on posts in which the advertisement is explicit. However, such approaches risk overlooking a growing volume of relevant content, particularly outside social media groups. We used posts from pages promoting West African birds for trade as a case study to explore the availability of information for making inferences about trade activity on social media, specifically information indicating that trade activity was occurring or that could be used to infer trade routes. We recorded 400 posts from 12 pages that we inferred either promoted or facilitated wildlife trade, of which 19.7% were explicit advertisements and 23.8% contained taxa-related terms. In the remaining 341 posts, profile information was the most common indicator of trade activity, but a variety of indicators (e.g., images of birds in trade and trade enquiries) were identified across imagery, text, and comments. We identified multiple types of geographical information that could help infer trade routes and thus the likely legality of trade, although most were relatively rare and sometimes contradictory. Our findings suggest that triangulating multiple types of information from within, across, and beyond posts is vital for effectively identifying and interpreting wildlife trade content on social media. Therefore, were commend that expert-mediated triangulation should be integrated in and used alongside automated detection systems and moderating practices of social media companies.