Mathematical modeling of phosphorus losses from land application of hog and cattle manure

Mathematical models may provide a means to estimate phosphorus (P) losses from land application of manure. Phosphorus losses typically occur during brief episodes of runoff and erosion. Models must be able to simulate P losses during these episodes by representing the basic chemical, physical, and biological processes by which these losses occur. The mathematical model ecosys combines dynamic distributed flow of solutes and nonsolutes through runoff and erosion with convective-dispersive transport of solutes, and both biologically and thermodynamically driven transformations between solutes and nonsolutes. This model was tested against P lost in runoff, erosion, and leachate measured during 90 min of controlled rainfall at 65 mm h(-1) on soils from six sites at which different rates of manure had been applied over the previous 3 to 6 yr. Transport and transformation kinetics in the model enabled it to simulate changes of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in runoff from >1.0 to <0.05 mg L(-1) and changes of total phosphorus (TP) in sediment from 15 to 3 mg L(-1) measured during controlled rainfall on soils with diverse P contents. Results from 60-yr model runs using these kinetics with different application rates of cattle manure indicated that (i) a positive interaction exists between annual rainfall and application rate on P losses and (ii) rates greater than 30 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) would cause TP concentrations in water leaving the site to rise above acceptable limits. The interaction between rainfall and rate suggests that P losses from manure application at any site should be assessed under the upper range of likely rainfall intensities.     

Validation of procedures to quantify nonextractable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon residues in soil

This study was conducted to optimize butanol solvent shake extraction, dichloromethane soxtec extraction, and methanolic saponification extraction for the selective extraction of aged polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from soil. Extraction kinetics for these methods was established to determine the optimal time necessary to achieve exhaustive compound extraction. This resulted in times of 12, 6, and 5 h, respectively, for butanol, dichloromethane, and saponification, to extract polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from previously spiked, then aged soil. Increasing the soil mass to butanol volume ratio reduced the proportion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon extracted by butanol, highlighting the importance of determining and maintaining a constant soil to solvent ratio for comparative purposes. Drying soil samples before dichloromethane soxtec extraction reduced by 30 to 76% the amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons extracted. The effect of sample drying is discussed with relevance to enhancing the formation of nonextractable compounds in soil and compound losses previously assumed by volatilization. The optimized extraction procedures provided low variability with relative standard deviations < or = 5.2% for analysis of multiple replicates. The results obtained by the optimized procedures provided equivalent or improved reproducibility to those obtained by other methods reported in the literature.     

Modeling Problems in Conservation Genetics Using Captive Drosophila Populations: Consequences of Equalization of Family Sizes

Equalization of family sizes is recommended for use in captive breeding programs, as it is predicted to double effective population sizes, reduce inbreeding, and slow the loss of genetic variation. The effects of maintaining small captive populations with equalization of family sizes versus random choice of parents on levels of inbreeding genetic variation, reproductive fitness, and effective population sizes ( N _e) were evaluated in 10 lines of each treatment maintained with four pairs of parents per generation. The mean inbreeding coefficient ( F ) increased at a significantly slower rate with equalization than with random choice (means of 0.35 and 0.44 at generation 10). Average heterozygosities at generation 10, based on six polymorphic enzyme loci, were significantly higher with equalization (0.149) than with random choice (0.085), compared to the generation 0 level of 0.188. The competitive index measure of reproductive fitness at generation 11 was more than twice as high with equalization as with random choice, both being much lower than in the outbred base population. There was considerable variation among replicate lines within treatments in all the above measures and considerable overlap between lines from the two treatments. Estimates of N _e for equalization were greater than those for random choice, whether estimated from changes in average heterozygosities or from changes in F. Equalization of family sizes can be unequivocally recommended for use in the genetic management of captive populations.     

Systems analysis and simulation of the NW African marine upwelling region

A temporal and spatial marine upwelling system model is developed for analysis of prominent biological and physical system interactions which result in obserbed nutrient distribution patterns in the northwest African coastal upwelling system near 21° N. The model is composed of a physical submodel describing a two-dimensional circulation pattern, and a series of biological submodels describing nutrient regeneration.Model results were qualitatively consistent with nutrient distributions observed during an upwelling event in the 1974 JOINT-I study area. Simulated silicate distribution patterns suggest that silica dissolution parameter estimates reported for the northwest African region may represent local conditions, but are likely overestimates at a system level of resolution. Sensitivity analysis results identify grazing threshold level as the primary regulator of model grazing stress. Paucity of herbivorous nekton grazing suggests that primarily phytophagous grazing habit for clupeoid fishes is unlikely in the northwest African upwelling area.     

A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus ives) growth,movement, and survival in Galveston Bay,Texas

A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus Ives) population dynamics in Galveston Bay, Texas, is described, validated, and used to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and changing environmental conditions on shrimp dynamics. The model is composed of submodels representing: (1) recruitment, (2) growth, (3) natural mortality, (4) fishing mortality, and (5) emigration of brown shrimp. The model predicts significant changes in total annual harvest from the food shrimp, bait, and recreational fisheries resulting from (1) closure of the bay system to all fishing except during the spring and fall open seasons, (2) two-week postponement of the opening and closing of the open seasons for the food shrimp fishery, (3) a 2.5°C increase and (4) a 2.5°C decrease in mean water temperature, (5) an 80% increase and (6) an 80% decrease in fishing effort. No significant change in the total annual harvest is predicted when the food shrimp fishing season is extended from May 15 through December 15. Sensitivity analysis suggests that field experimentation designed specifically to test the hypothesis of a 60-day time lag between brown shrimp recruitment into the bays and exposure to the fishery should receive high priority. Simulation results are discussed within a management framework.     

Crop residue removal and fertilizer N: Effects on soil organic carbon in a long-term crop rotation experiment on a Udic Boroll

Biofuels can be produced by converting cellulose in crop residues to ethanol. This has recently been viewed as a potential supplement to non-renewable energy sources, especially in the Americas. A 50-yr field experiment was analyzed to determine the influence of (i) removing approximately 22% of the above-ground wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) residue each crop year, and (ii) N and P fertilization on soil carbon (C) in the top 15 cm depth of a fallow–wheat–wheat (F–W–W) rotation. The study was conducted from 1958 to 2007 on a clay soil, at Indian Head in sub-humid southeast Saskatchewan, Canada. Soil C concentrations and bulk densities were measured in the 0–7.5 and 7.5–15 cm depths in 1987, 1996 and 2007 and soil C changes were related to C inputs estimated from straw and root yields calculated from regressions relating these to grain yields. Two soil organic matter models [the Campbell model and the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM)] were also used to simulate and predict the effects of the treatments on soil C change over time, and to estimate likely soil C change if 50% or 95% of above-ground residues were harvested each crop year. Crop residue removal reduced cumulative C inputs from straw and roots over the 50-yr experiment by only 13%, and this did not significantly (P > 0.05) reduce soil C throughout the experiment duration. However, after 50 yr of applying N fertilizer at recommended rates, soil C increased significantly by about 3 Mg ha⁻¹ compared to the non-fertilized treatment. The simulated effect of removing 50% and 95% of the above-ground residues suggested that removing 50% of the straw would likely have a detectable effect on the soil C, while removing 95% of the straw certainly would. Measurements and model simulations suggest that adoption of no-tillage without proper fertilization will not increase soil C. Although it appears that a modest amount of residue may be safely removed from these Udic Borolls (Black Chernozems) without a measurable effect on soil C, this would only be feasible if accompanied by appropriate fertility management.