Forward selection of explanatory variables

This paper proposes a new way of using forward selection of explanatory variables in regression or canonical redundancy analysis. The classical forward selection method presents two problems: a highly inflated Type I error and an overestimation of the amount of explained variance. Correcting these problems will greatly improve the performance of this very useful method in ecological modeling. To prevent the first problem, we propose a two-step procedure. First, a global test using all explanatory variables is carried out. If, and only if, the global test is significant, one can proceed with forward selection. To prevent overestimation of the explained variance, the forward selection has to be carried out with two stopping criteria: (1) the usual alpha significance level and (2) the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra(2)) calculated using all explanatory variables. When forward selection identifies a variable that brings one or the other criterion over the fixed threshold, that variable is rejected, and the procedure is stopped. This improved method is validated by simulations involving univariate and multivariate response data. An ecological example is presented using data from the Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, U.S.A.     

Nitrate reductase for nitrate analysis in water

Nitrate analysis in water is one of the most frequently applied methods in environmental chemistry. Current methods for nitrate are generally based on toxic substances. Here, we show that a viable alternative method is to use the enzyme nitrate reductase. The key to applying this Green Chemistry solution for nitrate analysis is plentiful, inexpensive, analytical grade enzyme. We demonstrate that recombinant Arabidopsis nitrate reductase, expressed in the methylotrophic yeast Pichia pastoris, is a highly effective catalyst for nitrate analysis at 37°C. Recombinant production of enzyme ensures consistent quality and provides means to meet the needs of environmental chemistry.     

Organic aerosol molecular composition and gas–particle partitioning coefficients at a Mediterranean site (Corsica)

Molecular speciation of atmospheric organic matter was investigated during a short summer field campaign performed in a citrus fruit field in northern Corsica(June 2011). Aimedat assessing the performance on the field of newly developed analytical protocols, this work focuses on the molecular composition of both gas and particulate phases and provides an insight into partitioning behavior of the semi-volatile oxygenated fraction. Limonene ozonolysis tracers were specifically searched for, according to gas chromatography–mass spectrometry(GC–MS) data previously recorded for smog chamber experiments. A screening of other oxygenated species present in the field atmosphere was also performed. About sixty polar molecules were positively or tentatively identified in gas and/or particle phases. These molecules comprise a wide range of branched and linear, mono and di-carbonyls(C_3–C7),mono and di-carboxylic acids(C_3–C_18), and compounds bearing up to three functionalities.Among these compounds, some can be specifically attributed to limonene oxidation and others can be related to α- or β-pinene oxidation. This provides an original snapshot of the organic matter composition at a Mediterranean site in summer. Furthermore, for compounds identified and quantified in both gaseous and particulate phases, an experimental gas/particle partitioning coefficient was determined. Several volatile products, which are not expected in the particulate phase assuming thermodynamic equilibrium, were nonetheless present in significant concentrations. Hypotheses are proposed to explain these observations, such as the possible aerosol viscosity that could hinder the theoretical equilibrium to be rapidly reached.     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

Global mismatches in aboveground and belowground biodiversity

Human activities are accelerating global biodiversity change and have resulted in severely threatened ecosystem services. A large proportion of terrestrial biodiversity is harbored by soil, but soil biodiversity has been omitted from many global biodiversity assessments and conservation actions, and understanding of global patterns of soil biodiversity remains limited. In particular, the extent to which hotspots and coldspots of aboveground and soil biodiversity overlap is not clear. We examined global patterns of these overlaps by mapping indices of aboveground (mammals, birds, amphibians, vascular plants) and soil (bacteria, fungi, macrofauna) biodiversity that we created using previously published data on species richness. Areas of mismatch between aboveground and soil biodiversity covered 27% of Earth's terrestrial surface. The temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome had the highest proportion of grid cells with high aboveground biodiversity but low soil biodiversity, whereas the boreal and tundra biomes had intermediate soil biodiversity but low aboveground biodiversity. While more data on soil biodiversity are needed, both to cover geographic gaps and to include additional taxa, our results suggest that protecting aboveground biodiversity may not sufficiently reduce threats to soil biodiversity. Given the functional importance of soil biodiversity and the role of soils in human well-being, soil biodiversity should be considered further in policy agendas and conservation actions by adapting management practices to sustain soil biodiversity and considering soil biodiversity when designing protected areas.     

How to foster agroecological innovations? A comparison of participatory design methods

Facing contemporary environmental crisis implies fostering agroecological innovations that take into account local ecological regulations and rely on multiple stakeholders' innovation capacities. This paper draws on two fields of literature that remain unconnected so far: participatory approaches and design sciences. It proposes an analysis grid to support a reflexive analysis of cases of implementation of three participatory design methods: ComMod (Companion Modelling for concerted management of natural resources), Forage Rummy (simulation-based board game for designing farming systems) and KCP (collective design workshops to foster innovation). This analysis highlights key features of the methods in view of agroecological innovation challenges, focusing on knowledge management and organisation for exploration.