A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

Investigation on organic pollutants from a domestic heating system using various solid biofuels

Various herbaceous biofuels (straw, whole plant cereals and set aside hay) and spruce wood were tested for their potential to form PCDD/F, PCPh, PCBz and PAH during combustion. The trials were conducted in an automatically charged multi-fuel furnace for domestic applications (50 kWth). Both, flue gas and the different ash fractions were analysed. CO-emission results show, that combustion conditions were relatively uniform (mean CO-level: 200 mg/m3 at 13% O2 in flue gas). Likewise, the TOC- and PAH-emissions in the fuel gas remained constantly on a relatively low level. However, for the PCDD/F, PCPh and PCBz increased emissions were detected when herbacious fuels were applied. This may be attributed to their higher chlorine concentration and the high ash content, which is responsible for increased dust emissions during combustion. Similar observations were also found for the PCDD/F-concentrations in the ashes. Combustion chamber ashes usually showed a drastically reduced contamination with highly toxical compounds, compared to the ash fraction from the heat exchanger ash or to chimney soot.     

Application of a purge and trap TDS-GC/MS procedure for the determination of emissions from flame retarded polymers

Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from different thermoplastic polymers used in electrotechnical applications were investigated using a purge and trap procedure that involved adsorption on Tenax GR. Results were compared to those for an operating TV set monitored in a test chamber. The analyses were in both cases carried out using thermodesorption gas chromatography with mass spectrometric detection (TDS-GC/MS). Substances identified were monomers, volatile additives, or related compounds. Special attention was given to the detection of halogenated compounds. Their origin was studied using reference samples and synthetic standards.     

Application of a stochastic, Weibull probability generator for replacing missing data on ambient concentrations of gaseous pollutants

A stochastic, three-parameter, Weibull frequency distribution, probability generator was tested by using theoretical data. Subsequently, it was applied to replace missing values of hourly atmospheric concentrations of trace gases that were continuously monitored at three study sites, for 2 years. The results were highly accurate and realistic. The cumulative means and the medians calculated by the Weibull method were intermediate between corresponding values calculated by uniform substitution of missing values with 'zero' or with half of the minimum detection limit of the appropriate measurement instrument used. Furthermore, the Weibull method allowed the replacement of as many as 100 missing values on either side of a measured data sub-set, without altering the overall characteristics of the true frequency distribution of the entire data set.     

A biological paleoindicator for early lake acidification: Mallomonadacean (Chrysophyceae) scale abundance in sediments

The Science of Nature -     

Phthalide als Hauptbestandteile des ätherischen Öls der Früchte vonMeum athamanticum Jacq.

The Science of Nature -     

IR- und1H-Kernresonanzmessungen an InO(OH)

The Science of Nature -     

Achondrogenesis type 2 diagnosed by transvaginal ultrasound at 12 weeks' gestation

Ultrasound examination at 12 weeks' gestation revealed severe generalised subcutaneous oedema in a pregnancy at risk for achondrogenesis type II. Transvaginal scanning confirmed the oedema and suggested abnormal limb development. The prenatal diagnosis was confirmed by X-ray examination after transvaginal termination.