Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.     

Geologic processes influence the effects of mining on aquatic ecosystems

Geologic processes strongly influence water and sediment quality in aquatic ecosystems but rarely are geologic principles incorporated into routine biomonitoring studies. We test if elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment are restricted to streams downstream of mines or areas that may discharge mine wastes. We surveyed 198 catchments classified as "historically mined" or "unmined," and based on mineral-deposit criteria, to determine whether water and sediment quality were influenced by naturally occurring mineralized rock, by historical mining, or by a combination of both. By accounting for different geologic sources of metals to the environment, we were able to distinguish aquatic ecosystems limited by metals derived from natural processes from those due to mining. Elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment were not restricted to mined catchments; depauperate aquatic communities were found in unmined catchments. The type and intensity of hydrothermal alteration and the mineral deposit type were important determinants of water and sediment quality as well as the aquatic community in both mined and unmined catchments. This study distinguished the effects of different rock types and geologic sources of metals on ecosystems by incorporating basic geologic processes into reference and baseline site selection, resulting in a refined assessment. Our results indicate that biomonitoring studies should account for natural sources of metals in some geologic environments as contributors to the effect of mines on aquatic ecosystems, recognizing that in mining-impacted drainages there may have been high pre-mining background metal concentrations.     

Look before you leap - individual variation in social vigilance shapes socio-spatial group properties in an agent-based model

Next to predator detection, primate vigilance also serves to keep track of relevant conspecifics. The degree of vigilance towards group members often reflects the dominance rank of an individual: subordinates pay attention to dominants. Although it has been suggested that subordinates' vigilance may result in spatial centrality of dominants, this has not been addressed in either empirical or modeling studies. Using agent-based models, we determined how social vigilance affects socio-spatial properties of primate groups. A basic model without social vigilance, where individuals avoid potential aggressors (avoidance model), was contrasted with two models that each additionally included a different type of social vigilance: a) monitoring a specific potential aggressor to remain informed on its whereabouts (monitoring model) or b) scanning the whole group to detect potential aggressors (scanning model). Adding monitoring or scanning behavior to the avoidance model reinforced spatial centrality of dominants, a pattern often observed in primates, and resulted in more spread out groups. Moreover, variation in scanning tendency alone was already sufficient to generate spatial centrality of dominants: frequently scanning subordinates could move further away from the group center than dominants, before losing sight of group members. In the monitoring model, two mechanisms caused decreased encounter frequencies among subordinates: a) increased inter-individual distances, and b) frequent monitoring of central dominants. In the scanning model, encounters among subordinates decreased due to increased inter-individual distances. This agent-based model study provides a clear indication that individual variation in social vigilance may be an important structuring feature of primate social groups.     

Trait similarity patterns within grass and grasshopper communities: multitrophic community assembly at work

Trait-based community assembly theory suggests that trait variation among co-occurring species is shaped by two main processes: abiotic filtering, important in stressful environments and promoting similarity, and competition, more important in productive environments and promoting dissimilarity. Previous studies have indeed found trait similarity to decline along productivity gradients. However, these studies have always been done on single trophic levels. Here, we investigated how interactions between trophic levels affect trait similarity patterns along environmental gradients. We propose three hypotheses for the main drivers of trait similarity patterns of plants and herbivores along environmental gradients: (1) environmental control of both, (2) bottom-up control of herbivore trait variation, and (3) top-down control of grass trait variation. To test this, we collected data on the community composition and trait variation of grasses (41 species) and grasshoppers (53 species) in 50 plots in a South African savanna. Structural equation models were used to investigate how the range and spacing of within-community functional trait values of both grasses and their insect herbivores (grasshoppers; Acrididae) respond to (1) rainfall and fire frequency gradients and (2) the trait similarity patterns of the other trophic level. The analyses revealed that traits of co-occurring grasses became more similar toward lower rainfall and higher fire frequency (environmental control), while showing little evidence for top-down control. Grasshopper trait range patterns, on the other hand, were mostly directly driven by vegetation structure and grass trait range patterns (bottom-up control), while environmental factors had mostly indirect effects via plant traits. Our study shows the potential to expand trait-based community assembly theory to include trophic interactions.     

Do predators control prey species abundance? An experimental test with brown treesnakes on Guam

The effect of predators on the abundance of prey species is a topic of ongoing debate in ecology; the effect of snake predators on their prey has been less debated, as there exists a general consensus that snakes do not negatively influence the abundance of their prey. However, this viewpoint has not been adequately tested. We quantified the effect of brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) predation on the abundance and size of lizards on Guam by contrasting lizards in two 1-ha treatment plots of secondary forest from which snakes had been removed and excluded vs. two 1-ha control plots in which snakes were monitored but not removed or excluded. We removed resident snakes from the treatment plots with snake traps and hand capture, and snake immigration into these plots was precluded by electrified snake barriers. Lizards were sampled in all plots quarterly for a year following snake elimination in the treatment plots. Following the completion of this experiment, we used total removal sampling to census lizards on a 100-m2 subsample of each plot. Results of systematic lizard population monitoring before and after snake removal suggest that the abundance of the skink, Carlia ailanpalai, increased substantially and the abundance of two species of gekkonids, Lepidodactylus lugubris and Hemidactylus frenatus, also increased on snake-free plots. No treatment effect was observed for the skink Emoia caeruleocauda. Mean snout-vent length of all lizard species only increased following snake removal in the treatment plots. The general increase in prey density and mean size was unexpected in light of the literature consensus that snakes do not control the abundance of their prey species. Our findings show that, at least where alternate predators are lacking, snakes may indeed affect prey populations.     

Sequestered defensive toxins in tetrapod vertebrates: principles, patterns, and prospects for future studies

Chemical defenses are widespread among animals, and the compounds involved may be either synthesized from nontoxic precursors or sequestered from an environmental source. Defensive sequestration has been studied extensively among invertebrates, but relatively few examples have been documented among vertebrates. Nonetheless, the number of described cases of defensive sequestration in tetrapod vertebrates has increased recently and includes diverse lineages of amphibians and reptiles (including birds). The best-known examples involve poison frogs, but other examples include natricine snakes that sequester toxins from amphibians and two genera of insectivorous birds. Commonalities among these diverse taxa include the combination of consuming toxic prey and exhibiting some form of passive defense, such as aposematism, mimicry, or presumptive death-feigning. Some species exhibit passive sequestration, in which dietary toxins simply require an extended period of time to clear from the tissues, whereas other taxa exhibit morphological or physiological specializations that enhance the uptake, storage, and/or delivery of exogenous toxins. It remains uncertain whether any sequestered toxins of tetrapods bioaccumulate across multiple trophic levels, but multitrophic accumulation seems especially likely in cases involving consumption of phytophagous or mycophagous invertebrates and perhaps consumption of poison frogs by snakes. We predict that additional examples of defensive toxin sequestration in amphibians and reptiles will be revealed by collaborations between field biologists and natural product chemists. Candidates for future investigation include specialized predators on mites, social insects, slugs, and toxic amphibians. Comprehensive studies of the ecological, evolutionary, behavioral, and regulatory aspects of sequestration will require teams of ecologists, systematists, ethologists, physiologists, molecular biologists, and chemists. The widespread occurrence of sequestered defenses has important implications for the ecology, evolution, and conservation of amphibians and reptiles.     

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

The interaction between reproductive cost and individual quality is mediated by oceanic conditions in a long-lived bird

Environmental variability, costs of reproduction, and heterogeneity in individual quality are three important sources of the temporal and interindividual variations in vital rates of wild populations. Based on an 18-year monitoring of an endangered, recently described, long-lived seabird, Monteiro's Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi), we designed multistate survival models to separate the effects of the reproductive cost (breeders vs. nonbreeders) and individual quality (successful vs. unsuccessful breeders) in relation to temporally variable demographic and oceanographic properties. The analysis revealed a gradient of individual quality from nonbreeders, to unsuccessful breeders, to successful breeders. The survival rates of unsuccessful breeders (0.90 +/- 0.023, mean +/- SE) tended to decrease in years of high average breeding success and were more sensitive to oceanographic variation than those of both (high-quality) successful breeders (0.97 +/- 0.015) and (low-quality) nonbreeders (0.83 +/- 0.028). Overall, our results indicate that reproductive costs act on individuals of intermediate quality and are mediated by environmental harshness.     

Use of linkage mapping and centrality analysis across habitat gradients to conserve connectivity of gray wolf populations in western North America

Centrality metrics evaluate paths between all possible pairwise combinations of sites on a landscape to rank the contribution of each site to facilitating ecological flows across the network of sites. Computational advances now allow application of centrality metrics to landscapes represented as continuous gradients of habitat quality. This avoids the binary classification of landscapes into patch and matrix required by patch-based graph analyses of connectivity. It also avoids the focus on delineating paths between individual pairs of core areas characteristic of most corridor- or linkage-mapping methods of connectivity analysis. Conservation of regional habitat connectivity has the potential to facilitate recovery of the gray wolf (Canis lupus), a species currently recolonizing portions of its historic range in the western United States. We applied 3 contrasting linkage-mapping methods (shortest path, current flow, and minimum-cost-maximum-flow) to spatial data representing wolf habitat to analyze connectivity between wolf populations in central Idaho and Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming). We then applied 3 analogous betweenness centrality metrics to analyze connectivity of wolf habitat throughout the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada to determine where it might be possible to facilitate range expansion and interpopulation dispersal. We developed software to facilitate application of centrality metrics. Shortest-path betweenness centrality identified a minimal network of linkages analogous to those identified by least-cost-path corridor mapping. Current flow and minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality identified diffuse networks that included alternative linkages, which will allow greater flexibility in planning. Minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality, by integrating both land cost and habitat capacity, allows connectivity to be considered within planning processes that seek to maximize species protection at minimum cost. Centrality analysis is relevant to conservation and landscape genetics at a range of spatial extents, but it may be most broadly applicable within single- and multispecies planning efforts to conserve regional habitat connectivity.     

Energy budgets reveal equal benefits of varied migration strategies in northern gannets

We investigated migration and wintering of adult northern gannets (Morus bassanus) breeding in east Scotland, North Sea, by deploying geolocation loggers over three winters. The wintering ranges of these birds varied from the North Sea to the Atlantic off West Africa. Flight time was taken as a proxy for migration and foraging effort. Gannets wintering off Africa had higher total flight times during migration than birds wintering further north. Total flight times in different wintering regions were generally low. Birds off West Africa consistently spent < 25 % of daylight hours in flight, but birds further north showed more variable values that may reflect more variable weather or food availability. Winter sea surface temperatures ranged from 9 °C (North Sea) to 16 °C (West Africa). Thermostatic costs in winter as estimated by measuring thermal conductance in carcasses in still air and water were 28 % higher in North Sea than off West Africa. This effect is aggravated by higher thermostatic costs caused by stronger wind chills in the North Sea compared to the conditions off West Africa. Birds wintering close to the UK arrived at the colony on average 12 days earlier than birds wintering off West Africa. We conclude that the net cost-benefit analysis may be similar for all wintering areas investigated.