Forward selection of explanatory variables

This paper proposes a new way of using forward selection of explanatory variables in regression or canonical redundancy analysis. The classical forward selection method presents two problems: a highly inflated Type I error and an overestimation of the amount of explained variance. Correcting these problems will greatly improve the performance of this very useful method in ecological modeling. To prevent the first problem, we propose a two-step procedure. First, a global test using all explanatory variables is carried out. If, and only if, the global test is significant, one can proceed with forward selection. To prevent overestimation of the explained variance, the forward selection has to be carried out with two stopping criteria: (1) the usual alpha significance level and (2) the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra(2)) calculated using all explanatory variables. When forward selection identifies a variable that brings one or the other criterion over the fixed threshold, that variable is rejected, and the procedure is stopped. This improved method is validated by simulations involving univariate and multivariate response data. An ecological example is presented using data from the Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, U.S.A.     

The place of nature in conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts are gaining importance in contemporary conservation scholarship such that conservation may have entered a conflict hype. We attempted to uncover and deconstruct the normative assumptions behind such studies by raising several questions: what are conservation conflicts, what justifies the attention they receive, do conservation-conflict studies limit wildlife conservation, is scientific knowledge stacked against wildlife in conservation conflicts, do conservation-conflict studies adopt a specific view of democracy, can laws be used to force conservation outcomes, why is flexibility needed in managing conservation conflicts, can conservation conflicts be managed by promoting tolerance, and who needs to compromise in conservation conflicts? We suggest that many of the intellectual premises in the field may defang conservation and prevent it from truly addressing the current conservation crisis as it accelerates. By framing conservation conflicts as conflicts between people about wildlife or nature, the field insidiously transfers guilt, whereby human activities are no longer blamed for causing species decline and extinctions but conservation is instead blamed for causing social conflicts. When the focus is on mitigating social conflicts without limiting in any powerful way human activities damaging to nature, conservation-conflict studies risk keeping conservation within the limits of human activities, instead of keeping human activities within the limits of nature. For conservation to successfully stop the biodiversity crisis, we suggest the alternative goal of recognizing nature's right to existence to maintenance of ecological functions and evolutionary processes. Nature being a rights bearer or legal person would imply its needs must be explicitly taken into account in conflict adjudication. If, even in conservation, nature's interests come second to human interests, it may be no surprise that conservation cannot succeed.     

Uptake and transport of radioactive nickel and cadmium into three vegetables after wet aerial contamination

Knowledge of radionuclide or trace element retention and translocation to plants following an aerial contamination event, for example, sprinkling with contaminated water, is necessary for the evaluation of human exposure through consumption of contaminated vegetables. The fate of 63Ni and 109Cd in all plant parts of three different vegetables after wet deposition on leaves or on fruits was studied. Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.), radish (Raphanus sativus L.), and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) grown under controlled conditions in a growth chamber were contaminated with 63Ni and 109Cd either on leaves, by means of two different contamination methods (a single early contamination and a repetitive one), or on bean husks (third contamination method: a single contamination at a late stage). Spiked and nonspiked organs were harvested at maturity and radionuclide contents were measured. The fraction retained was on average 56% of the initially administered doses of 63Ni and 87% of 109Cd. The leaf-to-other organ translocation factor was considerably higher for 63Ni (on average 43% of retained radioactivity) than for 109Cd (8%). Nickel-63 migrated throughout the whole plant following foliar contamination, and mainly toward young leaves, seeds in formation, and sink organs, whereas 109Cd migrated to a much lesser extent and only to the organs that were closest to the spiked one, and not at all into fruit. After a fruit contamination event, both radionuclides were translocated into the seeds of spiked fruits. Radionuclide retention and translocation were not affected by plant species, but principally by the type of organ contaminated.     

Defining patch mosaic functional types to predict invasion patterns in a forest landscape.

Alien plant invasions contribute significantly to global changes by often affecting biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Operational methods for identifying landscape attributes that promote or constrain plant invasions are urgently needed to predict their future spread and manage them efficiently. We combined landscape and functional ecology concepts to define patch mosaic functional types (PMFTs) as groups of cells showing the same response to a plant invasion in a heterogeneous forest landscape. The invasion of a European temperate forest by the American black cherry (Prunus serotina) has been chosen as a case study. A set of variables was collected, mapped using a Geographic Information System, and analyzed with multivariate analyses to correlate landscape traits with Prunus serotina abundance in each cell of a grid overlaid on the forest. A risk index was derived and mapped for three invasion levels: seedling colonization, tree establishment, and ecosystem invasion. Five PMFTs were identified and characterized by a set of traits related to soil properties, land use, disturbance, and invasion history. Scots pine plantations on podzols were the most invasible, while cells dominated by hydromorphic or calcareous soils were the most resistant. Most colonized patch mosaics provided suitable conditions for future establishment and invasion. Being strongly spatially connected, suitable patches provide corridors for Prunus serotina to colonize new parts of the forest. Conversely, the most resistant PMFTs were spatially agglomerated in the south of the forest and could act as a barrier. Colonization, establishment, and invasion risk maps were finally obtained by combining partial risks associated with each landscape trait at the cell scale. Within a heterogeneous landscape, we defined and organized PMFTs into a hierarchy, according to their associated risk for colonization, establishment, or invasion by a given invasive species. Each hierarchical level should be associated with a management strategy aiming at reducing one or more partial risk. Monitoring safe areas, extending cutting rotations, harvesting recently colonized stands tree by tree, promoting a multilayered understory vegetation, cutting down reproducing alien trees, favoring shade-tolerant, fast-growing, native tree species, removing alien trees at the leading edge, and proposing soil enrichment or irrigation in heavily invaded areas are recommended.     

Evaluation of Material Biodegradability in Real Conditions–Development of a Burial Test and an Analysis Methodology Based on Numerical Vision

This work validated a burial protocol for in situ testing and presents a robust, repeatable and time-saving technique to measure degraded areas in the sample, i.e. an image analysis method. 1440 specimens of degraded samples have been compiled in a data base. To this end, twenty samples presenting different levels of biodegradability (i.e. PHBV/HV, PLA, PCL, PCL-Starch, paper, PE, PE-Starch) were buried at 4 different locations and then disinterred at 4, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24-month intervals. The biodegradation levels of these samples were determined by computing weight and area loss. Weight loss was measured after careful cleaning, whereas area loss was quantified using image analysis. Image analysis gives reliable information on visual pollution while only requiring a rudimentary and thus quicker cleaning of the samples.