MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

An enormous Jurassic turtle bone bed from the Turpan Basin of Xinjiang, China

A spectacular new terrestrial Konzentratlagerst?tte is introduced from the Turpan Basin of Xinjiang, China that probably belongs to the late Middle Jurassic Qigu Formation. It contains a mass accumulation of “xinjiangchelyid” turtles preliminarily identified as Annemys sp. In the zone with the highest turtle concentration, complete and articulated turtle skeletons are tightly packed at a density of up to 36 turtles per square meter. The fossiliferous layer is thickened here and shows an erosional base. This high concentration zone outcrops approximately 10?m in length and shows no decrease in turtle density after exposing 2?m of the layer into the hillside. Adjacent is a more expansive zone of at least 10?m by 30?m. In this region, the fossiliferous layer is evenly thick, and approximately five, fully disarticulated turtles are present per square meter. A conservatively estimated 1,800 turtles may, therefore, have been deposited at this site. It is likely that these aquatic turtles gathered in a retreating water hole in a riverine environment during a drought, much as some aquatic turtles will do today, but perished when the habitat dried up completely. A following catastrophic rainfall event caused a debris flow, possibly channelized in a dry river bed, which transported complete turtles, disarticulated turtles, and mudstone clasts and deposited them after a short distance. This taphonomic model is consistent with previous environmental reconstructions of the Turpan Basin during the late Middle Jurassic in predicting the episodic breakdown of regional monsoonal circulation resulting in a seasonally dry climate with severe episodic droughts.     

Levels of 3,3′,4,4′-tetrachloroazobenzene in herbicides and bulk reagents

The contamination levels of different commercial herbicides and bulk reagents with the carcinogen 3,3′,4,4′-tetrachloroazobenzene (TCAB) were determined by high resolution mass spectrometry. The concentrations vary from 0.00071 to 2.8 ug/g (ppm) for the herbicides and from 0.085 to 14 ug/g for the bulk reagents. They are thus lower than those of other reports.     

Glutathione status and glutathione reductase activity in spruce needles of healthy and damaged trees at two mountain sites

Levels of glutathione, in both reduced and oxidized form, and glutathione reductase activity were monitored in needles of healthy and damaged spruce trees (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) during the course of four vegetation periods at two natural sites. The glutathione content and glutathione reductase activity showed a pronounced annual rhythm in undamaged trees, whereas damaged spruce trees deviated significantly from this course. In comparison with undamaged trees, damaged trees showed markedly increased levels of glutathione during the test period of 1989-1991. However, glutathione reductase activity differed in damaged and undamaged trees, only in 1989-1990. The ratio of reduced to oxidized glutathione (GSH/GSSG ratio) was slightly higher in damaged trees, and the highest levels were found during the winter months. In the case of damaged trees, a correlation between GSH/GSSG ratio and current ozone levels at the sites could be clearly established. The present results indicate that damaged trees suffer from increased oxidative stress, especially in the period from June to October.     

Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value‐laden assumptions?

One of the principal tools used in the integrated assessment (IA) of environmental science, technology and policy problems is integrated assessment models (IAMs). These models are often comprised of many sub‐models adopted from a wide range of disciplines. A multi‐disciplinary tool kit is presented, from which three decades of IA of global climatic change issues have tapped. A distinction between multi‐ and inter‐disciplinarity is suggested, hinging on the synergistic value added for the latter. Then, a hierarchy of five generations of IAMs are proposed, roughly paralleling the development of IAMs as they incorporated more components of the coupled physical, biological and social scientific disciplines needed to address a “real world” problem like climatic change impacts and policy responses. The need for validation protocols and exploration of predictability limits is also emphasized. The critical importance of making value‐laden assumptions highly transparent in both natural and social scientific components of IAMs is stressed, and it is suggested that incorporating decision‐makers and other citizens into the early design of IAMs can help with this process. The latter could also help IA modelers to offer a large range of value‐containing options via menu driven designs. Examples of specific topics which are often not well understood by potential users of IAMs are briefly surveyed, and it is argued that if the assumptions and values embedded in such topics are not made explicit to users, then IAMs, rather than helping to provide us with refined insights, could well hide value‐laden assumptions or conditions. In particular, issues of induced technological change, timing of carbon abatement, transients, surprises, adaptation, subjective probability assessment and the use of contemporary spatial variations as a substitute for time evolving changes (what I label “ergodic economics”) are given as examples of problematic issues that IA modelers need to explicitly address and make transparent if IAMs are to enlighten more than they conceal. A checklist of six practices which might help to increase transparency of IAMs is offered in the conclusions. Incorporation of decision‐makers into all stages of development and use of IAMs is re‐emphasized as one safeguard against misunderstanding or misrepresentation of IAM results by lay audiences.     

Wie überraschend treten Erdbeben auf?

The seismic focal process is controlled by two kinds of physical parameters: On the one hand, stable entities namely the tectonic-stress field, the dimensions of elastically reacting volumes, and the size and orientation of preexisting fractures; on the other hand, frictionlike processes which greatly influence the situation before an earthquake and the seismic dislocations. Because of the singular direction of fault movements the friction processes change in an irreversible manner. These continuously changing situations determine, however, the relationship between aseismic creep and seismic movements. The friction phenomena also determine the distribution of seismic dislocations on focal surfaces of different geometric area.