Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

Impacts of land cover on stream hydrology in the West Georgia Piedmont, USA

The southeastern United States is experiencing rapid urban development. Consequently, Georgia's streams are experiencing hydrologic alterations from extensive development and from other land use activities such as livestock grazing and silviculture. A study was performed to assess stream hydrology within 18 watersheds ranging from 500 to 2500 ha. Study streams were first, second, or third order and hydrology was continuously monitored from 29 July 2003 to 23 September 2004 using InSitu pressure transducers. Rating curves between stream stage (i.e., water depth) and discharge were developed for each stream by correlating biweekly discharge measurements and stage data. Dependent variables were calculated from discharge data and placed into 4 categories: flow frequency (i.e., the number of times a predetermined discharge threshold is exceeded), flow magnitude (i.e., maximum and minimum flows), flow duration (i.e., the amount of time discharge was above or below a predetermined threshold), and flow predictability and flashiness. Fine resolution data (i.e., 15-min interval) were also compared to daily discharge data to determine if resolution affected how streams were classified hydrologically. Urban watersheds experienced flashy discharges during storm events, whereas pastoral and forested watersheds showed less flashy hydrographs. Also, in comparison to all other flow variables, flow frequency measures were most strongly correlated to land cover. Furthermore, the stream hydrology was explained similarly with both the 15-min and daily data resolutions.     

Using Wildlife Communities to Improve Vegetation Classification for Conserving Biodiversity

Determining which vegetation types organisms perceive similarly and classifying these types into groups that function as similar habitats are necessary steps toward expanding the focus of conservation strategies from single species to ecosystems. Therefore, the methods used to determine these habitat classifications are crucial to the successful design and implementation of these conservation strategies. Typically, this process has been accomplished through best professional judgement. We used quantitative techniques to group vegetation types into habitats based on the occurrence of breeding wildlife species ( n = 420) in Oregon. After calculating faunal similarities among all regional vegetation types ( n = 130), we used cluster analysis to group vegetation types into wildlife habitats. We classified the original 130 vegetation types into 30 wildlife habitat types that we believe function similarly. We tested this classification to assess whether vegetation types could be correctly classified into habitat types based on wildlife species composition. Discriminant analysis correctly classified 95% of the vegetation types into their wildlife habitat types, strengthening our confidence in this approach. This approach for classifying habitat types allows consistent development of conservation strategies at coarse resolutions and aids in identifying vegetation types where additional biodiversity surveys are needed. Finally, this approach can be refined continuously as the precision of vegetation mapping and our understanding of organism-habitat associations improve.     

Jellyfish aggregations and leatherback turtle foraging patterns in a temperate coastal environment

Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are obligate predators of gelatinous zooplankton. However, the spatial relationship between predator and prey remains poorly understood beyond sporadic and localized reports. To examine how jellyfish (Phylum Cnidaria: Orders Semaeostomeae and Rhizostomeae) might drive the broad-scale distribution of this wide ranging species, we employed aerial surveys to map jellyfish throughout a temperate coastal shelf area bordering the northeast Atlantic. Previously unknown, consistent aggregations of Rhizostoma octopus extending over tens of square kilometers were identified in distinct coastal "hotspots" during consecutive years (2003-2005). Examination of retrospective sightings data (>50 yr) suggested that 22.5% of leatherback distribution could be explained by these hotspots, with the inference that these coastal features may be sufficiently consistent in space and time to drive long-term foraging associations.     

Sex difference in signature whistle production of free-ranging bottlenose dolphins,Tursiops truncates

Signature whistles of 42 free-ranging bottle-nose dophin calves were compared to those of their mothers. Humans judged their similarity by inspection of spectrograms. There was a sex difference in the tendency of calves to produce whistles similar to or different from those of their mothers; most female calves produced whistles that were different from those of their mothers, whereas male calves were more likely to produce whistles that were similar to those of their mothers. Because matrilineally related females associate together and use signature whistles to establish and/or maintain contact with their calves, there may be a selective pressure for females to produce whistles that are distinct from those of their mothers. There may be fewer constraints governing whistle development in males, with the result that some males produce whistles similar to those of their mothers and others do not.     

Atrazine induction of a family 4 cytochrome P450 gene in Chironomus tentans (Diptera: Chironomidae)

Cytochrome P450-dependent microsomal monooxygenase (P450) activity was measured in control and atrazine-exposed third instar midge larvae, Chironomus tentans. Significantly elevated O-demethylase activity was observed in gut homogenates taken from midges exposed to atrazine concentrations from 1 to 10 ppm for 90 h. No significant induction was observed at atrazine concentrations below 1 ppm. A region of a cytochrome P450 family 4 gene was amplified and sequenced from C. tentans larvae. Alignments of inferred amino acid sequences with other insect CYP4 gene homologues indicate a high degree of similarity. Northern blot analysis employing the CYP4 gene fragment as a probe showed an over-expression in C. tentans exposed to atrazine. The results support the previously identified inducibility of cytochrome P450-dependent activity and provide insight into the potential consequences of atrazine exposure to aquatic organisms.     

Sampling animal association networks with the gambit of the group

Ecologists increasingly use network theory to examine animal association patterns. The gambit of the group (GoG) is a simple and useful assumption for accumulating the data necessary for a network analysis. The gambit of the group implies that each animal in a group is associating with every other individual in that group. Sampling is an important issue for networks in wild populations collected assuming GoG. Due to time, effort, and resource constraints and the difficulty of tracking animals, sampled data are usually a subset of the actual network. Ecologists often use association indexes to calculate the frequency of associations between individuals. These indexes are often transformed by applying a filter to produce a binary network. We explore GoG sampling using model networks. We examine assortment at the level of the group by a single dichotomous trait, along with many other network measures, to examine the effect of different sampling regimes, and choice of filter on the accuracy and precision with which measures are estimated. We find strong support for the use of weighted, rather than filtered, network measures and show that different filters have different effects depending on the nature of the sampling. We make several practical recommendations for ecologists planning GoG sampling.