Model selection in demographic time series using VC-bounds

The problem of distinguishing density-independent (DI) from density-dependent (DD) demographic time series is important for understanding the mechanisms that regulate populations of animals and plants. We address this problem in a novel way by means of Statistical Learning Theory (SLT); SLT is built around the idea of VC-dimension, a complexity index for classes of parameterized functions. Though VC-dimensions of nonlinear models are generally unknown, in the linear case VC-dimension actually corresponds to the number of free parameters; this allows one to straightforwardly apply the model selection framework developed within SLT, and called Structural Risk Minimization (SRM). We generate noisy artificial time series, both DI and DD, and use SRM to recognize the model underlying the data, choosing among a suite of both density-dependent and independent demographies. We show that SRM significantly outperforms traditional model selection approaches, such as the Schwartz Information Criterion and Final Prediction Error in recognizing both density-dependence and independence.     

Implication of organic acids in the long-distance transport and the accumulation of lead in Sesuvium portulacastrum and Brassica juncea

The implication of organic acids in Pb translocation was studied in two species varying in shoot lead accumulation, Sesuvium portulacastrum and Brassica juncea. Citric, fumaric, malic and α-cetoglutaric acids were separated and determined by HPLC technique in shoots, roots and xylem saps of the both species grown in nutrient solutions added with 200 and 400 μM of Pb(II). The lead content of the xylem saps was determined by ICP–MS. Results showed that S. portulacastrum is more tolerant to Pb than B. juncea. Lead concentration in xylem sap of the S. portulacastrum was significantly greater than in that of B. juncea. For both species, a positive correlation was established between lead and citrate concentrations in xylem sap. However minor relationship was observed for fumaric, malic and α-cetoglutaric acids. In the shoots lead treatment also induced a significant increase in citric acid concentration. Both observations suggest the implication of citric acid in lead translocation and shoot accumulation in S. portulacastrum and B. juncea. The relatively high accumulation of citric acid in xylem sap and shoot of S. portulacastrum could explain its high potential to translocate and accumulate this metal in shoot suggesting their possible use to remediate Pb polluted soils.     

The key role played by the Augusta basin (southern Italy) in the mercury contamination of the Mediterranean Sea

The Augusta basin, located in SE Sicily (southern Italy), is a semi-enclosed marine area, labelled as a highly contaminated site. The release of mercury into the harbour seawater and its dispersion to the blue water, make the Augusta basin a potential source of anthropogenic pollution for the Mediterranean Sea. A mass balance was implemented to calculate the HgT budget in the Augusta basin. Results suggest that an average of ～0.073 kmol of HgT is released, by diffusion, on a yearly basis, from sediments to the seawater, with a consequent output of 0.162 kmol y(-1) to coastal and offshore waters; this makes the Augusta area an important contributor of mercury to the Mediterranean Sea. Owing to the geographical location of the Augusta basin, its outflowing shelf-waters are immediately intercepted by the surface Atlantic Ionian Stream (AIS) and mixed with the main gyres of the eastern Mediterranean Sea, thus representing a risk for the large-scale marine system.     

Soils and sediments of the Thua Thien-Hue Province (central Vietnam): recognizing trace element sources and the likely influence of natural events

Trace element concentrations have been measured in soil and sediment samples taken from the Thua Thien Hue (TT-H) Province and the Tam Giang-Cau Hai (TG-CH) Lagoon in 2002 and 2004. Results show that the lagoon is only slightly contaminated by elements such as Ag, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn, whereas As, probably naturally enriched in this Asian region, reaches values above the lowest internationally accepted sediment quality guidelines. Concentrations in soils are ascribable to natural sources and distributions in the TG-CH Lagoon are mainly influenced by river inputs, with Ag and Cd undergoing estuarine desorption processes. However, concentration-depth profiles of most trace elements in sediments show a recent increasing trend that might be linked to the economic development of the area. The comparison of porosity and (210)Pb depth profiles (confirmed also by Cd and As) from repeated samplings of the same core locations in the TG-CH Lagoon seems to account for a loss of 5-10 cm of surficial sediment that took place during the time interval between the two samplings. It is hypothesized that extreme meteorological events (e.g. a major typhoon that hit the area in November 2003) could be responsible for such sediment displacement.     

Conifer needles as passive biomonitors of the spatial and temporal distribution of DDT from a point source

Needles of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus nigra, were used as passive samplers for monitoring air contamination by sampling at increasing distances from a suspected point source of DDT. Needle concentrations declined with increasing distance downwind of the point source allowing to identify spatial and temporal trends of accumulation. This suggested that conifer needles are effective biomonitors of contamination levels in areas characterized by the presence of semi-volatile substances. Differences in uptake were apparent between the species. Needle morphology and structure were studied with scanning electron microscope (SEM) as were dimensional parameters (surface area, volume). The results suggest that the concentrations depend on a mechanism involving the inner structure of the needles, specifically the number and accessibility of resin channels rather than their surface area. Pine needles have more channels with greater accessibility than spruce. The results suggest that spruce is more suitable for short term measurement while pine for determining long term cumulative exposure.     

OPTIMAL BATHYMETRY OF TYRRHENIAN SEA BY STOCHASTIC INTERPOLATORS1

ABSTRACT: The analysis of the sea depth in the vicinity of a thermal power plant is important in view of the heat dispersion and transport of the cooling water discharged from the energy production processes. The bathymetry of the Tyrrhenian Sea in the area facing the thermoelectric plant being built at Montalto di Castro, Italy, is reconstructed with the aid of the kriging technique. The large number of measurements (2038) precludes the use of a global interpolation model. At the same time, the steepness of the variogram suggests that the stochastic process is likely non-stationary. The latter problem is managed by detrending the observed records with a fourth-order polynomial drift determined with the least squares method. The global approach is replaced with local models with an influence radius of 70 m and a minimal number of interpolation records equal to 10. The detrended residuals appear to be second-order stationary having an isotropic vaniogram that is fitted equally well by a linear or a spherical function. The average size of the local interpolation models is 28, which ensures a high cemputational efficiency. The bathymetry of the sea area of interest is then reconstructed over a regular grid with a total of 3570 nodes. The estimation standard deviation maps show that the accuracy of the prediction is even greater than the prescribed tolerance (= 0.2 m) and indicate that future data collection campaigns require a less dense and, therefore, less expensive recording network. The redundant measurement profiles are identified. Their elimination still allows for bathymetry estimates affected by interpolation errors that fall within the project specifications.