A COMPARISON OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY-YIELD ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of four streamflow generation schemes for the use in the estimation of the required conservation storage for a single reservoir is presented. The comparison of the generating schemes should aid in the selection of an appropriate model type for the reservoir sizing problem. The streamflow generation models are compared using two criteria. The first comparison is between the statistics of the generated streamflow sequences and the corresponding statistics from the historical record. The second evaluation compares the median reservoir size determined by each model with the required storage based on the historical flow sequence. The results of a comparative analysis for monthly streamflow data for the Rzav River in Yugoslavia are presented and discussed. The results indicate that both evaluation criteria are required to discriminate between the various options.     

Integration of long-term fish kill data with ambient water quality monitoring data and application to water quality management

Almost half (354) of all fish kills (805) in South Carolina, USA, between 1978 and 1988 occurred in the coastal zone. These kills were analyzed for causative, spatial, and temporal associations as a distinct data set and as one integrated with ambient water quality monitoring data. Estuarine kills as a result of natural causes accounted for 42.8% followed by man-induced (35.1%) and undetermined causes (22.1%). Although general pesticide usage was responsible for 53.9% of man-induced kills, weed control activities around resorts and municipal areas accounted for slightly more kills (20.9%) than did agricultural (19.8%) or vector control (13.2%) uses. A dramatic decline in agricultural-related kills has been observed since 1986 as the integrated pest management approach was adopted by many farmers. When taken with the few kills (12.0%) resulting from wastewaters, this suggests that these two land-use activities have been successfully managed via existing programs (IPM and NPDES, respectively) to minimize their contributions to estuarine fish kills. Ambient trend monitoring data demonstrated no coastal-wide dispersion of pesticide pollution. These data confirmed the nature of fish kills to be site-specific, near-field events most closely associated with the contiguous land-use practices and intensities. Typically, fish kill data are considered as event-specific data limited to the bounds of that event only. Our analysis has shown, however, that a long-term data set, when integrated with ambient water quality data, can assist in regulatory and resource management decisions for both short- and long-term planning and protection applications.     

NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management – Part A: Methodology

In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada.     

Atrazine sorption-desorption hysteresis by sugarcane mulch residue

Sorption and desorption kinetics are essential components for modeling the movement and retention of applied agricultural chemicals in soils and the fraction of chemicals susceptible to runoff. In this study, we investigated the retention characteristics of sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrid) mulch residue for atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) based on studies of sorption-desorption kinetics. A sorption kinetic batch method was used to quantify retention of the mulch residue for a wide range of atrazine concentrations and reaction times. Desorption was performed following 504 h of sorption using successive dilutions, followed by methanol extraction. Atrazine retention by the mulch residue was well described using a linear model where the partitioning coefficient (K(d)) increased with reaction time from 10.40 to 23.4 cm3 g(-1) after 2 and 504 h, respectively. Values for mulch residue K(d) were an order of magnitude higher than those found for Commerce silt loam (fine-silty, mixed, superactive, nonacid, thermic Fluvaquentic Endoaquepts) where the sugarcane crop was grown. A kinetic multireaction model was successful in describing sorption behavior with reaction time. The model was equally successful in describing observed hysteretic atrazine behavior during desorption for all input concentrations. The model was concentration independent where one set of model parameters, which was derived from all batch results, was valid for the entire atrazine concentration range. Average atrazine recovery following six successive desorption steps were 63.67 +/- 4.38% of the amount adsorbed. Moreover, a hysteresis coefficient based on the difference in the area between sorption and desorption isotherms was capable of quantifying hysteresis of desorption isotherms.     

Explaining the Performance of Mature Municipal Solid Waste Recycling Programs

This paper assesses the contextual, programmatic and decision-making factors that affect the performance of mature municipal solid waste recycling programs. Tobit models were prepared for cities with populations of less than or more than 25?000 to facilitate analysis of recycling performance. Recycling participation rates were found to be higher among cities in both groups that offered more convenient recycling programs and whose residents had a higher mean household income. The larger cities that achieved higher participation rates employed a decision-making process known as ‘collaborative learning’, imposed sanctions on improper sorting recyclable materials, and had a larger non-minority population. Among smaller cities, higher participation was attained by using variable fee pricing for solid waste collection and by mandating household participation. The study findings suggest that future research should focus on improved ways to characterize and measure the decision-making processes used to make policy changes in order to facilitate analysis of the causal and temporal relationships between decision-making processes and program performance.     

Multiresource simulation for wildland management

The model presented here is a simulation of the watershed of the Little South Fork of the Cache la Poudre River system located in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. This simulation model, TERRA, provides information of resource interactions, ecosystem processes, and harvest ramifications for this watershed. The information is generated through sets of difference equations to represent process flows. The model has a modular design that separates the ecologic processes—weather conditions, hydrologic functions, forage and timber production, wildlife and domestic population dynamics, recreation use, and management activities—from the simulation planning overhead—updating, plotting, and printing.The model is designed such that the output is readily usable information for an allocation model and the decision-making process. This is accomplished by allowing different levels of specified management activities as input and producing responses and output on a per unit land area basis.This simulation is a useful research tool for estimating parameter and variable values and levels of management-resource interaction. Lack of a pertinent field data base inhibits the model from actually being used as a management tool in the planning process.Submitted for publication as Paper No. 1217 in the Journal Series of the Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Florida.