INCORPORATING NATURAL VARIABILITY,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK INTO WATER QUALITY EVALUATIONS USING DURATION CURVES1

ABSTRACT: Quantifying natural variability, uncertainty, and risk with minimal data is one of the greatest challenges facing those engaged in water quality evaluations, such as development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL), because of regulatory, natural, and analytical constraints. Quantification of uncertainty and variability in natural systems is illustrated using duration curves (DCs), plots that illustrate the percent of time that a particular flow rate (FDC), concentration (CDC), or load rate (LDC; “TMDL”) is exceeded, and are constructed using simple derived distributions. Duration curves require different construction methods and interpretations, depending on whether there is a statistically significant correlation between concentration (C) and flow (Q), and on the sign of the C‐Q regression slope (positive or negative). Flow DCs computed from annual runoff data vary compared with an FDC developed using all data. Percent exceedance for DCs can correspond to risk; however, DCs are not composed of independent quantities. Confidence intervals of data about a regression line can be used to develop confidence limits for the CDC and LDC. An alternate expression to a fixed TMDL is suggested as the risk of a load rate being exceeded and lying between confidence limits. Averages over partial ranges of DCs are also suggested as an alternative expression of TMDLs. DCs can be used to quantify watershed response in terms of changes in exceedances, concentrations, and load rates after implementation of best management practices.     

ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS AND POLLUTION EFFECTS IN AN OZARK CAVE STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Subterranean ecosystems harbor globally rare fauna and important water resources, but ecological processes are poorly understood and are threatened by anthropogenic stresses. Ecosystem analyses were conducted from 1997 to 2000 in Cave Springs Cave, Arkansas, situated in a region of intensive land use, to determine the degree of habitat degradation and viability of endangered fauna. Organic matter budgeting quantified energy flux and documented the dominant input as dissolved organic matter and not gray bat guano (Myotis grisescens). Carbon/nitrogen stable isotope analyses described a trophic web of Ozark cavefish (Amblyopsis rosae) that primarily consumed cave isopods (Caecidotea stiladactyla), which in turn appeared to consume benthic matter originating from a complex mixture of soil, leaf litter, and anthropogenic wastes. Septic leachate, sewage sludge, and cow manure were suspected to augment the food web and were implicated in environmental degradation. Water, sediment, and animal tissue analyses detected excess nutrients, fecal bacteria, and toxic concentrations of metals. Community assemblage may have been altered: sensitive species‐grotto salamanders (Typhlotriton spelaeus) and stygobro‐mid amphipods—were not detected, while more resilient isopods flourished. Reduction of septic and agricultural waste inputs may be necessary to restore ecosystem dynamics in this cave ecosystem to its former undisturbed condition.     

高速铁路轨道的安全管理

高速铁路的轨道结构要求具有高平顺性。为使轨道结构的平顺性持久、稳定 ,需要在设计、施工、管理各个环节进行严格控制。国外高速铁路的运营经验表明 ,轨道的安全管理在实现高速行车时 ,起着巨大的技术保障作用。笔者在分析高速铁路轨道结构的平顺性特征基础上 ,讨论了轨道不平顺管理、列车振动加速度管理、钢轨踏面及伤损管理、无缝线路管理等方面的问题 ,并提出了改进新思路 ,即应建立异常情况下的处理机制。     

避雷针保护范围验算数学模型的确定

主要针对现有国家标准中避雷针保护范围确定的问题 ,即多是给予形状上的描述 ,而在实际设计或验算过程中通常计算量很大且重复工作多 ,笔者为应对上述的问题 ,提出了新的思路和新方法 ,建立了避雷针保护范围计算的数学模型 ,且编制了相应软件。     

安全的内涵和外延

通过对安全一词已有的各种描述的分析 ,运用科学学、哲学等方法 ,更广泛地探讨安全的本质 ,即从安全子系统———安全文化、安全科学、安全技术、安全经济、安全管理、安全伦理等去描述安全的内涵 ,试图消除采用简单词语定义安全的想法 ,由此引伸出安全的外延 ,从而更形象、更具体地理解和认识安全。     

基于虚拟现实技术的事故分析方法

阐述了虚拟现实技术在民航安全方面的应用前景和重要意义 ,并应用于飞行事故分析。通过建立事故模型 ,笔者对飞行中相对应的人—机关系进行描述。这些关系对事故原因分析是十分重要的。在这个框架下实现了三维模型动画显示 ,并利用计算机多媒体技术 ,实现真实感图形动态显示和音效合成 ,虚拟环境和立体显示 ,展现亲历事故的真实效果     

钢筋混凝土桥墩抗震性能的试验研究之二 试验结果分析与结论

笔者针对前文所述试验中出现的破坏现象和试验数据 ,通过统计分析 ,研究了该类桥墩的力—位移关系、延性变形能力、抗力特性、滞回模式、耗能指标、损伤破坏模式 ,以及配筋率、箍筋布置、剪跨比等结构参量对该类参数的影响 ,进而为实际铁路桥梁的延性抗震设计提供了必要的试验依据     

飞机座舱工效多级模糊评价研究

主要从系统工程角度 ,对飞机座舱工效多级模糊评价方法中的评价因素集、因素权重值、模糊评价矩阵以及综合评价方法等的确定 ,进行了初步探索。在此基础上 ,构造了模糊评价矩阵、因素权重值数据库流程图 ,为飞机座舱工效的总体评价及其数据库系统的建立奠定了基础。最后 ,简单讨论了现存的问题及今后进一步的研究方向     

爆炸冲击波作用下靶板的塑性大变形响应研究

对四边约束方形靶板 ,在爆炸冲击波作用下的塑性大变形响应情况 ,进行了理论分析与试验研究。运用能量守恒的方法 ,同时考虑试验过程中靶板的边界约束条件 ,得到了四边约束方形靶板在爆炸冲击波作用下发生塑性大变形时挠度的半经验公式。理论计算与试验结果吻合性较好 ,这种方法可应用于板结构在爆炸冲击波作用下的毁伤或防护方面的工程预测     

论动态安全评价

指出了静态安全评价存在的问题 ,提出了动态安全评价的概念、思路、方法和步骤 ,给出了动态的组合危险值、工程量危险值、事故损失率和安全指数的表达式。动态安全评价可以克服静态安全评价的不足 ,还能发挥安全评价对风险预测、事故预防 ,提高安全管理水平的重要作用。