Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

To stay or to go: voluntary survivor turnover following an organizational downsizing

This paper examines the relationship between survivor reactions to a downsizing and retention subsequent to a downsizing. We hypothesize that survivors who experience the downsizing as distributively, procedurally, and interactionally just and who see top management as trustworthy will feel more attached to the organization because each reduces the threat inherent in downsizing. In addition, we hypothesize that survivors who feel empowered will also feel more attached to the organization because they feel better able to cope with the downsizing. We further hypothesize that those survivors who feel more attached to the organization following the downsizing will be more likely to remain with the organization in the coming year. The theoretical model is tested on a sample of aerospace employees who survived an organizational downsizing. The trustworthiness of management, distributive justice, procedural justice, and three dimensions of empowerment are found to facilitate more organizational attachment. Higher levels of attachment are found, in turn, to facilitate less voluntary turnover in the year following the downsizing. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A first trimester trisomy 13/trisomy 18 risk algorithm combining fetal nuchal translucency thickness,maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A

This study examines 45 cases of trisomy 13 and 59 cases of trisomy 18 and reports an algorithm to identify pregnancies with a fetus affected by trisomy 13 or 18 by a combination of maternal age fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A at 11–14 weeks of gestation. In this mixed trisomy group the median MoM NT was increased at 2.819, whilst the median MoMs for free β-hCG and PAPP-A were reduced at 0.375 and 0.201 respectively. We predict that with the use of the combined trisomy 13 and 18 algorithm and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 will for a 0.3% false positive rate allow 95% of these chromosomal defects to be identified at 11–14 weeks. Such algorithms will enhance existing first trimester screening algorithms for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple and effective approach for detecting maternal cell contamination in molecular prenatal diagnosis

The presence of maternal cells in fetal samples constitutes a serious potential source for prenatal misdiagnosis. Here we present our approach for detecting maternal cell contamination (MCC) at prenatal diagnosis for eight monogenic disorders (autosomal recessive: β-thalassaemia, sickle-cell anaemia, cystic fibrosis, prelingual deafness; autosomal dominant: achondroplasia, Huntington disease, myotonic dystrophy, neurofibromatosis type I; X-linked: spinobulbar muscular atrophy). Our aim was to apply a simple and low-cost approach, which would easily and accurately provide information on the fetal tissue MCC status. MCC testing was applied to cases of recessive inheritance where the primary mutation screening of the fetus revealed the presence of the maternal mutation, to cases concerning dominant inheritance and to cases of multiple gestation. The potential presence of maternal cells was determined by the amplification of the 3′-HVR/APO B, D1S80, THO1 and VNTRI of vWf polymorphic loci, which have previously demonstrated high heterozygosity in Caucasians. Among 135 prenatal diagnoses, 44 finally needed to be tested for MCC (32.6%). MCC was detected in four cases, where DNA was isolated directly from chorionic villi samples (CVS), and in one case with DNA isolated directly from amniotic fluid (AF). In almost 90% of cases a simple test of one polymorphic locus provided sufficient information about MCC. The choice of the appropriate locus is therefore essential, while the simultaneous screening of both parents provides the means for distinguishing non-informative sites about MCC. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecophysiological indicators of the state of animal populations exposed to damaging factors

Indices of abundance and reproduction rate are considered in some groups of aquatic and terrestrial vertebrates from the zones of technogenic disasters. Upon a critical population decline caused by external destructive factors, such as emissions of acute ecotoxicants, the ecophysiological and behavioral compensatory mechanisms are activated, which provide for restoration of the total population size to the optimum within a short period of time. Environmental pollution with substances disturbing the reproductive function has the gravest consequences for animals. In this case, population size may remain fairly high, and, therefore, the effect of enhanced reproduction as a response to population decline does not take place, which eventually leads to a gradual but irreversible destruction of the population. Pathologies of reproduction should be used as a criterion for assessing the state of animals in the zones of technogenic disasters.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 32–38.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shilova, Shatunovskii.