Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Impacts on industry of Europe's emerging chemicals policy REACh

For Europe, a new regime in chemicals regulation is about to start. After the proposal of the European Commission concerning the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACh) passed its readings in the European Parliament and some differences with the European Council of Ministers were resolved, the regulation will come into force in June 2007. This paper is focused on the question how serious the cost burdens for industry induced by REACh will be, and whether the New European Member States (NMS) which joined the European Union in May 2004 will be able to cope with the regulation. This evaluation has been done by assessing the legislative, administrative and economic framework in New Member States and by analysing real business cases in companies. The empirical showcase business impact studies are at the same time of interest for companies of EU-15 states, other European countries who may implement the regulation, and even for exporters of raw materials and chemicals outside Europe, who will also have to comply with REACh if they market in the European Community. The results give no indications that REACh adoption will bring significant drawbacks to companies in the NMS. The emerging regulation will bring challenges for individual companies, especially for small and medium-sized ones, but for the European chemical industry as a whole, there is no question that it will be able to cope with REACh burdens without losing its global competitiveness.     

The BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories in Africa—a standardized framework for large-scale environmental monitoring

The international, interdisciplinary biodiversity research project BIOTA AFRICA initiated a standardized biodiversity monitoring network along climatic gradients across the African continent. Due to an identified lack of adequate monitoring designs, BIOTA AFRICA developed and implemented the standardized BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories, that meet the following criteria (a) enable long-term monitoring of biodiversity, potential driving factors, and relevant indicators with adequate spatial and temporal resolution, (b) facilitate comparability of data generated within different ecosystems, (c) allow integration of many disciplines, (d) allow spatial up-scaling, and (e) be applicable within a network approach. A BIOTA Observatory encompasses an area of 1?km² and is subdivided into 100 1-ha plots. For meeting the needs of sampling of different organism groups, the hectare plot is again subdivided into standardized subplots, whose sizes follow a geometric series. To allow for different sampling intensities but at the same time to characterize the whole square kilometer, the number of hectare plots to be sampled depends on the requirements of the respective discipline. A hierarchical ranking of the hectare plots ensures that all disciplines monitor as many hectare plots jointly as possible. The BIOTA Observatory design assures repeated, multidisciplinary standardized inventories of biodiversity and its environmental drivers, including options for spatial up- and downscaling and different sampling intensities. BIOTA Observatories have been installed along climatic and landscape gradients in Morocco, West Africa, and southern Africa. In regions with varying land use, several BIOTA Observatories are situated close to each other to analyze management effects.     

Bioavailability of copper,cadmium, zinc,and lead in tropical savanna soils assessed by diffusive gradient in thin films (DGT) and ion exchange resin membranes

The technique of diffusion gradient in thin films (DGT) for assessing bioavailable metals has not been tested under field conditions. We assessed the relationships of DGT- and cation exchange resin-membrane-measured concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn with plant uptake of the metals under greenhouse and field conditions. In the greenhouse, the effective concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn by DGT correlated significantly with uptake by sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), but cation exchange resin-membrane-measured concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn did not correlate with sorghum uptake. In the field, the DGT-measured concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn were not linearly related to uptake Cd, Pb, and Zn by lettuce (Lactuca sativa) except for Cu uptake (r = 0.87, p < 0.05). Similarly, it was only the resin-membrane-extractable Pb that correlated with Pb uptake by lettuce (r = 0.77; p < 0.05). However, fitting non-linear regression models improved the plant metal uptake predictions by DGT-measured bioavailable Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn under field conditions. In conclusion, the DGT technique was fairly predictive of bioavailability in the greenhouse, but not in the field.     

The determination of the extractability of selected elements from agricultural soil

Concentrations of Ag, Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn—isolated by sequential extraction steps from apple orchard soil—were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy and compared to the total amount of metal in soil determined by XRF. The extractable amount of each metal was calculated by the extraction yields of the four steps. The LODs of the different elements in all extracts ware below 3 μg/L except for Ba (steps 1 and 2), Cu (step 1), Fe (all steps), K (steps 1–3), Mn (step 2), Na (steps 1–3), Ni (step 1), Pb (steps 1 and 4), and Zn (steps 1 and 2). The highest LOD (>10 μg/L) was found for Fe, K, and Na (step 1). The recovery of all metals after four sequential extraction steps was 90–112%. The repeatability (<1.1%), the intermediate precision (<5.3%), the day-to-day reproducibility (<6.2%), and the overall uncertainty of measurement (approximately 4–8.5%) for all analyzed metals supports the choice of the method used.     

Seasonal baseline of nutrients and stable isotopes in a saline lake of Argentina: biogeochemical processes and river runoff effects

The seasonal variability of inorganic and organic nutrients and stable isotopes and their relations with plankton and environmental conditions were monitored in Lake Chasicó. Principal component analysis evidenced the strong influence of the river runoff on several biogeochemical variables. Silicate concentrations were controlled by diatom biomass and river discharge. Higher values of nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) indicated agricultural uses in the river basin. Elevated pH values (～9) inhibiting nitrification in the lake explained partially the dominance of ammonium: ～83 % of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). The low DIN/SRP ratio inferred nitrogen limitation, although the hypotheses of iron and CO₂ limitation are relevant in alkaline lakes. Particulate organic matter (POM) and dissolved organic matter (DOM) were mainly of autochthonous origin. The main allochthonous input was imported by the river as POM owning to the arid conditions. Dissolved organic carbon was likely top-down regulated by the bacterioplankton grazer Brachionus plicatilis. The δ¹³C signature was a good indicator of primary production and its values were influenced probably by CO₂ limitation. The δ¹⁵N did not evidence nitrogen fixation and suggested the effects of anthropogenic activities. The preservation of a good water quality in the lake is crucial for resource management.     

The influence of landmarks on the systematic search behaviour of the desert isopod Hemilepistus reaumuri

Summary The desert isopod Hemilepistus reaumuri uses embankments of faeces, which each family builds around the entrance of its burrow, as an aid to homing after a foraging excursion. Though an isopod must touch its family's embankment (outer radius 8–15 cm) with its antennae before it can detect it, this landmark eases the return to the burrow appreciably. However, this advantage is imperiled by problems with similar landmarks. If during foraging the isopod goes astray and has to search for its landmark it also explores most of the alien families' embankments it detects, at least until it has located the burrow entrance within it. But it is not trapped by such similar landmarks. Whereas an isopod explores its own embankment until it comes to its burrow, digging for hours if the burrow entrance happens to be covered by sand, it leaves an alien embankment after most a few minutes and resumes its search. This shows that the isopod is able to distinguish this landmark from its own, probably by the same chemical badge it uses for the identification of family members. A desert isopod must explore alien embankments predominantly because it is not able to distinguish an alien embankment which is near its own burrow and may intersect its own embankment from others. Even when the animal explores and embankment in vain for a long time it could simply have overlooked its own burrow's entrance. In addition the isopod does not recognize an alien embankment which it has already explored. Therefore during a longer search, it has to explore an alien embankment again and again. H. reaumuri solves these identification problems, which correspond to the problems of other arthropods using landmarks for orientation, in a very successful manner. By repeatedly returning to a particular area it searches there more intensively, the greater the probability that its burrow is in this area according to the information, independent of landmarks, available to the animal. In most cases when it detects a particular alien embankment it explores it for a constant short time (on average 20.4 s). It follows that the isopod explores an alien embankment more intensively, the greater the probability that its burrow is within it. In this simple manner it approximately fulfills the rules of the best mathematical procedures that have recently been developed for solving search problems in which an object detected must be explored for some time before it can be distinguished from the real target. Theoretically these procedures are more successful than the search behaviour of H. reaumuri, but they require that either a particular landmark can be identified with certainty by exploration or that at least it can be recognized on a later contact. Although H. reaumuri does not meet these requirements, the success of its search behaviour is almost identical to that of the mathematical procedures.     

Current issues and uncertainties in the measurement and modelling of air-vegetation exchange and within-plant processing of POPs

Air-vegetation exchange of POPs is an important process controlling the entry of POPs into terrestrial food chains, and may also have a significant effect on the global movement of these compounds. Many factors affect the air-vegetation transfer including: the physicochemical properties of the compounds of interest; environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, humidity and light conditions; and plant characteristics such as functional type, leaf surface area, cuticular structure, and leaf longevity. The purpose of this review is to quantify the effects these differences might have on air/plant exchange of POPs, and to point out the major gaps in the knowledge of this subject that require further research. Uptake mechanisms are complicated, with the role of each factor in controlling partitioning, fate and behaviour process still not fully understood. Consequently, current models of air-vegetation exchange do not incorporate variability in these factors, with the exception of temperature. These models instead rely on using average values for a number of environmental factors (e.g. plant lipid content, surface area), ignoring the large variations in these values. The available models suggest that boundary layer conductance is of key importance in the uptake of POPs, although large uncertainties in the cuticular pathway prevents confirmation of this with any degree of certainty, and experimental data seems to show plant-side resistance to be important. Models are usually based on the assumption that POP uptake occurs through the lipophilic cuticle which covers aerial surfaces of plants. However, some authors have recently attached greater importance to the stomatal route of entry into the leaf for gas phase compounds. There is a need for greater mechanistic understanding of air-plant exchange and the 'scaling' of factors affecting it. The review also suggests a number of key variables that researchers should measure in their experiments to allow comparisons to be made between studies in order to improve our understanding of what causes any differences in measured data between sites.