Near term mitigation policy for global change under uncertainty: Minimizing the expected cost of meeting unknown concentration thresholds

An aggregate integrated assessment model is used to investigate the relative merits of hedging over the near term against the chance that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will be limited as a matter of global policy. Hedging strategies are evaluated given near term uncertainty about the targeted level of limited concentrationsand the trajectory of future carbon emissions. All uncertainty is resolved in the year 2020, and strategies that minimize the expected discounted value of the long term cost of abatement, including the extra cost of adjusting downstream to meet unexpected concentration limits along unanticipated emission trajectories, are identified. Even with uncertainties that span current wisdom on emission futures and restriction thresholds that run from 550 ppm through 850 ppm, the results offer support for at most modest abatement response over the next several decades to the threat of global change.     

VALIDATION OF A BRIEF SCREENING MEASURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMICAL SENSITIVITY: THE CHEMICAL ODOR INTOLERANCE INDEX

The development and validation of a brief self-report screening measure of environmental chemical sensitivity, the Chemical Odor Intolerance Index (CII), is described. Subjects included 1734 college students, 192 older adults, and 38 chemically intolerant and multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS) patients. The results of the studies demonstrate that the CII has strong internal stability (Cronbach's alpha ranging from 0.80 to 0.92 across samples), and evidence of factorial, group, convergent, and discriminant validity is reported across diverse samples. In future research, the CII will permit the quantification of self-reported illness from low levels of environmental chemicals as a continuous rather than dichotomous variable. Consequently, the CII will facilitate the ability to compare and standardize subject selection criteria in both preclinical and clinical (i.e. MCS) populations.     

The effects of pathway configuration, landmarks and stress on environmental cognition

The results of this study indicate that manipulations of the pathway grid configuration and landmark placement in a setting cause changes in environmental knowledge. These experimental manipulations were accomplished using a realistic, dynamic simulation technique at the Berkeley Environmental Simulation Laboratory. Measures of environmental knowledge include: memory for incidental information along the simulated urban route, accuracy of route maps, relocation memory for scenes along the route, and questionnaire measures. Data are also presented showing both positive and negative effects of stress from noise on the processes of environmental cognition.     

Substitution and the control of pollution : A comparison of effluent charges and quantity standards under uncertainty

Single-valued price and quantity controls of a polluting activity are compared under uncertainty. The ability to substitute other inputs for the pollutant in the production of a positively valued final good, and the usual discrepancy between the amount of pollution actually consumed and the amount emitted are carefully incorporated. The first is found to influence the degree to which cost fluctuation is reflected in the output of the final good. The second concern alters the region of the benefit function into which output is inserted. Both change the welfare losses associated with random fluctuation in the costs of reducing pollution.     

The Effect of Altered Habitat on Nitrogen Metabolism in Some Free-Living and Symbiotic Relationships Involving Nitrogen Fixing Organisms

Citrulline, one of the forms in which fixed nitrogen is assimilated in free-living blue-green algae and additionally in the blue-green algae/cycad symbiosis in Macrozamia, is similarly assimilated in the nitrogen fixing root nodules of Alnus glutinosa. By investigating the localisation of ornithine carbamoyl transferase in both cases it has been shown that in these symbiotic systems the ornithine carbamoyl transferase is only active in host tissue. This suggests that the host exerts an influence on the assimilation of fixed nitrogen in the microsymbiont resulting in the blocking of the enzyme trans-carbamylase with the subsequent excretion of the fixed nitrogen as ammonia to the host for further assimilation. This is discussed in the light of work on nitrogen metabolism in other symbiotic relationships involving nitrogen fixing organisms, where the effect of altering the habitat of the micro-organism has in fact resulted in a change in its metabolism.     

Economic valuation of marsh areas for marine production processes

The relationship of natural marsh-estuarine systems to the economic productivity of marine systems is not well understood, at least in any quantitative sense. An approach is developed for relating blue crab economic productivity on Florida's Gulf Coast to marsh availability in the area. Previous efforts have not always applied economic concepts appropriately in attempts at such quantification. The marginal value productivity of marsh is shown to vary with alternative levels of marsh and effort in the fishery. The interaction and subsequent interdependence is shown to be statistically significant. Data availability on marginal response to marsh changes poses a severe obstacle to further progress.     

Uptake of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in salt marsh plants Spartina alterniflora grown in contaminated sediments

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations were measured in Spartina alterniflora plants grown in pots of contaminated sediment, plants grown in native sediment at a marsh contaminated with up to 900 microg/g total PAHs, and from plants grown in uncontaminated control sediment. The roots and leaves of the plants were separated, cleaned, and analyzed for PAHs. PAH compounds were detected at up to 43 microg/g dry weight in the root tissue of plants grown in pots of contaminated soil. PAH compounds were detected at up to 0.2 microg/g in the leaves of plants grown in pots of contaminated soil. Concentrations less than 0.004 microg/g were detected in the leaves of plants grown at a reference site. Root concentration factor (RCF) values ranged from 0.009 to 0.97 in the potted plants, and from 0.004 to 0.31 at the contaminated marsh site. Stem concentration factor (SCF) values ranged from 0.00004 to 0.03 in the potted plants and 0.0002 to 0.04 at the contaminated marsh. No correlation was found between the RCF value and PAH compound or chemical properties such as logKOW. SCF values were higher for the lighter PAHs in the potted plants, but not in the plants collected from the contaminated marsh. PAH concentrations in the roots of the potted plants are strongly correlated with soil concentrations, but there is less correlation for the roots grown in natural sediments. Additional plants were grown directly in PAH-contaminated water and analyzed for alkylated PAH homologs. No difference was found in leaf PAH concentrations between plants grown in contaminated water and control plants.