Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Soil functional responses to excess nitrogen inputs at global scale

There is little evidence that nitrogen (N) cycling in the highly weathered, low-phosphorus (P), acidic soils found in Southern Hemisphere continents will differ greatly from that in North America and Europe. Evidence from the 'south' shows: the similarity in forms and temporal patterns in losses of N from different land uses; that the C:N ratios of the forest floor/litter layer from different continents are strongly predictive of a range of processes on a global scale; that generalizations based on Northern Hemisphere experience of the impact of N additions to 'P-limited' ecosystems are likely to fail for southern ecosystems where anatomical and physiological adaptation of native plants to low-P soils makes questionable the concept of 'P-limitation'; that the greatest threats in the 'south' are probably changes in land use that may greatly increase N inputs and turnover; that localized increases in N inputs produce similar effects to those seen in the 'north'.     

Anomalous transport of colloids and solutes in a shear zone

Transport experiments with colloids and radionuclides in a shear zone were conducted during the Colloid and Radionuclide Retardation experiment (CRR) at Nagra's Grimsel Test Site. Breakthrough curves of bentonite colloids and uranine, a non-sorbing solute, were measured in an asymmetric dipole flow field. The colloid breakthrough is earlier than that of uranine. Both breakthrough curves show anomalously long late time tails and the slope of the late time tails for the colloids is slightly higher. Anomalous late time tails are commonly associated with matrix diffusion processes; the diffusive interaction of solutes transported in open channels with the adjacent porous rock matrix or zones of stagnant water. The breakthrough curves for different colloid size classes are very similar and show no signs of fractionation due to their (size-dependent) diffusivity. It is proposed that tailing of the colloids is mainly caused by the structure of the flow field and that for the colloid transport, matrix diffusion is of minor importance. This has consequences for the interpretation of the uranine breakthrough. Comparisons of experimental results with numerical studies and with the evaluation of the colloid breakthrough with continuous time random theory imply that the tailing in the conservative solute breakthrough in this shear zone is not only caused by matrix diffusion. Part of the tailing can be attributed to advective transport in fracture networks and advection in low velocity regions. Models based on the advection-dispersion equation and matrix diffusion do not properly describe the temporal and spatial evolution of colloid and solute transport in such systems with a consistent set of parameters.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.