Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations

We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) used in conventional modeling exercises. These classes are defined by common qualitative features, e.g., monotonicity, signs, etc. Using the QSIM-algorithm it is possible to derive the set of possible solutions of all ODEs in the class. By this one can formulate a common, qualitatively specified cause–effect scheme valid for all case studies. The scheme is validated by testing it against the actually observed histories in the study regions with respect to their reconstruction by the corresponding QDE. The method is outlined theoretically and exemplary applied to the problem of land-use changes due to smallholder agriculture in developing countries. It is shown that the seven case-studies used can be described by a single cause–effect scheme which thus constitutes a pattern of Global Change. As a generally valid prerequisite for sustainability of this kind of land-use the presence of wage labor is shown to represent a decisive factor. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Identification of soil contamination hotspots with veterinary antibiotics using heavy metal concentrations and leaching data—a field study in China

In regions with high livestock densities, the usage of antibiotics and metals for veterinary purposes or as growth promoters poses a risk in manured soils. We investigated to which degree the concentrations and depth distributions of Cu, Zn, Cr and As could be used as a tracer to discover contaminations with sulfonamides, tetracyclines and fluoroquinolones. Besides, we estimated the potential vertical translocation of antibiotics and compared the results to measured data. In the peri-urban region of Beijing, China, soil was sampled from agricultural fields and a dry riverbed contaminated by organic waste disposal. The antibiotic concentrations reached 110 μg kg^?1 sulfamethazine, 111 μg kg^?1 chlortetracycline and 62 μg kg^?1 enrofloxacin in the topsoil of agricultural fields. Intriguingly, total concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cr and As were smaller than 65, 130, 36 and 10 mg kg^?1 in surface soil, respectively, therewith fulfilling Chinese quality standards. Correlations between sulfamethazine concentrations and Cu or Zn suggest that in regions with high manure applications, one might use the frequently existing monitoring data for metals to identify potential pollution hotspots for antibiotics in topsoils. In the subsoils, we found sulfamethazine down to ≥2 m depth on agricultural sites and down to ≥4 m depth in the riverbed. As no translocation of metals was observed, subsoil antibiotic contamination could not be predicted from metal data. Nevertheless, sulfonamide stocks in the subsoil could be estimated with an accuracy of 35–200 % from fertilisation data and potential leaching rates. While this may not be sufficient for precise prediction of antibiotic exposure, it may very well be useful for the pre-identification of risk hotspots for subsequent in-depth assessment studies.     

Perfluorinated alkylated substances in vegetables collected in four European countries; occurrence and human exposure estimations

The human diet is recognised as one possible major exposure route to the overall perfluorinated alkylated substances (PFAS) burden of the human population, resulting directly from contamination of dietary food items, as well as migration of PFAS from food packaging or cookware. Most European countries carry out national monitoring programs (food basket studies) to monitor contamination with pollutants. Usually, for PFASs, non-coordinated approaches are used in Europe, since food basket studies are mainly carried out by national authorities following national requirements and questions, making comparisons between different countries difficult. A harmonised sampling campaign collecting similar food items in a uniform procedure enabling direct comparison between different regions in Europe was designed. We selected four countries (Belgium, Czech Republic, Italy and Norway), representing the four regions of Europe: West, East, South and North. In spring 2010 and 2011, 20 different types of vegetables were sampled in Belgium, Czech Republic, Italy and Norway. Perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs) were the main group of detected PFASs, with perfluorinated octanoic acid (PFOA) as the most abundant PFCA (with exception of samples from Czech Republic), followed by perfluorinated hexanoic acid and perfluorinated nonanoic acid. Dietary intake estimates for PFOA show only low human exposure due to vegetable consumption for adults and children, mostly governed by high intake of potatoes.     

A universal method to assess the potential of phosphorus loss from soil to aquatic ecosystems

Background, aim, and scope  

Phosphorus loss from terrestrial to the aquatic ecosystems contributes to eutrophication of surface waters. To maintain the world's vital freshwater ecosystems, the reduction of eutrophication is crucial. This needs the prevention of overfertilization of agricultural soils with phosphorus. However, the methods of risk assessment for the P loss potential from soils lack uniformity and are difficult for routine analysis. Therefore, the efficient detection of areas with a high risk of P loss requires a simple and universal soil test method that is cost effective and applicable in both industrialized and developing countries.     

Plant uptake of trace elements on a Swiss military shooting range: uptake pathways and land management implications

Over 400tons of Pb enters Swiss soils annually at some 2000 military shooting ranges (MSRs). We measured elements in the leaves of 10 plant species and associated rhizospheric soil on the stop butt of a disused MSR. The geometric mean concentrations of Pb, Sb, Cu, Ni in rhizospheric soils were 10,171mg/kg, 5067mg/kg, 4125mg/kg and 917mg/kg. Some species contained Pb, Cu and Ni, above concentrations (30mg/kg, 25mg/kg and 50mg/kg) shown to be toxic to livestock. Most contaminants in leaves resulted from surface deposition. However, at soil Pb concentrations >60,000mg/kg, Equisetum arvense and Tussilago farfara took up >1000mg/kg Pb into the leaves. These plants are not hyperaccumulators, having <100mg/kg Pb in leaves at lower soil concentrations. Removal of soil with more than 30,000 Pb, from which one could smelt this metal to offset remediation costs, followed by revegetation, would minimise dust and hence leaf-borne contaminants.     

Differential sorption behaviour of aromatic hydrocarbons on charcoals prepared at different temperatures from grass and wood

Naturally occurring charcoals are increasingly being recognized as effective sorbents for organic compounds. In this study we investigated the sorption of benzene and toluene in single-sorbate and bi-sorbate systems on different types of charcoals produced in laboratory, employing the batch sorption technique. Air dried plant materials from Phalaris grass (Phalaris tuberosa) and Red Gum wood (Eucalyptus camadulensis) were combusted under limited oxygen supply at 250 degrees C, 450 degrees C, and 850 degrees C. The resulting charcoals were characterized for their specific surface areas, total cation content, and pore size distributions (pore size distribution only for wood combusted at 450 degrees C and 850 degrees C). For the materials treated at 850 degrees C not only the surface area, microporosity, and total amount of sorbed sorbate increased markedly, but also the non-linearity of the sorption isotherm. The pore size distributions and surface areas as well as an indifferent sorption behaviour and competition effects for both sorbates indicated that pore filling mechanisms were the dominating processes governing the sorption on these microporous, high temperature treated materials. For the materials treated at lower temperatures the affinity of toluene was higher compared to that of benzene. In the bi-sorbate system the overall uptake of benzene increased. These phenomena might be due to the stronger hydrophobicity of toluene, and to a varying potential for swelling of the matrix and pore deformation by the two sorbates. The significantly lower sorption capacity of the Phalaris-derived material compared to the Red Gum charcoal correlated with its smaller surface area and higher cation content.     

Ozone stress and antioxidant substances in Trifolium repens and Centaurea jacea leaves

Ozone-sensitive (NC-S clone) and resistant plants (NC-R clone) of Trifolium repens and Centaurea jacea were exposed to moderate ozone concentrations in ambient air. The aim of this study was the investigation of the relation between ozone-sensitivity and leaf concentrations of antioxidants (ascorbic acid, total phenolics and total antioxidant capacity). NC-R clone showed the highest concentrations of antioxidants with 50-70% more ascorbic acid than NC-S. NC-R had about 5 times more ascorbic acid in the young leaves and 9 times more in the old leaves than Centaurea. In a fumigation experiment with acute ozone stress (100 nl L(-1)) the antioxidant levels changed profoundly. The ozone-injured leaves of NC-S had 6-8 times more total phenolics than uninjured leaves. Generally older leaves had lower antioxidant concentrations and were more prone to ozone injury than younger leaves. Ascorbic acid concentrations were closer related to the appearance of visible ozone injury than the other antioxidative parameters.     

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing uptake. However, experimental evidence is inconclusive. Numerous results suggest that pollutants and factors subject to global change (drought, CO(2)) may interact and even exacerbate effects, probably because antioxidative defense systems are involved in both, defense against pollutant effects and protection from natural stress. An effective pollutant dose, which is weighted by physiological defense capacity, would better predict such effects. In this review paper we argue that the flux-based approach is imperfect, because global change effects may also modify the physiological susceptibility to ozone. Instead, a flux concept weighted by defense capacity should be tested.