Unemployment effects of climate policy

This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions.The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated.     

Prevalence and clinical significance of anticardiolipin antibodies in pregnancies complicated by parvovirus B19 infection

Anticardiolipin antibodies were measured in 60 pregnant women with acute parvovirus B19 infection. Test results for eight (13.3 per cent) women were positive for anticardiolipin antibody. Six of these eight women became negative later, yielding a prevalence of anticardiolipin antibodies of 3.3 per cent (2/60) 6 months after acute parvovirus B19 infection. Anticardiolipin antibody positivity was not associated with an increased risk of abortion, fetal death, or maternal complications. This study suggests that there is an elevated frequency of anticardiolipin antibodies in pregnant women with acute parvovirus B19, probably representing an epiphenomenon. However, this is not associated with an adverse maternal or perinatal outcome.     

A fetus with a parvovirus B19 infection and congenital anomalies

A fetus with multiple structural defects was seen at prenatal ultrasound examination. After termination of the pregnancy a bilateral cleft lip, alveolus, and palate; micrognathia; and webbed joints were seen. Fetal tissues showed indications of infection, intranuclear inclusion bodies, chronic stress, haemolysis, arterial wall damage, and profuse haemorrhage. Parvovirus B19 DNA was detected in fetal tissues by dot hybridization after polymerase chain reaction. The possibility of parvovirus B19 infection leading to congenital malformations is discussed.     

First-trimester diagnosis of duodenal stenosis associated with oesophageal atresia

Duodenal stenosis associated with oesophageal atresia was diagnosed by ultrasound at 12 weeks' gestation. The diagnosis was made by recognition of a double bubble sign which was more pronounced when a vaginal transducer was used. Post-abortion autopsy confirmed the diagnosis. Oesophageal and duodenal obstruction in this case had no effect on the amount of amniotic fluid or the alpha-fetoprotein concentration since swallowing and subsequent utilization of amniotic fluid do not occur before 12 weeks of gestation.     

Influence of Methodology and Assumptions on Reported National Carbon Flux Inventories: An Illustration from the Canadian Forest Sector

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a netemission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.     

Prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis after transabdominal chorionic villus sampling in the first trimester

First trimester prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis was attempted in 350 pregnancies after trans-abdominal chorionic villus sampling. The cytogenetic investigation was performed using both a short-term method (24 h incubation) and cell culture. Adequate samples were obtained in 99·1 per cent and in all these cases the fetal karyotype was established. A chromosome abnormality was found in 2·0 per cent of cases. A discrepancy between the karyotype obtained after 24 h incubation and the karyotype in cell culture was observed in 2·3 per cent. Maternal cell contamination in the cultures was confirmed in 13 of 181 cases where the 24 h incubation revealed a male karyotype. Studies of culture morphology showed that colonies of convoluted cells may serve as a marker for contamination with maternal cells in culture. For the present, we recommend using a short-term method as well as cell culture for cytogenetic investigation until the problems with karyotype discrepancy and maternal cell contamination have been further clarified.