Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

An approach and preliminary model of integrating ecological and economic constraints of environmental quality in the Guayas River estuary, Ecuador

We describe conceptual and simulation models of land use within the intertidal zone of the Guayas River estuary to quantify the contribution of mangrove wetlands to maintaining environmental quality of a tropical estuary. The goal of this exercise is to demonstrate the important consideration of ecological constraints in determining economic and management decisions; and how modeling can be used to quantify impacts of land use such as loss of mangrove wetlands on environmental quality. Our conceptual model treats solar energy, river flow, and tides as forcing functions that control the properties of estuarine ecosystems, but also describes market forces and cultural policies as constraints on properties of socioeconomic systems. The controversy of coastal resource management in Ecuador centers around the relative impacts of shrimp pond construction and management as negative feedbacks to the environmental quality of the Guayas River estuary. Unique oceanographic processes and land use changes contribute to complex issues of water and habitat quality in this tropical estuary, the largest estuarine complex on the Pacific coast of South America. A dynamic box model was developed for the estuary and calibrated with data collected from a 14 month survey of water quality parameters throughout the estuary. Scenarios included conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds in three regions of the estuary, and the construction of a dam by varying three different rates of river discharge at 100, 50 and 10% of 1989 base flow. Good water quality is maintained by the low residence time of water in the estuary (11 d) because of seasonally high river flow and tidal exchange. With a 90% reduction of mangrove forests in the estuary caused by shrimp pond construction, total nitrogen concentrations increased 5 fold. However, as river discharge decreased to 10%, the same construction caused a 60 fold increase in nitrogen concentrations to 250 μM. Increases in nitrogen concentrations were higher in the upper estuary region, with much less change in the lower estuary. Thus the sensitivity of environmental quality to changes in land use in the intertidal and upland zone are linked to the hydrography of the estuary and is site specific. In the future, the combinations of these ecological models together with economic analyses of the goods and services of mangroves may provide better techniques to evaluate the economic impacts of specific coastal zone management decisions.     

Ingestion and incorporation of coral-mucus detritus by reef zooplankton

The copepod Acartia tonsa and the reef mysid Mysidium integrum ingest stained coral mucus. Ingestion rates determined with radioisotope-labeled mucus ranged from 4 to 81% body carbon · 24 h^-1 for the copepods and I to 70% body carbon · 24 h^-1 for the mysids. Incorporation was measured by comparing the organic composition of fecal material and by the incorporation of isotope-labeled mucus. A. tonsa incorporated 47% of ingested ash-free material, 68% of carbon and 36% of nitrogen. M. integrum incorporated 44% of ingested ash-free matter, 57% of carbon and 55% of nitrogen. Incorporation estimates using ¹⁴C-labeled mucus were 65% and 39% for incorporation by A. tonsa and M. integrum respectively. A. tonsa and M. integrum incorporated both the mucus substrate and the epiphytic bacteria of the mucus-detritus.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.