Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

Individual Accuracy in Estimating Plume Opacity

The accuracy of individuals to estimate the opacity of black and white plumes in Visible Emission Training Programs is analyzed. The analysis includes new students and individuals returning for recertification. Following a set of drills, students generally have accuracy only slightly lower than those achieving certification. The accuracy of individuals during their initial recertification attempt is virtually the same as the accuracy six months earlier when they passed the certification test. The most important skill to reading opacity is an unshakable mental impression of plumes having 25, 50 and 75 percent opacity.     

Transformations,Lifetimes, and Sources of NO2, HONO,and HNO3 in Indoor Environments

Recent research has demonstrated that nitrogen oxides are transformed to nitrogen acids in indoor environments, and that significant concentrations of nitrous acid are present in indoor air. The purpose of the study reported in this paper has been to investigate the sources, chemical transformations and lifetimes of nitrogen oxides and nitrogen acids under the conditions existing in buildings. An unoccupied single family residence was instrumented for monitoring of NO, NO₂, NO_y, MONO, HNO₃, CO, temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate. For some experiments, NO₂ and HONO were injected into the house to determine their removal rates and lifetimes. Other experiments investigated the emissions and transformations of nitrogen species from unvented natural gas appliances. We determined that HONO is formed by both direct emissions from combustion processes and reaction of NO₂ with surfaces present indoors. Equilibrium considerations influence the relative contributions of these two sources to the indoor burden of HONO. We determined that the lifetimes of trace nitrogen species varied in the order NO ~ HONO > NO₂ >HNO₃. The lifetimes with respect to reactive processes are on the order of hours for NO and HONO, about an hour for NO₂, and 30 minutes or less for HNO3. The rapid removal of NO₂ and long lifetime of HONO suggest that HONO may represent a significant fraction of the oxidized nitrogen burden in indoor air.     

The vertical integration of Lisbon and sustainable development strategies across the EU: How different governance architectures shape the European coherence of policy documents

In Europe, sustainable development (SD) is pursued with not one but two overarching strategies, i.e., the so-called Lisbon and SD strategies. While the Lisbon Strategy is a genuinely European response to global economic and social pressures, SD strategies are national efforts corresponding with international (mainly United Nations) guidance to better coordinate and integrate economic, social and, in particular, environmental policies. The present paper explores the vertical coordination and coherence of the two pan-European strategies. After reviewing the international background of SD strategies and the EU origins of the Lisbon strategy, the paper characterizes and compares the governance architectures of the two strategies. With a solid background on how vertical policy integration functions in the two processes, the paper then shows how this affects the coherence of respective strategy structures and monitoring indicators. Based on an extensive empirical stocktaking study of the objectives and indicators in Lisbon and SD strategies across Europe it is shown that, despite the stronger European coordination through the Open Method of Coordination, the Lisbon process entailed only slightly more coherent national strategies than international guidance did in the context of SD strategies. Thus, the paper concludes that the influence international organizations such as the UN and the OECD have on national policy-making must not be underestimated.     

Nickel Speciation of Residual Oil Fly Ash and Ambient Particulate Matter Using X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

ABSTRACT

The chemical speciation of Ni in fly ash produced from ~0.85 wt % S residual (no. 6 fuel) oils in laboratory (7 kW)- and utility (400 MW)-scale combustion systems was investigated using X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and acetate extraction [1 M NaOAc-0.5 M HOAc (pH 5) at 25 °C]-anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV). XAFS was also used to determine the Ni speciation of ambient particulate matter (PM) sampled near the 400-MW system. Based on XAFS analyses of bulk fly ash and their corresponding acetate extraction residue, it is estimated that >99% of the total Ni (0.38 wt %) in the experimentally produced fly ash occurs as NiSO₄-xH₂O, whereas >95% of the total Ni (1.70 and 2.25 wt %) in two fly ash samples from the 400-MW system occurs as NiSO₄-xH₂O and Ni-bearing spinel, possibly NiFe₂O₄. Spinel was also detected using XRD. Acetate extracts most of the NiSO₄-xH₂O and concentrates insoluble NiFe₂O₄ in extraction residue. Similar to fly ash, ambient PM contains NiSO₄-xH₂O and NiFe₂O₄;

however, the proportion of NiSO₄-xH₂O relative to NiFe₂O₄ is much greater in the PM. Results from this and previous investigations indicate that residual oil ash produced in the 7-kW combustion system lack insoluble Ni (e.g., NiFe₂O₄) but are enriched in soluble NiSO₄-xH₂O relative to fly ash from utility-scale systems. This difference in Ni speciation is most likely related to the lack of additive [e.g., Mg(OH)₂] injection and residence time in the 7-kW combustion system.     

Decomposition analysis of the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the motor vehicle collision–related mortality rate from 1994 to 2015

Abstract

Objective: Though the mortality rate for motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) has been decreasing since the 1960s with the advent of the first federal seat belt laws in 1968, MVC remains a leading cause of death for individuals aged 1 to 44 years. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of frontal (FABs) and side airbags (SABs) and electronic stability control (ESC) on the components of the MVC mortality rate.

Methods: The MVC mortality rate from 1994 to 2015 was separated into its components of exposure of vehicles, exposure of travel, collision density, injury incidence, and case fatality rate. Year was categorized on the availability of safety technology in vehicles: 1994–1997 (first-generation FABs mandated), 1998–2001 (sled-certified, second-generation FABs mandated), 2002–2006 (increasing prevalence of SABs and ESC), 2007–2011 (advanced airbags mandated), and 2012–2015 (ESC mandated, SAB in over 90% of vehicles, introduction of advanced safety systems). Relative contributions (RCs) of the components to changes in the MVC-related mortality rate were calculated as the absolute value of the component’s beta coefficient divided by the sum of the absolute values of all components’ beta coefficients. Negative binomial regression–estimated rate ratios (RRs) for the changes in the rate of each component by year category compared to the prior year category.

Results: Significant decreases in the MVC mortality rate were observed for 2007–2011 and 2012–2015. The decrease in 2007–2011 was due in most part to an 18% decrease in the injury incidence (RR?=?0.82, P?<?.0001, RC?=?63%), though there was a noted contribution by the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (RR?=?0.95, P?<?.0001, RC?=?15%). The continued decrease in mortality in 2012–2015 was due is most part to the 10% decreased case fatality rate (RR?=?0.90, P?<?.0001, RC?=?66%) because there was no significant change in the vehicle miles traveled and injury incidence.

Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the MVC-related mortality rate and can help direct prevention efforts. Through the study period, there was no meaningful contribution to decreases in the MVC-related mortality rate due to components related to exposure (i.e., vehicles per population and the rate of vehicle miles traveled), suggesting that prevention efforts at decreasing exposure prevalence would have little effect on the MVC-related mortality rate. Instead, prevention efforts should continue to focus on event-phase methods to decrease injury occurrence and mitigate injury severity during the collision.     

Economic water management decisions: trade-offs between conflicting objectives in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco watershed

Hydro-economic models can measure the economic effects of different reservoir operating rules, environmental restrictions, maintenance of ecosystems, technical constraints, institutional constraints, land use change, and climate change. To determine the optimal economic water allocation, for its main uses in the sub-middle of the São Francisco River Basin, a hydro-economic optimization model was developed and applied. Demand curves were used rather than fixed requirements for water resources. The results show that operation rules of reservoirs and institutional constraints, such as priorities for human consumption, have high impacts on costs and benefits of the principal economic uses in the study area. Especially, costs of environmental demands, like minimum ecological river flow, have high impacts on the water resource management. Scarcity costs of irrigation users associated with maintaining ecosystems and environmental constraints are particularly significant. The results from this study provide a better understanding of the water trade-offs for future policymaking and efficient water management. Policymaking for the water resources should consider the food-water-energy-environment nexus at a regional scale to minimize environmental and economic cost under water scarcity and land use change.     

Soil Conservation and Consumption Risk in a Model of Low-Income Agriculture

This paper investigates the influence of consumptionrisk on incentives for soil conservation. A dynamicmodel is developed to show how investments in soilconservation affect consumption risk on small farmsand how these risks influence incentives for soilconservation. Model predictions are compared withobserved patterns of soil conservation adoption in thePhilippines. Results show that on small farms the riskof consumption shortfall generates inefficientpatterns of soil conservation adoption. Observedadoption patterns reflect risk characteristics of thesoil conservation method, differences in risk exposureamong farms, and differences in farm size.     

Equivalency of a personal dust monitor to the current United States coal mine respirable dust sampler

The United States National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, through an informal partnership with industry, labor, and the United States Mine Safety and Health Administration, has developed and tested a new instrument known as the Personal Dust Monitor (PDM). The new dust monitor is an integral part of the cap lamp that coal miners normally carry to work and provides continuous information about the concentration of respirable coal mine dust within the breathing zone of that individual. Previous laboratory testing demonstrated that there is a 95% confidence that greater than 95% of individual PDM measurements fall within +/-25% of reference measurements. The work presented in this paper focuses on the relationship between the PDM and respirable dust concentrations currently measured by a coal mine dust personal sampler unit utilizing a 10 mm Dorr-Oliver nylon cyclone. The United Kingdom Mining Research Establishment instrument, used as the basis for coal mine respirable dust standards, had been designed specifically to match the United Kingdom British Medical Research Council (BMRC) criterion. The personal sampler is used with a 1.38 multiplier to convert readings to the BMRC criterion. A stratified random sampling design incorporating a proportionate allocation strategy was used to select a sample of mechanized mining units representative of all US underground coal mines. A sample of 180 mechanized mining units was chosen, representing approximately 20% of the mechanized mining units in production at the time the sample was selected. A total of 129 valid PDM/personal sampler dust sample sets were obtained. A weighted linear regression analysis of this data base shows that, in comparison with the personal sampler, the PDM requires a mass equivalency conversion multiplier of 1.05 [95% C.I.=(1.03, 1.08)] when the small intercept term is removed from the analysis. Removal of the intercept term results in a personal sampler-equivalent concentration increase of 2.9% at a PDM measurement of 2.0 mg m(-3).     

Effective Regulations with Little Effect? The Antecedents of the Perceptions of Environmental Officials on Enforcement Effectiveness in China

Enforcement gaps are an especially vexing problem in China due to pervasive "pro-growth" local government priorities, the weak administrative capacity of environmental agencies themselves, and relatively weak levels of societal support for a cleaner environment. This study seeks to examine this problem from the perspective of the local enforcement officials by empirically examining the relationships between these and other influences on their perceptions of enforcement effectiveness. Using samples of enforcement officials from the fast-growing cities of Chengdu, Dalian, and Guangzhou, this study finds that many of the more commonly cited problems related to regulatory enforcement were not as influential in accounting for variations in perceptions of enforcement effectiveness than the current literature might suggest. Moreover, this study also finds that the pattern of influences varies greatly across jurisdictions, with only the officials' belief in the legitimacy of the governments' policies being significant in all three samples. Strong influences on perceptions of enforcement effectiveness in two of the three samples include the environmental values of enforcement officials, their perceptions of organizational capacity for enforcement, and their assessment of government support for environmental protection. Although government support was found to be a strong predictor of enforcement effectiveness in two of the three samples, the influence of societal support had a somewhat mixed and more complicated effect. In addition, this study suggests that further improvements in enforcement effectiveness may be possible by cultivating or selecting enforcement officials with strong environmental values and beliefs in the legitimacy of the government's environmental policy to take charge of enforcement. Because it is generally accepted that local environmental protection bureaus are generally upgrading their organizational capacity for improvement as the result of increasing central government support for environmental protection and institutional restructuring, and because environmental awareness in China is growing, this study suggests that some incremental progress is likely in China's efforts to close the enforcement gap. Unfortunately, such improvements are likely to be masked by the steep trajectory of economic growth, the narrow scope of regulatory control (i.e., with scant attention paid to nonindustrial sources), and the migration of industrial pollution to rural areas.