FLOOD INUNDATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Panchromatic black and white, color, and color infrared photographs and thermal infrared imagery are compared for a capability to show flood boundaries. In open agricultural and urban areas, these boundaries are easily delineated on all types of am. Boundaries are more difficult to see in wooded areas. In March, hardwood trees are dormant, but black and white photographs and color photographs show only the tops of these trees. Color infrared photographs in January and March have a distinctive color or tone in inundated woods; the limit of this tone is the flood boundary. Daytime thermal infrared imagery in March shows that inundated woods are cooler than dry land but warmer than open water. After about April 1, both color infrared photography and thermal infrared imagery show only the top of the tree canopy and do not reflect underlying flood water. Inundated areas can be delineated easily on ERTS satellite imagery from December through March. On imagery from May 4–5, 1973, however, most inundation boundaries had to be drawn as dashed lines; the tree canopy obscures flood waters in wooded areas. Despite this problem, the results of mapping flood boundaries on May imagery are believed to be reasonable for the scale of the imagery.     

REGION OF INFLUENCE REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE 50-YEAR FLOOD AT UNGAGED SITES1

ABSTRACT: Five methods of developing regional regression models to estimate flood characteristics at ungaged sites in Arkansas are examined. The methods differ in the manner in which the State is divided into subregions. Each successive method (A to E) is computationally more complex than the previous method. Method A makes no subdivision. Methods B and C define two and four geographic subregions, respectively. Method D uses cluster/discriminant analysis to define subregions on the basis of similarities in watershed characteristics. Method E, the new region of influence method, defines a unique subregion for each ungaged site. Split-sample results indicate that, in terms of root-mean-square error, method E (38 percent error) is best. Methods C and D (42 and 41 percent error) were in a virtual tie for second, and methods B (44 percent error) and A (49 percent error) were fourth and fifth best.     

Simulating the Impacts of Irrigation Levels on Soybean Production in Texas High Plains to Manage Diminishing Groundwater Levels

There is an increasing need to strategize and plan irrigation systems under varied climatic conditions to support efficient irrigation practices while maintaining and improving the sustainability of groundwater systems. This study was undertaken to simulate the growth and production of soybean [Glycine max (L.)] under different irrigation scenarios. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and validate the CROPGRO‐Soybean model under Texas High Plains’ (THP) climatic conditions and to apply the calibrated model to simulate the impacts of different irrigation levels and triggers on soybean production. The methodology involved combining short‐term experimental data with long‐term historical weather data (1951–2012), and use of mechanistic crop growth simulation algorithms to determine optimum irrigation management strategies. Irrigation was scheduled based on five different plant extractable water levels (irrigation threshold [ITHR]) set at 20%, 35%, 50%, 65%, and 80%. The calibrated model was able to satisfactorily reproduce measured leaf area index, biomass, and evapotranspiration for soybean, indicating it can be used for investigating different strategies for irrigating soybean in the THP. Calculations of crop water productivity for biomass and yield along with irrigation water use efficiency indicated soybean can be irrigated at ITHR set at 50% or 65% with minimal yield loss as compared to 80% ITHR, thus conserving water and contributing toward lower groundwater withdrawals. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Adaptation to climate change in the Northeast United States: opportunities, processes, constraints

Scientific evidence accumulating over the past decade documents that climate change impacts are already being experienced in the US Northeast. Policy-makers and resource managers must now prepare for the impacts from climate change and support implementing such plans on the ground. In this paper we argue that climate change challenges the region to maintain its economic viability, but also holds some opportunities that may enhance economic development, human well-being, and social justice. To face these challenges and seize these opportunities effectively we must better understand adaptation capacities, opportunities and constraints, the social processes of adaptation, approaches for engaging critical players and the broader public in informed debate, decision-making, and conscious interventions in the adaptation process. This paper offers a preliminary qualitative assessment, in which we emphasize the need for (1) assessing the feasibility and side effects of technological adaptation options, (2) increasing available resources and improving equitable access to them, (3) increasing institutional flexibility, fit, cooperation and decision-making authority, (4) using and enhancing human and social capital, (5) improving access to insurance and other risk-spreading mechanisms, and (6) linking scientific information more effectively to decision-makers while engaging the public. Throughout, we explore these issues through illustrative sectoral examples. We conclude with a number of principles that may guide the preparation of future adaptation plans for the Northeast.     

Behavioral and life-history components of division of labor in honey bees (Apis mellifera L.)

Variability exists among worker honey bees for components of division of labor. These components are of two types, those that affect foraging behavior and those that affect life-history characteristics of workers. Variable foraging behavior components are: the probability that foraging workers collect (1) pollen only; (2) nectar only; and (3) pollen and nectar on the same trip. Life history components are: (1) the age the workers initiate foraging behavior; (2) the length of the foraging life of a worker; and (3) worker length of life. We show how these components may interact to change the social organization of honey bee colonies and the lifetime foraging productivity of individual workers. Selection acting on foraging behavior components may result in changes in the proportion of workers collecting pollen and nectar. Selection acting on life-history components may affect the size of the foraging population and the distribution of workers between within nest and foraging activities. We suggest that these components define possible sociogenic pathways through which colony-level natural selection can change social organization. These pathways may be analogous to developmental pathways in the morphogenesis of individual organisms because small changes in behavioral or life history components of individual workers may lead to major changes in the organizational structure of colonies. Correspondence to: R.E. Page, Jr.     

The use of Doppler-shifted echoes as a flutter detection and clutter rejection system: the echolocation and feeding behavior of Hipposideros ruber (Chiroptera: Hipposideridae)

Summary Hipposideros ruber use CF/FM echolocation calls to detect the wing flutter of their insect prey. Fluttering prey were detected whether the insects were flying or sitting on a surface, and prey in either situation were captured with equal success (approximately 40% of capture attempts). Stationary prey were ignored. The bats did not use visual cues or the sounds of wing flutter to locate their prey. Wing flutter detection suggests that H. ruber exploit the Doppler-shifted information in echoes of their echolocation calls. These bats fed primarily upon moths, usually those of between 10 and 25 mm wingchord, although moths of less than 5 mm and greater than 40 mm wingchord were also attacked and captured. They showed no evidence of selecting moths on the basis of species or other taxonomic distinction, and occasionaly captured other insects.     

Contaminant levels in colonial waterbirds from Green Bay and Lake Michigan, 1975–80

Residues of organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), polychlorinated styrenes (PCSs), and mercury were measured in the eggs of 10 species of colonial waterbirds nesting in areas around Green Bay or Lake Michigan from 1975 to 1980. Residues also were measured in the carcasses and brains of black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax). The highest residues were of PCBs, DDE, mercury, and dieldrin; for some species, levels of these chemicals possibly were high enough to have caused reproductive effects. Other organochlorine pesticides were found at low levels. Only trace amounts of PCSs and PBBs were found. Eggs of herring gulls (Larus argentatus) collected in 1977 from an island in Lake Michigan contained an average of 100 ppm PCBs and 33 ppm DDE; this was the most-contaminated species. Cattle egrets (Bubulcus ibis), the only bird that is not a fish eater, contained only small quantities of DDE and mercury.     

Cause-effect relationships in analytical surveys: an illustration of statistical issues

Establishing cause-effect is critical in the field of natural resources where one may want to know the impact of management practices, wildfires, drought, etc. on water quality and quantity, wildlife, growth and survival of desirable trees for timber production, etc. Yet, key obstacles exist when trying to establish cause-effect in such contexts. Issues involved with identifying a causal hypothesis, and conditions needed to estimate a causal effect or to establish cause-effect are considered. Ideally one conducts an experiment and follows with a survey, or vice versa. In an experiment, the population of inference may be quite limited and in surveys, the probability distribution of treatment assignments is generally unknown and, if not accounted for, can cause serious errors when estimating causal effects. The latter is illustrated in simulation experiments of artificially generated forest populations using annual plot mortality as the response, drought as the cause, and age as a covariate that is correlated with mortality. We also consider the role of a vague unobservable covariate such as `drought susceptibility'. Recommendations are made designed to maximize the possibility of identifying cause-effect relationships in large-scale natural resources surveys.     

The OECD Validation Program of the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay for the Identification of In Vitro Inhibitors and Inducers of Testosterone and Estradiol Production. Phase 2: Inter-Laboratory Pre-Validation Studies (8 pp)

Background, Goals and Scope In response to concerns that have been raised about chemical substances that may alter the function of endocrine systems and result in adverse effects on human health, an OECD initiative was undertaken to develop and validate in vitro and in vivo assays to identify chemicals that may interfere with endocrine systems of vertebrates. Here we report on studies that were conducted to develop and standardize a cell-based screening assay using the H295R cell line to prioritize chemicals that may act on steroidogenic processes in humans and wildlife. These studies are currently ongoing as part of the ‘Special Activity on the Testing and Assessment of Endocrine Disruptors’ within the OECD Test Guidelines Program to review, develop, standardize, and validate a number of in vitro and in vivo toxicological assays for testing and assessment of chemicals concerning their potential to interact with the endocrine system of vertebrates. Study Design Six laboratories from five countries participated in the pre-validation studies. Each laboratory tested the effects of three model chemicals on the production of testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2) using the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay. Chemicals tested were well described inducers or inhibitors of steroidogenic pathways (forskolin, prochloraz and fadrozole). All experiments were conducted in 24 well plates following standard protocols. Six different doses per compound were analyzed in triplicate per plate. A quality control (QC) plate was run in conjunction with the chemical exposure plate to account for inter-assay variation. Each chemical exposure was conducted two or three times. Results All laboratories successfully detected increases and/or decreases in hormone production by H295R cells after exposure to the different model compounds and there was good agreement in the pattern of response for all groups. Forskolin increased both T and E2 while fadrozole and prochloraz decreased production of both hormones. All chemicals affected hormone production in a dose-dependent manner with the exception of fadrozole which caused maximum inhibition of E2 at the two least concentrations tested. Some inter-laboratory differences were noted in the alteration of hormone production measured in chemically exposed cells. However, with the exception of the production of T measured at one laboratory in cells exposed to forskolin, the EC₅₀s calculated were comparable (coefficients of variation 34–49%) for all hormones. Discussion and Perspectives The results indicated that the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay protocol was robust, transferable and reproducible among all laboratories. However, in several instances that were primarily related to one laboratory there were unexplained minor uncertainties related to the inter-laboratory hormone production variation. Based on the findings from this Phase 2 prevalidation study, the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay protocol is currently being refined. The next phase of the OECD validation program will test the refined protocol among the same group of laboratories using an extended set of chemicals (∼30) that will include positive and negative chemical controls as well as a broad spectrum of different potential inducers and inhibitors of steroidogenic pathways. Submission Editor: Dr. Carsten Brühl (bruehl@uni-landau.de)