重大水利工程项目社会风险的牛鞭效应

重大水利工程在有效利用自然资源的同时,也将带来巨大的社会风险,且这种风险在传递过程中不断被放大扭曲,具有明显的牛鞭效应。本文在构建重大水利工程项目社会风险链模型基础上,具体分析了牛鞭效应的产生原因,并定量刻画了社会风险牛鞭效应的削弱机制。研究表明,水利工程项目信息尤其是隐性信息在施工方和当地民众之间传递的不及时或不准确,将导致社会风险被大幅放大,并形成牛鞭效应。牛鞭效应的具体大小主要取决于两方面,一方面是水利工程项目直接影响的利益受损当地民众比例,另一方面是社会风险传染率与退出率的比值。针对前者,除了设计良好的补偿机制来弥补具体的、可衡量的利益损失外,还须通过建立失地农民的社保体系来维护如地缘业缘消失带来的无形损失;针对后者,可以在政府各部门、施工方和民众之间建立良好的信息共享系统,把单向沟通改变为多向沟通,把治理模式从"政府治理"改变为"政府—民众共治",从而促进社会的和谐发展。     

西南山区某气井井场地基稳定性模拟分析

中国西南山区蕴藏着丰富的天然气资源,但随着开发规模的日益扩大,天然气井逐步转向山区这类地质环境恶劣的地区。本文以西南山区某气井为原型,在详细阐明井场区地质环境背景特征的基础上,首先对井场出现的典型地质问题——地下采空区进行定性判断和分析;之后选用F lac-2D有限差分软件,对井场加载前/后地下采空区可能造成的井场地基应力和变形特征,采用双洞和采空区这2种计算模型,进行数值模拟分析。模拟结果表明,井场加载前/后地基最大位移量为2 mm,地基局部地段出现拉应力区,但总体上地基稳定。研究结论将为后期建设中井场建筑物的优化布局及基础的选型提供依据。     

河流型硅藻水华研究进展

通过对硅藻水华发生机制相关文献的研究分析,对硅藻水华发生机制做了一般性探讨,并重点关注了河流型水华的发生机制的独特点。河流水华种类主要为中心硅藻纲,静水生态系统水华种类除中心硅藻纲还包括部分羽纹硅藻纲种类。河流水华硅藻种类对营养盐浓度、温度和光照等环境因子具有一定的适应范围。与静水生态系统相比,河流硅藻水华受气象和水文等物理指标的影响更为明显。河流硅藻水华中常具有时滞现象,其中由气象和水文因素引起的时滞现象最为明显。目前河流硅藻水华的防治仍然以上游水库下泄稀释为主,但是这种方法会造成一定的水资源浪费。河流水华硅藻的生理属性、硅藻水华对生态系统的影响、节水与抑制水华的统筹以及其他控制水华的方法都是未来河流硅藻水华研究的重点。     

The Dual Model for Tourism Resource Productivity Improvement

For natural resource science, resource productivity studying is an important subject. But researches on tourism resource productivity are limited. The most significant influencing factor on tourism resource productivity is the potential market scale of tourist locations, and second most important influencing factor is the resource endowment. Regional urban population is significantly correlated with region tourist numbers, being the decisive factor of region potential tour market scale. In tourism development, the dual model should be adopted: on one hand to enhance tour spot attractiveness, on the other hand to cultivate the potential market by improving urbanization level and other means. In the situation of tourism development fever spreading, the dual model for improving tourism productivity helps to avoid the "Great Leap Forward" which means that too rapid tourism construction divorces from actual market demand.     

2008年低温雨雪冰冻对武汉城市公共交通的影响评估

为了对2008年低温雨雪期间气象条件对城市交通运输的影响给出定量评估,运用天气分析及统计学方法,分析了低温雨雪冰冻期间武汉市主要气候特征,利用2008年初持续低温雨雪期间武汉城市公共交通线路（包括公交车、轮渡、汽渡）逐日停运数据,定义了持续低温雨雪冰冻过程城市公共交通影响度,通过统计分析,找到了关键气象因子、关键期和低温临界指标,建立了气象评估模型。结果表明：在持续低温雨雪冰冻过程中,初发时期是公共交通影响的关键时期之一,影响度与积雪深度关系最密切,在公交车、轮渡、汽渡3种交通工具中,公交车影响度与气象要素的相关最密切,对武汉城市公交车造成明显影响的临界气温是17℃。该结论在实际的气象灾害评估业务工作中进行了运用,效果良好     

Combined inverse modeling approach and load duration curve method for variable nitrogen total maximum daily load development in an agricultural watershed

Purpose  

Nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution has been an important cause for water quality impairment worldwide. To take the temporal variations of both NPS pollution and in-stream attenuation into consideration, an inverse modeling approach and the load duration curve (LDC) method were combined for variable nutrient total maximum daily load (TMDL) development.     

Biotoxicity of nickel oxide nanoparticles and bio-remediation by microalgae Chlorella vulgaris

Adverse effects of manufactured nickel oxide nanoparticles on the microalgae Chlorellavulgaris were determined by algal growth-inhibition test and morphological observation via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Results showed that the NiO nanoparticles had severe impacts on the algae, with 72 h EC(50) values of 32.28 mg NiOL(-1). Under the stress of NiO nanoparticles, C. vulgaris cells showed plasmolysis, cytomembrane breakage and thylakoids disorder. NiO nanoparticles aggregated and deposited in algal culture media. The presence of algal cells accelerated aggregation of nanoparticles. Moreover, about 0.14% ionic Ni was released when NiO NPs were added into seawater. The attachment of aggregates to algal cell surface and the presence of released ionic Ni were likely responsible for the toxic effects. Interestingly, some NiO nanoparticles were reduced to zero valence nickel as determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis. The maximum ratios of nickel reduction was achieved at 72 h of exposure, in accordance with the time-course of changes in soluble protein content of treated C. vulgaris, implying that some proteins of algae are involved in the process. Our results indicate that the toxicity and bioavailability of NiO nanoparticles to marine algae are reduced by aggregation and reduction of NiO. Thus, marine algae have the potential for usage in nano-pollution bio-remediation in aquatic system.     

Characterization of PM(2.5) collected during broadcast and slash-pile prescribed burns of predominately ponderosa pine forests in northern Arizona

Prescribed burning, in combination with mechanical thinning, is a successful method for reducing heavy fuel loads from forest floors and thereby lowering the risk of catastrophic wildfire. However, an undesirable consequence of managed fire is the production of fine particulate matter or PM(2.5) (particles ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter). Wood-smoke particulate data from 21 prescribed burns are described, including results from broadcast and slash-pile burns. All PM(2.5) samples were collected in situ on day 1 (ignition) or day 2. Samples were analyzed for mass, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), inorganic elements, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC). Results were characteristic of low intensity, smoldering fires. PM(2.5) concentrations varied from 523 to 8357 μg m(-3) and were higher on day 1. PAH weight percents (19 PAHs) were higher in slash-pile burns (0.21 ± 0.08% OC) than broadcast burns (0.07 ± 0.03% OC). The major elements were K, Cl, S, and Si. OC and EC values averaged 66 ± 7 and 2.8 ± 1.4% PM(2.5), respectively, for all burns studied, in good agreement with literature values for smoldering fires.     

pH、溶解氧、叶绿素a之间相关性研究Ⅱ：非养殖水体

利用国内、外近20年的资料和饮用水水源地潘家口水库现场围隔实验结果,分析非养殖水体中pH、溶解氧（DO）和叶绿素a之间的相互关系。结果表明,当水体处于富营养化状态即叶绿素a平均含量高于10μg/L时,pH、DO与叶绿素a呈显著正相关。当叶绿素a平均含量低于10μg/L时,水体交换强或有机重污染的天然水体中DO与叶绿素a...     

日本城市污水再生利用方面的经验分析

日本开展污水再生利用工作已经有30年的历史,经过多年的积累,在综合管理、技术开发应用等方面取得了一定的成果.对日本在再生水政策标准、生产模式、处理技术和技术经济性、安全输配和水质安全性等方面的概况进行了汇总分析,并对缺水地区--福冈、东京都和横滨的再生水生产利用实例进行了介绍,以期对我国城市污水再生利用具有一定的借鉴.