Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A first trimester trisomy 13/trisomy 18 risk algorithm combining fetal nuchal translucency thickness,maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A

This study examines 45 cases of trisomy 13 and 59 cases of trisomy 18 and reports an algorithm to identify pregnancies with a fetus affected by trisomy 13 or 18 by a combination of maternal age fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A at 11–14 weeks of gestation. In this mixed trisomy group the median MoM NT was increased at 2.819, whilst the median MoMs for free β-hCG and PAPP-A were reduced at 0.375 and 0.201 respectively. We predict that with the use of the combined trisomy 13 and 18 algorithm and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 will for a 0.3% false positive rate allow 95% of these chromosomal defects to be identified at 11–14 weeks. Such algorithms will enhance existing first trimester screening algorithms for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple and effective approach for detecting maternal cell contamination in molecular prenatal diagnosis

The presence of maternal cells in fetal samples constitutes a serious potential source for prenatal misdiagnosis. Here we present our approach for detecting maternal cell contamination (MCC) at prenatal diagnosis for eight monogenic disorders (autosomal recessive: β-thalassaemia, sickle-cell anaemia, cystic fibrosis, prelingual deafness; autosomal dominant: achondroplasia, Huntington disease, myotonic dystrophy, neurofibromatosis type I; X-linked: spinobulbar muscular atrophy). Our aim was to apply a simple and low-cost approach, which would easily and accurately provide information on the fetal tissue MCC status. MCC testing was applied to cases of recessive inheritance where the primary mutation screening of the fetus revealed the presence of the maternal mutation, to cases concerning dominant inheritance and to cases of multiple gestation. The potential presence of maternal cells was determined by the amplification of the 3′-HVR/APO B, D1S80, THO1 and VNTRI of vWf polymorphic loci, which have previously demonstrated high heterozygosity in Caucasians. Among 135 prenatal diagnoses, 44 finally needed to be tested for MCC (32.6%). MCC was detected in four cases, where DNA was isolated directly from chorionic villi samples (CVS), and in one case with DNA isolated directly from amniotic fluid (AF). In almost 90% of cases a simple test of one polymorphic locus provided sufficient information about MCC. The choice of the appropriate locus is therefore essential, while the simultaneous screening of both parents provides the means for distinguishing non-informative sites about MCC. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability in larval development of the tropical reef fish Pomacentrus amboinensis (Pomacentridae): the parental legacy

The effects of food availability, female size, and social interactions on the quality of Pomacentrus amboinensis larvae at hatching were examined using two field-based experiments. In Experiment 1, food availability and female size significantly influenced size, eye diameter and levels of yolk reserves of larvae at hatching. Small females (47 to 52 mm standard length, SL) whose diets were not supplemented, produced the longest larvae (3.0 ± 0.01 mm total length, TL) with the least yolk reserves (50.1 ± 1.04 μm²). Irrespective of female size, those that received additional food produced larvae with the largest yolk-sacs (large females: 87.60 ± 1.53 μm²; small females: 80.14 ± 1.24 μm²). In Experiment 2, interactions with conspecifics had a greater affect on the somatic development of larvae at hatching than food availability. Increased social interactions resulted in larvae that were ⋍3% longer, with 2% greater head depth, than larvae from females that spawned in isolation on the experimental reefs. Fed females produced larvae with ⋍20% more yolk than larvae from females whose diets were not supplemented. All three factors (food availability, female size, and intensity of social interactions) tested within these experiments vary spatially and temporally among reefs. There is the potential, therefore, for larvae at the onset of the planktonic stage to vary in quality, level of development, and probability of survival. Received: 12 August 1996 / Accepted: 26 August 1996     

Fetal phenotype of Prader–Willi syndrome due to maternal disomy for chromosome 15

Prader–Willi syndrome (PWS) results from either paternal deletion of 15q11–q13, or maternal uniparental disomy (UPD) of chromosome 15 or imprinting center mutation. Prenatal diagnosis of PWS is currently indicated for chromosomal parental translocation involving chromosome 15 and for decreased fetal movements during the third trimester of gestation. Here we present the prenatal diagnosis of PWS during the first trimester of gestation and autopsy findings. Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was performed for advanced maternal age at 13 weeks' gestation. CVS showed mosaicism including cells with a normal karyotype and cells with trisomy 15. Amniocentesis showed cells with a normal karyotype. Molecular analysis demonstrated that the fetus had a typical PWS abnormal methylation profile and maternal disomy for chromosome 15. Fetal ultrasound examination showed slightly enlarged lateral ventricles and hypoplasic male external genitalia without intra-uterine growth retardation. The autopsy showed a eutrophic male fetus with facial dysmorphy, hypoplasic genitalia, abnormal position of both feet and posterior hypoplasia of the corpus callosum. This report points out that in a karyotypically normal fetus with ambiguous male external genitalia and cerebral anomalies, extensive cytogenetic and molecular biology studies are strongly recommended because of risk of PWS. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.