RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT RULES DERWED WITH THE AID OF MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: The determination of optimum reservoir operating rules for reservoirs with multiple conflicting objectives is still a difficult task - despite many publications in this field. In this paper a three-step Multi Objective Decision Making (MODM) method is presented, the emphasis of which is placed on the necessity to make the work easy for the decision maker, which many MODM techniques fail to achieve. The method is applied to the development of a compromise optimum operating rule for a multi-purpose reservoir. In the first step of the method stochastic DP is chosen which is combined with the “weighting method” allowing combination of various objectives into one objective function. By systematically varying the weights for the objectives a large number of pareto optimum reservoir operating rules is generated. In the second step of the method the performance of all these operating rules is tested with the aid of a model simulating reservoir operation. The results are statistically analyzed and the reliabilities for attaining the various objectives are computed. The third step of the model applies another MODM technique which allows the decision maker - in a computer dialog - to select his optimum reservoir operating rule from the large number of pareto optimum solutions generated in step 1. Here he can specify his preferences for the various objectives. For this purpose two alternative MODM techniques are offered: Compromise Programming and the SEMOPS method. Their performance is shown along with the generation and selection of operating rules for the multi-objective Wupper reservoir system in Germany.     

EFFECTS OF STORM PATTERNS ON RUNOFF HYDROGRAPHS1

ABSTRACT: As an alternative to the conventional single-peak design storms commonly used in hydrologic practice, a large number of Southeastern Pennsylvania storm events were selected from hourly U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) records, and their temporal distributions were analyzed. From these recorded events, design storms of a typical distribution were developed for storm durations between 6 and 18 hours. All of these generated design storms have two or more peaks. The conventional single peak as well as the “typical” multi-peak storms were then applied to a simulated watershed. It was found that the multi-peak storms consistently produced more dispersed hydrographs with lower runoff peaks than the conventional single peak storms.     

Establishment patterns in a secondary tree line ecotone

On semi-open pre-alpine fen pastures Alder encroachment creates a dynamic mosaic of grassland and woodland, which is rich in ecotones from fen to Carr. The structural diversity in colonisation patterns of Alder on fens suggests a dependency on multiple environmental drivers. Unidirectional progressive ecotone development provides an opportunity to address a current deficit in understanding successional patterns, i.e. process-pattern relationships in a multiple factor regime.We developed an individual-based model of Alder establishment on fen grassland to investigate the dependency of encroachment patterns upon seed production, dispersal distances and safe site availability. The purpose of the model is to provide a causal understanding of establishment patterns of Alder. In the model, all life processes of Alder individuals were parameterised with field data. This allowed us to strictly perform bottom-up simulations and successfully check plausibility by comparing simulated establishment patterns of cohorts with observed ecotone structures.Simulation results show that establishment patterns strongly depend on environmental drivers. Spatial progression of Alder encroachment and width of ecotones, respectively, mainly depend on wind speed during seed dispersal. Dense establishment of Alder leading to community change from fen grassland to Carr, requires windows of opportunity, which are defined by the rare coincidence of widespread dispersal, high seed production and favorable establishment conditions. Life-history traits of Alder (mast year cycle, high seed weight, weak establishment in fen) spatially and temporarily constrain the encroachment process. The structural diversity of long-term encroachment patterns is explained by the event-driven character of encroachment.Modelling individual establishment pathways of seedlings starting from germination revealed an endogenous stochasticity in establishment patterns emerging from low seed densities in the tail of the dispersal function. We conclude an inherent stochastic structure of dispersal-limited tree line ecotones, which limits reconstruction of processes from patterns.In order to describe long-term successional patterns of Alder encroachment at landscape scale, we propose the combination of two concepts: deterministic “patch-movement” of Alder woodland driven by continuous ecotone migration together with rare and stochastic “infiltration” of single Alder trees into open fen grasslands. Conservation management can control predictable “patch-movement” by cutting off maturing saplings around existing Alder woods. But the preservation of the actual large proportion of open grassland in fen pastures from infiltrating Alder seedlings and from the subsequent shift of the pasture to a densely wooded state would require mowing additionally to extensive grazing.     

Perinatal dioxin exposure, cytochrome P-450 activity, liver functions and thyroid hormones at follow-up after 7-12 years

OBJECTIVES: Prenatal and lactational exposure to Dutch "background" dioxin levels may cause health effects spanning many years. In addition, perinatal studies have shown a relationship between dioxin exposure and thyroid disturbance. To assess the later health effects of prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure on liver function we measured plasma ALAT and ASAT levels amongst our longitudinal cohort, as was done perinatally and at 2(1/2) years. The children underwent a caffeine loading test to determine CYP1A2 activity. To assess the later effects on thyroid function we measured plasma TSH and FT4. STUDY DESIGN: A longitudinal cohort of 37 healthy children (age 7-12, mean 8.2 years), with documented prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure, ingested 3mg caffeine/kg BW 6h prior to blood withdrawal. Paraxanthine/caffeine molar ratio, ALAT, ASAT, TSH and FT4 were determined in venous blood. RESULTS: Linear regression of ASAT and ALAT revealed no relation with prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure. No correlation was found between the paraxanthine/caffeine molar ratio and prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure. Linear regression of TSH and FT4 revealed no relation with prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure. CONCLUSION: This follow-up has shown a normalisation of previously abnormal ALAT and ASAT levels, indicating a transient effect. CYP1A2 activity, measured by means of a caffeine-loading test, revealed no correlation with the prenatal and lactational exposures. A normalisation of previously abnormal thyroid hormone homeostasis was seen, also possibly indicating a transient effect. This study provides new data on long-term follow-up after perinatal dioxin exposure to background levels of dioxins.     

"Ni-struvite" - a new biomineral formed by a nickel resistant Streptomyces acidiscabies

Biomineralization dependent on bacterial activity has been described for struvite which is formed in soils, guano, putrescent matter and sediments. A new biomineral containing nickel instead of magnesium, Ni(NH4)(PO4) . 6H2O, has been identified. It was formed by nickel resistant Streptomyces acidiscabies E13, and putatively named nickel struvite. The mineral formation is dependent on biological activity since non-viable bacterial cells are not capable to induce formation of Ni-struvite under identical conditions. Formation of Ni-struvite was observed on colony surfaces upon prolonged incubation of solid minimal or complex media containing elevated concentrations of 8-15mM NiCl2. The formation of magnesium containing crystals was not observed although Mg2+ is present in the medium. However, the process was not depending on desiccation since small crystals attached to the mycelial biomass of the bacteria were observed microscopically also in liquid cultures of nickel supplemented minimal and complex media after two weeks of incubation. The capacity to induce biomineralization of a nickel containing mineral is postulated to constitute a resistance factor, allowing the soil bacterium to withstand high nickel concentrations. The strain shows nickel resistance as an adaption to its habitat, since this bacterium was isolated from a former uranium mining site in Eastern Thuringia, Germany, where nickel concentrations of up to 2000ppm (translating to appr. 30mM) occur as a result of former mining activities.     

A rapid lateral flow immunoassay for the detection of fungal alpha-amylase at the workplace

Fungal alpha-amylase is a flour supplement which is added to improve the quality of bakery products. Various studies have shown that exposure to this enzyme is an important risk factor for the development of bakers' allergy and this allergy is reported to be one of the most frequent causes of occupational asthma. A rapid assay was developed to monitor exposure to occupational allergens directly at the workplace. The sensitivity of the developed assay is 0.32 ng amylase mL(-1) in a buffer system with the commercially available alpha-amylase preparation Fungamyl 1600S as the standard. Initial validation tests (n = 33) were performed with airborne and settled dust from an industrial bakery. The new lateral flow immunoassay detected amylase in 22 of the 26 samples regarded as positive in an enzyme immunoassay, and was negative for all seven enzyme immunoassay-negative samples, while the four lateral flow immunoassay-negative/enzyme immunoassay-positive samples all had levels below 2 ng mL(-1). The sensitivity of 2 ng mL(-1) of the amylase lateral flow immunoassay is sufficient for first screening purposes and, therefore, this simple and rapid assay may allow direct on-site demonstration of work-related hazards of bio-allergen exposure. This would be particularly useful in occupational hygiene practice, especially in traditional or small-scale bakeries which lack the technological skills for testing the exposure to respiratory allergens.     

PENN STATE URBAN RUNOFF MODEL TO PINPOINT FLOOD PEAK SOURCE LOCATION1

ABSTRACT: The Penn State Urban Runoff Model, developed in 1976, is described in this paper. Aside from locating infiltration and detention basin operation in an unconventional manner, the model includes a peak flow presentation table which identifies watershed subareas chiefly responsible for the occurrence of flooding conditions at certain points in the watershed. The results of a case study on an urban drainage basin in the Philadelphia area is discussed, and preferred sites for retention ponds are suggested. The simplicity of the Penn State model is pointed out and computer run costs between 10 and 20 percent of the corresponding cards for HEC-I and SWMM are cited.