Islands at bay: rising seas,eroding islands,and waterbird habitat loss in Chesapeake Bay (USA)

Like many resources in the Chesapeake Bay region of the U.S., many waterbird nesting populations have suffered over the past three to four decades. In this study, historic information for the entire Bay and recent results from the Tangier Sound region were evaluated to illustrate patterns of island erosion and habitat loss for 19 breeding species of waterbirds. Aerial imagery and field data collected in the nesting season were the primary sources of data. From 1993/1994 to 2007/2008, a group of 15 islands in Tangier Sound, Virginia were reduced by 21% in area, as most of their small dunes and associated vegetation and forest cover were lost to increased washovers. Concurrently, nesting American black ducks (Anas rubripes) declined by 66% , wading birds (herons-egrets) by 51%, gulls by 72%, common terns (Sterna hirundo) by 96% and black skimmers (Rynchops niger) by about 70% in this complex. The declines noted at the larger Bay-wide scale suggest that this study area maybe symptomatic of a systemic limitation of nesting habitat for these species. The island losses noted in the Chesapeake have also been noted in other Atlantic U.S. coastal states. Stabilization and/or restoration of at least some of the rapidly eroding islands at key coastal areas are critical to help sustain waterbird communities.     

Extra-pair paternity in eastern bluebirds: effects of manipulated density and natural patterns of breeding synchrony

The causes of variation in rates of extra-pair paternity among avian populations remain unclear, but could include environmental factors such as breeding density and synchrony. By experimentally manipulating nest site availability, we tested the effects of breeding density on the frequency of extra-pair paternity in eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis). We also examined the role of breeding synchrony on extra-pair paternity using natural timing of nests. Microsatellite analysis revealed 34 of 305 nestlings (11.2%) were the result of extra-pair fertilizations; and 21 of 79 broods (26.6%) had at least one extra-pair nestling. Several measures of breeding density had independent effects on extra-pair paternity. First, experimental plot type affected extra-pair paternity, with 28 of 34 (82.4%) extra-pair young from nests in high density areas, and only six (17.6%) from nests in low density areas. Independently of plot type, the number of breeding neighbors within a 320-m radius was a significant predictor of the likelihood of extra-pair paternity at the nest. Extra-pair paternity was associated with temporal factors such as absolute timing of breeding and natural levels of local breeding synchrony, but only in bivariate comparisons. We found a positive interaction between density of neighbors within a 320-m radius and local breeding synchrony; this term reduced the main effects of synchrony and number of neighbors, but not experimental treatment. Our results demonstrate the importance of utilizing multiple aspects of proximity in breeding density analyses and testing for interactions between ecological factors that can influence the behavioral events leading to extra-pair fertilizations.     

Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary1

Boomer, Kathleen M.B., Donald E. Weller, Thomas E. Jordan, Lewis Linker, Zhi‐Jun Liu, James Reilly, Gary Shenk, and Alexey A. Voinov, 2012. Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐25. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00689.x Abstract: We analyzed an ensemble of watershed models that predict flow, nitrogen, and phosphorus discharges. The models differed in scope and complexity and used different input data, but all had been applied to evaluate human impacts on discharges to the Patuxent River or to the Chesapeake Bay. We compared predictions to observations of average annual, annual time series, and monthly discharge leaving three basins. No model consistently matched observed discharges better than the others, and predictions differed as much as 150% for every basin. Models that agreed best with the observations in one basin often were among the worst models for another material or basin. Combining model predictions into a model average improved overall reliability in matching observations, and the range of predictions helped describe uncertainty. The model average was not the closest to the observed discharge for every material, basin, and time frame, but the model average had the highest Nash–Sutcliffe performance across all combinations. Consistently poor performance in predicting phosphorus loads suggests that none of the models capture major controls. Differences among model predictions came from differences in model structures, input data, and the time period considered, and also to errors in the observed discharge. Ensemble watershed modeling helped identify research needs and quantify the uncertainties that should be considered when using the models in management decisions.     

Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data

Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A method to deal with this limitation combines the strengths of the Chesapeake Bay's Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM), which simulates load response, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's robust historical monitoring dataset. The method uses linear regression to apply simulated relative load responses to historical observations of water quality at a given location and time. Steps to optimize the application of regression analysis were to: (1) determine the best temporal and spatial scale for applying the WQSTM scenarios, (2) determine whether the WQSTM method remained valid with significant perturbation from calibration conditions, and (3) evaluate the need for log transformation of both dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (CHL) datasets. The final method used simple linear regression at the single month, single WQSTM grid cell scale to quantify changes in DO and CHL resulting from simulated load reduction scenarios. The resulting linear equations were applied to historical monitoring data to produce a set of “scenario‐modified” DO or CHL concentration estimates. The utility of the regression method was validated by its ability to estimate progressively increasing attainment in support of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay TMDL.     

The use of personalised social marketing to foster voluntary behavioural change for sustainable travel and lifestyles

Changing public attitudes and behaviour is key to achieving the UK target of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Top-down campaigns that have provided information to a passive public have not necessarily resulted in pro-environmental behavioural change. This paper examines the use of a personalised social marketing approach to engage the public in changing their personal travel. It provides the results of a project in the City of York to foster voluntary travel behavioural change. Using face-to-face discussions, personalised information and incentives, a statistically significant reduction in car use and an increase in cycling and the use of public transport were achieved over a six-month period. However, this change was not sustained 12 months later. The paper explores the contrasting perspectives on behavioural change and examines the possible lessons that can be learnt to foster voluntary behavioural change in other aspects of household consumption.     

A targeted social marketing approach for community pro-environmental behavioural change

Community-level initiatives will play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. This paper examines the experience gained in applying a targeted social marketing approach to foster local-scale community pro-environmental behavioural change in the City of York, UK. This involved determining the neighbourhood carbon footprint, identifying residents that had access to appropriate infrastructure and were receptive to green issues. Six community teams were recruited from the selected neighbourhoods and provided with information, advice and mentoring on how to reduce their carbon footprint over a six-month period. A statistically significant reduction in carbon emissions was achieved. Each participant achieved a mean reduction in their carbon footprint of 2.0 tonnes of CO₂e/year. The largest reductions were achieved in the areas of shopping and home energy. In addition, it helped to foster community spirit. Based on the experience gained from implementing this approach, a cost-effective model of community engagement is proposed.     

Carotenoid-dependent coloration of male American kestrels predicts ability to reduce parasitic infections

The signaling function of sexually selected traits, such as carotenoid-dependent avian plumage coloration, has received a great deal of recent attention especially with respect to parasitism and immunocompetence. We argue that parasite-mediated models of sexual selection may have an implicit temporal component that many researchers have ignored. For example, previous studies have demonstrated that carotenoid-dependent traits can signal past parasite exposure, current levels of parasitism, or the ability of individuals to manage parasitic infections in the future. We examined repeated measures of carotenoid-dependent skin color and blood parasitism in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) to distinguish whether coloration might signal current parasitism or the potential to deal with infections in the future. We found no evidence that coloration was related to current levels of parasitism in either sex. However, coloration of males significantly predicted their response to parasitism; males with bright orange coloration during prelaying, when mate choice is occurring, were more likely than dull yellow males to reduce their levels of infection by the time incubation began. Coloration during prelaying may advertise a male’s health later in the breeding season. For kestrels, the ability to predict future health would be highly beneficial given the male’s role in providing food to his mate and offspring. Coloration of females was not a significant predictor of parasitism in the future, and we provide several possible explanations for this result.     

Empirical modeling of atmospheric deposition in mountainous landscapes.

Atmospheric deposition has long been recognized as an important source of pollutants and nutrients to ecosystems. The need for reliable, spatially explicit estimates of total atmospheric deposition (wet + dry + cloud) is central, not only to air pollution effects researchers, but also for calculation of input-output budgets, and to decision makers faced with the challenge of assessing the efficacy of policy initiatives related to deposition. Although atmospheric deposition continues to represent a critical environmental and scientific issue, current estimates of total deposition have large uncertainties, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes such as montane regions. We developed an empirical modeling approach that predicts total deposition as a function of landscape features. We measured indices of total deposition to the landscapes of Acadia (121 km2) and Great Smoky Mountains (2074 km2) National Parks (USA). Using approximately 300-400 point measurements and corresponding landscape variables at each park, we constructed a statistical (general linear) model relating the deposition index to landscape variables measured in the field. The deposition indices ranged over an order of magnitude, and in response to vegetation type and elevation, which together explained approximately 40% of the variation in deposition. Then, using the independent landscape variables available in GIS data layers, we created a GIS-relevant statistical nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition model (LandMod). We applied this model to create park-wide maps of total deposition that were scaled to wet and dry deposition data from the closest national network monitoring stations. The resultant deposition maps showed high spatial heterogeneity and a four- to sixfold variation in "hot spots" and "cold spots" of N and S deposition ranging from 3 to 31 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1) and from 5 to 42 kg S x ha(-1) x yr(-1) across these park landscapes. Area-weighted deposition was found to be up to 70% greater than NADP plus CASTNET monitoring-station estimates together. Model-validation results suggest that the model slightly overestimates deposition for deciduous and coniferous forests at low elevation and underestimates deposition for high-elevation coniferous forests. The spatially explicit deposition estimates derived from LandMod are an improvement over what is currently available. Future research should test LandMod in other mountainous environments and refine it to account for (currently) unexplained variation in deposition.